CSU AND SPD FARE POORLY IN BAVARIAN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS;

UNCLAS MUNICH 000102 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: CSU AND SPD FARE POORLY IN BAVARIAN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS; SMALL PARTIES GAIN -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. March 2 municipal elections in Bavaria exposed weakness on the part of the Christian Social Union (CSU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD),while showing significant gains for the smaller parties. The CSU's poor showing in larger cities has raised concern among the CSU's leadership that the party, while in no danger of losing its absolute majority, may face increasing challenges from a variety of parties in the 2008 state elections. End summary. -------------- SMALL PARTIES REAL WINNERS -------------- ¶2. While elements of both the CSU and SPD claim to have been the victors in Bavaria's March 2 municipal elections, the real winners were the smaller parties, including the Independents (Freie Waehler),the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Compared with the last municipal elections in 2002, the CSU lost 5.8 percentage points, and the SPD 2.5 percentage points. This translated into the CSU's worst result in municipal elections since 1966 with the party winning 40.3 percent of the vote, and an SPD low since 1946 of 22.6 percent across Bavaria. SPD incumbents were re-elected mayor in several larger cities, with 66.7 percent of the vote in Munich, 64.2 percent in Nuremberg, and 80.1 percent in Fuerth. ¶3. The CSU remained the strongest party overall, doing particularly well in rural areas, and may ultimately end up winning up to 50 of 71 Landrat (district administrator) positions. (Note: In some districts and cities, there will be second ballots on March 16, including major cities such as Augsburg, Regensburg and Wuerzburg.) The small parties saw an increase in support throughout Bavaria, particularly the Independents, with 19 percent of the vote, the Greens at 8.2 percent, and the FDP with 3.8 percent - its second best communal election result in Bavaria. Voter turnout, however, dropped below 2002 levels -- in some cities, not even half of the population went to the polls. -------------- GLASS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY? -------------- ¶4. Reactions from the CSU and SPD leadership were mixed. CSU Chairman Erwin Huber praised the election result as a good omen for the 2008 state elections, while Minister-President Guenther Beckstein warned that the CSU had to repair some negative developments and sharpen its profile in order to defend its absolute majority. CSU Bundestag Caucus Chairman Peter Ramsauer reportedly said in a CSU board meeting that the election results were a "wake-up call." SPD Landtag (state legislature) Caucus Chairman Franz Maget said the SPD's success in large cities was a demonstration that the CSU was no longer invincible, while Bavarian SPD chairman Ludwig Stiegler warned that without an increase in the SPD's voter base in rural areas, the party would do badly in the Landtag elections. ¶5. Bavarian political observers note that despite the lowest crime rate in over a decade, and perennially low unemployment, many voters appeared relatively discontent with the status quo this year, helping explain the weak showing by the larger parties. Smokers were dissatisfied with Bavaria's rigid smoking ban, medical doctors were unhappy with health reforms, others complained about educational and social shortcomings, and in Munich a majority of citizens have expressed opposition to the CSU-promoted Transrapid maglev train project. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. While municipal elections tend to be a referendum on "grass roots" issues and don't necessarily translate into broader implications for state and national voting, the CSU has reason to be concerned about the strength of the SPD-Greens alliances in large cities such as Munich and Nuremberg. Recent polls show the CSU would win about 50 percent of the vote if statewide elections were held today. Although the CSU is in no danger of losing its absolute majority in Bavaria, these results are well below the 55-60 percent Huber and Beckstein hope to see when voters go to the polls in the 2008 Landtag elections. ¶7. This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. ¶8. Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . NELSON