UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000587

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: IN PGOV KDEM PHUM PTER KWMN
SUBJECT: MADHYA PRADESH AND CHHATTISGARH: ELECTIONS, BUT NO NEW
LEADERS; MAHARASHTRA: NEW LEADERS BUT NO ELECTION

REF: A. MUMBAI 531, 560, 567

B. NEW DELI 3097

MUMBAI 00000587 001.2 OF 003



1. (U) Summary. In the recent state elections, the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) returned to power in both Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh with clear victories, though the Congress Party
made some gains. In both states, the BJP's development agenda
and putting forth well-known, respected leaders proved a
successful formula. The BJP's campaign theme that the
Congress-led central government is soft on terrorist did not
resonate with voters, according to interlocutors. In
Maharashtra, the Congress-led coalition government changed key
leaders in the state in the wake of loud public dissatisfaction
after the Mumbai terrorist attacks, but observers are not
convinced it will make a difference in the effectiveness of
governance. End Summary



Madhya Pradesh: BJP Returns with a Smaller Majority




2. (U) In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP again won confidently,
capturing 143 of 230 Assembly seats. The Congress Party won 71
seats, gaining 33. This was a massive exercise of democracy:
over 25 million people voted -a 70 percent turn out. There were
56 political parties fielding 3179 contestants for 230 seats,
almost half of whom were running as independents. Former BJP
Chief Minister Uma Bharati's party, the Bhariya Jan Shakti Party
(BJSP), contested 201 seats but won only five; Bharati did not
even win her own seat. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati's
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) picked up three seats, for a total of
seven. Four other seats were won by other minority party or
independent candidates. The post-election map shows the BJP
winning in most urban centers, including all of Indore and most
of Bhopal, but also in a patchwork of rural constituencies
across the state. The Congress Party gained seats in rural
constituencies and the BSP won only along the state's northern
border with Uttar Pradesh.




3. (U) Political observers agree that the BJP's success in
returning with a clear majority is attributable mainly to their

projection of a strong, respected, pro-development leader, the
Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, while the Congress was
unable to put forward a clear chief ministerial candidate among
the many senior politicians who hail from MP. BJP leaders
opined that the large turn out among women voters - 47 percent
of those who voted- affirmed the success of the state's
pro-woman programs, alleviating the financial burden families
face when they have a girl child. Both BJP and Congress leaders
noted that the BJP's replacement of over a third of its
incumbents who were seen as corrupt or incompetent with fresh
faces helped overcome anti-incumbent sentiments.




4. (U) According to media pundits and political observers, the
BJP received no mileage from its campaign theme that the
Congress-led coalition in the central government is soft on
terrorism. With the Mumbai terrorist attacks unfolding as
voters went to the polls in MP, many observers and Congress
leaders predicted that the Congress Party would suffer at the
ballot box, but the Congress picked up 33 seats from the BJP and
now holds 71 assembly seats. Dr. Manisha Tikekar, political
science professor at Mumbai University, explained that the
attacks in Mumbai did not translate into anger against the
Congress Party in other states. Smruti Koppikar, Chief of the
Mumbai Bureau of Outlook Magazine, told Congenoffs that the
BJP's anti-terrorism mantra was not persuasive because voters
remember that the Parliament House in New Delhi was attacked by
terrorists when the BJP controlled the government and hence,
voters are not convinced that the BJP would improve national
security.



Chhattisgarh: BJP Maintains Its Hold




5. (U) The BJP also maintained its hold in Chhattisgarh, winning
50 seats to the Congress' 38, with two seats going to the BSP.
There were 1006 candidates from 40 political parties running for

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90 seats. However, the margin of victory between the winning BJP
and runner up Congress in this election of 15.2 million voters
was razor thin, with the BJP garnering 40.46 percent of the
votes, and the Congress receiving 39.03; one newspaper reported
that the BJP won many of its seats by margins of less than one
percent. The BJP won as expected in urban centers, but also
picked up votes in rural and tribal areas, traditionally seen as
Congress Party strong-holds.




6. (U) Key to the BJP's success was its ability to project Chief
Minister Raman Singh as a respected, competent leader both on
the development front and the battle against Naxalites, the
Maoist insurgents who control wide swathes of the southern part
of the state. As in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP helped ensure its
success by replacing 18 of its 50 sitting Assembly members for
this year's polls. Also key to the BJP's success, according to
political observers, was the BJP's offer of rice at 2 rupees per
kilo (2 cents per pound), a persuasive campaign promise in one
of the poorest, most backward states in India. The BJP's
success was also a result of inroads the party made into tribal
areas traditionally held by the Congress, including the
Naxalite-affected districts of Bastar and Dantewada -here, the
BJP won in 23 of the 26 districts in the tribal belt. After the
election, Congress Party leader Ajit Jogi acknowledged, "We have
to start afresh in these areas to address the real problems of
tribals."



