RUSSIA-UKRAINE: NATO AND HOLODOMOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000911

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV UP RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA-UKRAINE: NATO AND HOLODOMOR

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons
1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary. FM Lavrov, during his April 2 address to
the Duma, characterized NATO enlargement as "artificial and
unnecessary," while arguing that NATO members could no longer
solve important tasks without Russia's help. While the Duma
held a special hearing on the friendship agreement with
Ukraine on April 1, both print and electronic media churned
out ample critiques on Kyiv's "ill-guided" flirtation with
NATO and the U.S.'s push for NATO enlargement. The Duma, on
April 2, added its voice to the chorus by passing a
resolution on Holodomor victims that rejected the GOU's
efforts to re-classify the tragedy as genocide. Former PM
Primakov, meeting with the Ambassador, reiterated his
criticism of U.S. encouragement of MAP for Georgia and
Ukraine. End summary.

Russia's Red Line
--------------


2. (U) FM Lavrov, during his April 2 address to the Duma,
sharply criticized NATO enlargement, warning that there would
be a "mature" Russian reaction based on pragmatism and
national interests. Lavrov argued that many issues faced by
the international community, including combating terrorism,
narco-trafficking, cyberterrorism, and Afghanistan, could not
be addressed effectively without Russia's involvement. In
regard to the Holodomor, Lavrov warned against any attempt to
"remake" history.

Duma Speaks on NATO and Holodomor
--------------


3. (U) On April 1, the Duma CIS Committee held a special
hearing on the status of Russia-Ukraine relations and the two
countries' compliance with the obligations stipulated in the
bilateral friendship agreement. The vote on the
recommendations is scheduled for April 4. Citing the lack of
support among Ukrainian citizens, Duma Speaker Gryzlov said
that he was categorically opposed to Ukraine's NATO
membership and the Alliance's expansion towards the Russian
border.


4. (U) On April 2, the Duma passed a resolution on the 75th
anniversary of the Holodomor, honoring the victims of the
famine in the 1930s throughout the former Soviet Union and
rejected the GOU's claim that the famine was targeted against
the Ukrainians. During the discussion session prior to the
vote (370 to 56),many deputies linked Ukraine's NATO
aspirations with the GOU push to re-classify the Holodomor as
genocide -- both anti-Russian tactics, arguing that many
other ethnic groups, including Russians, were victimized by
the Soviet regime.

MFA Views
--------------


5. (C) At the Duma's April 1 hearing, DFM Karasin said that
Ukraine's NATO membership would lead to a serious crisis in
Russia's bilateral relationship with Ukraine, which would
affect overall European security. Karasin went on to say
that it was Ukraine's sovereign right to choose a security
alliance but it was being done "in defiance of the will of
the people." MFA Second CIS Department Director Viktor
Sorokin told us April 1 that Ukraine's NATO entry would force
Moscow to re-examine all aspects of its bilateral
relationship with Kyiv. He failed to understand the U.S.'s
push for NATO enlargement when the U.S. leadership was fully
aware of the GOR position. Moving NATO to the Russian border
while talking about a good partnership would be "strange"
politics, he added.

Primakov Joins In
--------------


6. (C) In an April 2 meeting with the Ambassador, former
Prime Minister Primakov lashed out against U.S. efforts to
push MAP for Ukraine and Georgia, arguing that it
"infuriated" Russians and threatened other areas of U.S. -
Russia strategic cooperation. Noting that he would appear on
national television later that day, Primakov stressed that he
would be questioned on whether Russia should honor its border
treaty with Ukraine (i.e., revisiting Crimea's status) and
said "this is the kind of discussion that MAP produces."
Primakov said that Russia would never return to the era of
the early 1990s and it would be a "colossal mistake" to think
that Russian reactions today would mirror those during its
time of strategic weakness. Russia had its own national
interests and would defend them, Primakov underscored.
BURNS