UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000572

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF KDEM ECON IN
SUBJECT: ELECTION IN MADHYA PRADESH: MUMBAI TERROR ATTACKS DIM
CONGRESS' HOPE

REF: A. MUMBAI 386

B. MUMBAI 531

MUMBAI 00000572 001.3 OF 003



1. (U) Summary: Voters went to the polls in Madhya Pradesh
(MP) on November 27, just 12 hours after terrorists launched a
series of coordinated attacks on Mumbai. Though the Congress
Party's internal calculations on the day prior to polls showed
that both the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) and Congress
were evenly pitted in this important state race, by nightfall
on election day, the Congress had concluded that the Mumbai
attacks would have a serious impact on their electoral chances.
Election turnout was high, usually a good sign of strong
anti-incumbency, but the talk at polling places centered on the
terrorist attacks, bringing home the BJP's campaign message that
the Congress Party is ill-equipped to deal with terrorism.
Development and women's programs likely also helped BJP.
Nevertheless, interlocutors do not discount anti-incumbency
sentiment against the BJP, or the impact of third parties, and
project that the BJP will be returned with a smaller majority.
End Summary.

Terrorist Attacks Change the Equation

--------------


2. (SBU) On November 27, 12 hours into the terrorist attack on
Mumbai, 35 million voters in Madhya Pradesh went to the polls to
elect 230 state assembly representatives. The BJP enjoyed a
strong majority going into the elections, holding 173 out of 230
seats. By all accounts, the party ran a good campaign under its
current Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. In the run up to
the elections, Congress leaders were optimistic that the party
could make electoral gains and erode the BJP's lead in the
state, but could not achieve a majority on its own. A day
before the polls, an optimistic Maharashtra Congress party
strategist working on the campaign in MP told Congenoffs that
his calculations and constituency level surveys showed that
neither party would get a clear majority, but that "friends of
the Congress" would help the party form a governing coalition.
"Uma Bharti [of the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party] would help us

form the government, one way or another," he exulted, counting
on that party to take away votes from the BJP.


3. (SBU) In the weeks before the polls, a BJP official in
Maharashtra told Congenoffs that the BJP's criticisms of the
Congress-led UPA government in New Delhi as being ineffective in
tackling terrorism was finding traction in races at the state
level. The series of bombings in Bangalore, Ahmedabad and Delhi
this year had made the people angry about the UPA's failure to
ensure public safety. Throughout the campaign, the BJP accused
the Congress of being unprepared to deal with terrorism; as all
India sat glued to their TV sets watching the Mumbai terrorist
attacks unfold, the BJP's message was reinforced. MP Congress
leader L.S. Hardenia said "the attack was the topic of
conversation at every polling place." Before the elections,
Hardenia was hopeful of Congress emerging as the coalition
leader, but since the terrorist attacks on Mumbai, that
possibility seems more remote, Hardenia said.

BJP Out-Campaigns the Congress

--------------


4. (SBU) For the Congress, the terrorist attacks in Mumbai are
only one factor; the Congress was disadvantaged on several
fronts during the campaign season. Facing a financial crunch,
the party decided to concentrate campaigning on 155 "winnable"
seats where its chances were best, foregoing aggressive
campaigns in 75 districts where the BJP was certain to win.
Interlocutors also agreed that compared to the BJP, the
Congress' campaign was not as well organized or vibrant. The
BJP and the media criticized the Congress' decision to not name
a clear challenger to Chief Minister Chauhan. There were six
Congress aspirants for the Chief Minister's job, which political
observers said harmed the party's prospects.


5. (SBU) In contrast, the BJP capitalized on every opportunity,
especially touting its development agenda. Most business
interlocutors, as well as even some Congress rivals, concede
that the incumbent Chief Minister has a good, pro-development
image. According to observers, the BJP government showed
significant progress in building road infrastructure during its
tenure (though critics contend BJP has not done enough on other
development fronts). Observers also say that the BJP has been
able to claim credit for the moderately successful
implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee

MUMBAI 00000572 002.2 OF 003


program, which was launched by the UPA coalition. A Congress
leader from the Malwa region conceded, "Though most of the
conceptualizing and the money for these schemes came from the
Congress-led UPA government, the voter good-will will accrue to
the state government (BJP), because states implement these
programs."


6. (U) Anil Dave BJP Secretary for MP was not at all confident,
however, that BJP would sweep the elections. He indicated that
as many as 50 of the 230 seats will be decided by margins
narrower than 1000 votes because of the number of multi-party
races on the ballot this year. According to Dave, the BJP's
strengths going into the election were its better organization
and its ability to control the message, leaving Congress always
responding to BJP criticisms and unable to lead on any issue. In
contrast to other interlocutors, Dave told Congenoffs that the
terrorist attacks would only have a limited impact on the
electoral results in MP.