Mahjarashtra: Heads Roll, But More of the Same?




7. (U) In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, of the
Congress Party, and Deputy Chief Minister R.R. Patil, of the
National Congress Party (NCP), both resigned in the wake of
public criticism over the government's response to the Mumbai
terrorist attacks. See Reftel C. After three days of
complicated deliberations by Congress and NCP leaders in New
Delhi in an effort to maintain the Congress/NCP power sharing
alliance, Congress Party leader and former state Industry
Minister Ashok Chavan (son of former Chief Minister and Union
Home Minister S.B. Chavan) was named Chief Minister. NCP
leader and current Minister of Public Works, Chhagan Bhujbal,
was appointed the new Deputy Chief Minister. Bhujbal, a
prominent leader from the "other backward classes", began his
career as a Shiv Sena leader, but defected to the Congress Party
in 1990 then to the NCP in 1998. He served as Home Minister,
with the public security portfolio from 1999 - 2003, but was
removed from office after allegations surfaced implicating him
in several corruption scandals. Bhujbal retains his position of
Public Works Minister, but he was not given the Home Minister
position held by his predecessor, R.R. Patil. The crucial Home
portfolio, which covers police and public safety, was assigned
to NCP senior leader Jayant Patil, who was Finance Minister in
the previous government.




8. (SBU) In an environment where the public has demanded radical
change in leadership, most analysts agree that the choice of new
leaders for Maharashtra is uninspiring. Interlocutors told
Congenoff that Chavan could be a competent administrator, but is
not seen as the kind of dynamic leader the state needs now.
Smruti Koppikar of Outlook Magazine noted that the replacement
of the CM and DCM satisfied the public's need for retribution
and accountability, but did not produce any improvement in
leadership. She said neither has any particular expertise for
the job that lies ahead of them, though at least Chavan is seen
as a competent administrator ~ Other interlocutors confided to
Congenoffs that Chavan is out of his depth, and would be unable
to improve the security of the state. All agreed however, that
he is not likely to make a difference in the few months before
the national and state elections, both slated to take place in

2009. While expectations for Chief Minister Ashok Chavan remain
low, media reported after his first press conference that he
"surprised many officials with his clear vision and priorities."
He told journalists that getting development projects moving,
plugging regional imbalances and getting power generation
projects moving were his top priorities. Despite his reputation
for corruption, Bhujbal is seen as a more dynamic leader with
experience. One major real estate developer told Congenoff,
"All politicians are corrupt; the question is who can get things

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done. Bhujbal is a good administrator."






9. (U) Media coverage of the appointments focused on the
political maneuvering that brought each of them to their new
positions --Chavan as the choice of the Congress Party, and
Bhujbal as the choice of Shawad Pawar, leader of the NCP.
(Note: The governing coalition is a delicate balance. While
the NCP has most seats in the Assembly, the Congress leadership
at the center insisted that a Congress Party leader hold the
Chief Minister's position; the NPC, retains most of the
important - and money making - seats, such as Home, Public
Works, Finance, and others. End Note.) Political observers
noted that discussion of the leaders' fitness for office was
lost in the coverage of the political machinations in New Delhi.
Baljeet Parmar, of DNA noted, "The change of guard has hardly
helped ... Those loyal to the respective parties got plum
postings with the patronage of their political masters. The
concept of appointing the right man for the right job was
buried."




10. (U) Comment. It appears from the MP and Chhattisgarh
elections that strong, well-respected leaders have resonance
with voters. The BJP won both states not only because they did
relatively well in fulfilling voter expectations on development,
but also because they put forward strong leaders who were not
afraid to make radical changes among the party's candidates,
replacing incumbents who were not performing, in order to
respond to voter sentiment. The public clamor for strong
leaders is especially pronounced in Maharashtra following the
terrorist attacks. So far, observers are disappointed by the
Congress' and NCP's choices. The Congress is taking a chance
with the untested Chavan; if he fails to provide good, competent
leadership, it will not bode well for the Congress Party in
Maharashtra, one of India's largest and wealthiest states, which
faces both national and state elections next year. End Comment.
FOLMSBEE