MADHYA PRADESH AND CHHATTISGARH: ELECTIONS, BUT NO NEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000587 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: IN PGOV KDEM PHUM PTER KWMN SUBJECT: MADHYA PRADESH AND CHHATTISGARH: ELECTIONS, BUT NO NEW LEADERS; MAHARASHTRA: NEW LEADERS BUT NO ELECTION REF: A. MUMBAI 531, 560, 567 ¶B. NEW DELI 3097 MUMBAI 00000587 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) Summary. In the recent state elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) returned to power in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh with clear victories, though the Congress Party made some gains. In both states, the BJP's development agenda and putting forth well-known, respected leaders proved a successful formula. The BJP's campaign theme that the Congress-led central government is soft on terrorist did not resonate with voters, according to interlocutors. In Maharashtra, the Congress-led coalition government changed key leaders in the state in the wake of loud public dissatisfaction after the Mumbai terrorist attacks, but observers are not convinced it will make a difference in the effectiveness of governance. End Summary Madhya Pradesh: BJP Returns with a Smaller Majority ¶2. (U) In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP again won confidently, capturing 143 of 230 Assembly seats. The Congress Party won 71 seats, gaining 33. This was a massive exercise of democracy: over 25 million people voted -a 70 percent turn out. There were 56 political parties fielding 3179 contestants for 230 seats, almost half of whom were running as independents. Former BJP Chief Minister Uma Bharati's party, the Bhariya Jan Shakti Party (BJSP),contested 201 seats but won only five; Bharati did not even win her own seat. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) picked up three seats, for a total of seven. Four other seats were won by other minority party or independent candidates. The post-election map shows the BJP winning in most urban centers, including all of Indore and most of Bhopal, but also in a patchwork of rural constituencies across the state. The Congress Party gained seats in rural constituencies and the BSP won only along the state's northern border with Uttar Pradesh. ¶3. (U) Political observers agree that the BJP's success in returning with a clear majority is attributable mainly to their projection of a strong, respected, pro-development leader, the Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, while the Congress was unable to put forward a clear chief ministerial candidate among the many senior politicians who hail from MP. BJP leaders opined that the large turn out among women voters - 47 percent of those who voted- affirmed the success of the state's pro-woman programs, alleviating the financial burden families face when they have a girl child. Both BJP and Congress leaders noted that the BJP's replacement of over a third of its incumbents who were seen as corrupt or incompetent with fresh faces helped overcome anti-incumbent sentiments. ¶4. (U) According to media pundits and political observers, the BJP received no mileage from its campaign theme that the Congress-led coalition in the central government is soft on terrorism. With the Mumbai terrorist attacks unfolding as voters went to the polls in MP, many observers and Congress leaders predicted that the Congress Party would suffer at the ballot box, but the Congress picked up 33 seats from the BJP and now holds 71 assembly seats. Dr. Manisha Tikekar, political science professor at Mumbai University, explained that the attacks in Mumbai did not translate into anger against the Congress Party in other states. Smruti Koppikar, Chief of the Mumbai Bureau of Outlook Magazine, told Congenoffs that the BJP's anti-terrorism mantra was not persuasive because voters remember that the Parliament House in New Delhi was attacked by terrorists when the BJP controlled the government and hence, voters are not convinced that the BJP would improve national security. Chhattisgarh: BJP Maintains Its Hold ¶5. (U) The BJP also maintained its hold in Chhattisgarh, winning 50 seats to the Congress' 38, with two seats going to the BSP. There were 1006 candidates from 40 political parties running for MUMBAI 00000587 002.2 OF 003 90 seats. However, the margin of victory between the winning BJP and runner up Congress in this election of 15.2 million voters was razor thin, with the BJP garnering 40.46 percent of the votes, and the Congress receiving 39.03; one newspaper reported that the BJP won many of its seats by margins of less than one percent. The BJP won as expected in urban centers, but also picked up votes in rural and tribal areas, traditionally seen as Congress Party strong-holds. ¶6. (U) Key to the BJP's success was its ability to project Chief Minister Raman Singh as a respected, competent leader both on the development front and the battle against Naxalites, the Maoist insurgents who control wide swathes of the southern part of the state. As in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP helped ensure its success by replacing 18 of its 50 sitting Assembly members for this year's polls. Also key to the BJP's success, according to political observers, was the BJP's offer of rice at 2 rupees per kilo (2 cents per pound),a persuasive