Whatever Happens, Blame It on Anti-Incumbency

--------------


7. (SBU) Despite the BJP's strengths in the campaign, the BJP's
Dave acknowledged that anti-incumbency was a significant factor
in the elections. Interlocutors told Congenoffs that the BJP's
campaign theme focusing on anti-terrorism and public safety is a
double-edged sword for the ruling BJP party: that in most urban
centers (traditional BJP bastions), voters blame the BJP for a
rising crime rate, and poor leadership of the ineffective and
corrupt police. Even the BJP's touted record on development was
questioned by voters. The BJP claimed development was its prime
accomplishment, but detractors of MP's incumbent BJP government
pointed out that the state capital, Bhopal, gets potable water
only once every two days, and rural areas have power-shortages
of 13 hours or more. The turnover in leadership in MP -- three
Chief Ministers since the BJP came to power in 2003 -- was also
seen as a weakness for the BJP. In an editorial in the Times of
India discussing the MP elections, Swami Ayyar pointed out that
almost all Indian states since the mid-nineties have been voting
out incumbents, mainly because voters demand more progress on
development issues than the crumbling state finances can
deliver.

BJP's Anti-Anti-Incumbency Moves Help Third Parties

-------------- --------------


8. (U) Recognizing the threat of anti-incumbency sentiments, the
BJP changed more than one-third of its incumbent MLAs, and
dropped ministers who had serious corruption investigations
underway against them. This tactic was used in the concurrent
Chhattisgarh polls, and with much success in the December 2007
BJP victory in Gujarat. However, in a number of constituencies,
erstwhile BJP candidates denied a BJP ticket in this election
defected to other third parties, fractionalizing the BJP vote
base and causing headaches for the BJP.


9. (U) The three parties that benefited from these moves the
most were Uma Bharati's Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJSP),
Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party
(SP). Ousted former BJP Chief Minister Uma Bharati floated her
own party, the BJSP, in March 2006 when she was thrown out of
the BJP, and fielded candidates in over 200 seats. Uttar
Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati, who many believe has designs on
national power in 2009, was also using MP as a testing ground
for her national ambitions. As it did in Gujarat, the BSP
fielded candidates in almost all constituencies, though the
party is only competitive in a few races. The Samajwadi Party,
loosely allied with UPA coalition since July 2008, fielded its
own slate of candidates, contesting over 200 seats.


10. (U) Journalists and political observers noted that in nearly
100 out of the 230 seats, the contest was between four strong
candidates -- BJP, Congress and two spoilers from either the
BSP, BJSP, SP or a local tribal party, the Gondwana Ganatantra
Party (GGP). The SP and the GGP were important in the state's
northern Gwalior, Rewa, Bundelkhand regions bordering Rajasthan
and Uttar Pradesh, while the BSP and BJSP were putting pressure
on the Congress and the BJP respectively all over the state.
The BSP, in particular, fielded nearly 66 high-caste candidates,
disgruntled aspirants from both the Congress and the BJP. Known
as a charismatic orator, Bharati drew large crowds for her
rallies in Bhopal and other urban centers.


MUMBAI 00000572 003.2 OF 003



11. (SBU) Though observers believe that anti-incumbency
sentiment will influence voting, it may not help the Congress.
MP Congress leader L.S. Hardenia predicts that enough of that
anger at corruption and inept government would go to third
parties, leaving Congress again in the position of runner-up in
many seats. According to Hardenia, Mayawati's BSP party ran a
strong campaign and he expects the BSP to win 10-15 seats. Uma
Bharati's BJSP stood to win 10-15 seats also, according to
Hardenia. While Hardenia did not see Bharati or Mayawati
forming a coalition with BJP, he thought that either might
authorize their candidates to negotiate independently to form a
coalition government.

Voter Turnout Strong, BJP Credits Pro-Woman Programs

-------------- --------------


12. Dave told Congenoff that voter turnout was high, at close
to 70 percent, with woman voting in equal percentages to men.
(Note: Per MP's chief election officer, voter percentage in
2003 was 67.5 percent. End Note.) In rural areas, he said,
voting was as high as 80 percent. Dave and other political
observers have noted that that voter turnout above 62 percent
usually signals the need of the people to voice their
dissatisfaction with the incumbent government. Ever hopefully,
Dave interprets the high turnout among women in this election as
signaling the success of the BJP's program targeted at women.
(One program offers cash payments for the birth of girl
children, educational benefits for girls to reduce their burden
on parents, and promises cash payments when the girl turns 18 to
help defray marriage costs.)


13. (SBU) Comment: The terrorist attacks on Mumbai will
undoubtedly have an impact on voter sentiment in MP, but they
will have been one of many issues on voter's minds on Election
Day. Going into the elections, the BJP has a formidable lead,
and can argue, convincingly, that it governed at least as well
as previous Congress administrations. Nevertheless,
anti-incumbency and new competition from third parties will make
it difficult for both the Congress and BJP to gain seats,
perhaps a preview to the national elections next year. Always
eager and opportunistic for power, it is not clear how third
parties might align themselves after the elections, and
surprising combinations are possible. Polling results are due
to be released on December 8. End Comment.
FOLMSBEE