campaign promise in one of the poorest, most backward states in India. The BJP's success was also a result of inroads the party made into tribal areas traditionally held by the Congress, including the Naxalite-affected districts of Bastar and Dantewada -here, the BJP won in 23 of the 26 districts in the tribal belt. After the election, Congress Party leader Ajit Jogi acknowledged, "We have to start afresh in these areas to address the real problems of tribals." Mahjarashtra: Heads Roll, But More of the Same? ¶7. (U) In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, of the Congress Party, and Deputy Chief Minister R.R. Patil, of the National Congress Party (NCP),both resigned in the wake of public criticism over the government's response to the Mumbai terrorist attacks. See Reftel C. After three days of complicated deliberations by Congress and NCP leaders in New Delhi in an effort to maintain the Congress/NCP power sharing alliance, Congress Party leader and former state Industry Minister Ashok Chavan (son of former Chief Minister and Union Home Minister S.B. Chavan) was named Chief Minister. NCP leader and current Minister of Public Works, Chhagan Bhujbal, was appointed the new Deputy Chief Minister. Bhujbal, a prominent leader from the "other backward classes", began his career as a Shiv Sena leader, but defected to the Congress Party in 1990 then to the NCP in 1998. He served as Home Minister, with the public security portfolio from 1999 - 2003, but was removed from office after allegations surfaced implicating him in several corruption scandals. Bhujbal retains his position of Public Works Minister, but he was not given the Home Minister position held by his predecessor, R.R. Patil. The crucial Home portfolio, which covers police and public safety, was assigned to NCP senior leader Jayant Patil, who was Finance Minister in the previous government. ¶8. (SBU) In an environment where the public has demanded radical change in leadership, most analysts agree that the choice of new leaders for Maharashtra is uninspiring. Interlocutors told Congenoff that Chavan could be a competent administrator, but is not seen as the kind of dynamic leader the state needs now. Smruti Koppikar of Outlook Magazine noted that the replacement of the CM and DCM satisfied the public's need for retribution and accountability, but did not produce any improvement in leadership. She said neither has any particular expertise for the job that lies ahead of them, though at least Chavan is seen as a competent administrator ~ Other interlocutors confided to Congenoffs that Chavan is out of his depth, and would be unable to improve the security of the state. All agreed however, that he is not likely to make a difference in the few months before the national and state elections, both slated to take place in ¶2009. While expectations for Chief Minister Ashok Chavan remain low, media reported after his first press conference that he "surprised many officials with his clear vision and priorities." He told journalists that getting development projects moving, plugging regional imbalances and getting power generation projects moving were his top priorities. Despite his reputation for corruption, Bhujbal is seen as a more dynamic leader with experience. One major real estate developer told Congenoff, "All politicians are corrupt; the question is who can get things MUMBAI 00000587 003.2 OF 003 done. Bhujbal is a good administrator." ¶9. (U) Media coverage of the appointments focused on the political maneuvering that brought each of them to their new positions --Chavan as the choice of the Congress Party, and Bhujbal as the choice of Shawad Pawar, leader of the NCP. (Note: The governing coalition is a delicate balance. While the NCP has most seats in the Assembly, the Congress leadership at the center insisted that a Congress Party leader hold the Chief Minister's position; the NPC, retains most of the important - and money making - seats, such as Home, Public Works, Finance, and others. End Note.) Political observers noted that discussion of the leaders' fitness for office was lost in the coverage of the political machinations in New Delhi. Baljeet Parmar, of DNA noted, "The change of guard has hardly helped ... Those loyal to the respective parties got plum postings with the patronage of their political masters. The concept of appointing the right man for the right job was buried." ¶10. (U) Comment. It appears from the MP and Chhattisgarh elections that strong, well-respected leaders have resonance with voters. The BJP won both states not only because they did relatively well in fulfilling voter expectations on development, but also because they put forward strong leaders who were not afraid to make radical changes among the party's candidates, replacing incumbents who were not performing, in order to respond to voter sentiment. The public clamor for strong leaders is especially pronounced in Maharashtra following the terrorist attacks. So far, observers are disappointed by the Congress' and NCP's choices. The Congress is taking a chance with the untested Chavan; if he fails to provide good, competent leadership, it will not bode well for the Congress Party in Maharashtra, one of India's largest and wealthiest states, which faces both national and state elections next year. End Comment. FOLMSBEE