RUSSIA-UKRAINE: NATO AND HOLODOMOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000911 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV UP RS SUBJECT: RUSSIA-UKRAINE: NATO AND HOLODOMOR Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary. FM Lavrov, during his April 2 address to the Duma, characterized NATO enlargement as "artificial and unnecessary," while arguing that NATO members could no longer solve important tasks without Russia's help. While the Duma held a special hearing on the friendship agreement with Ukraine on April 1, both print and electronic media churned out ample critiques on Kyiv's "ill-guided" flirtation with NATO and the U.S.'s push for NATO enlargement. The Duma, on April 2, added its voice to the chorus by passing a resolution on Holodomor victims that rejected the GOU's efforts to re-classify the tragedy as genocide. Former PM Primakov, meeting with the Ambassador, reiterated his criticism of U.S. encouragement of MAP for Georgia and Ukraine. End summary. Russia's Red Line -------------- ¶2. (U) FM Lavrov, during his April 2 address to the Duma, sharply criticized NATO enlargement, warning that there would be a "mature" Russian reaction based on pragmatism and national interests. Lavrov argued that many issues faced by the international community, including combating terrorism, narco-trafficking, cyberterrorism, and Afghanistan, could not be addressed effectively without Russia's involvement. In regard to the Holodomor, Lavrov warned against any attempt to "remake" history. Duma Speaks on NATO and Holodomor -------------- ¶3. (U) On April 1, the Duma CIS Committee held a special hearing on the status of Russia-Ukraine relations and the two countries' compliance with the obligations stipulated in the bilateral friendship agreement. The vote on the recommendations is scheduled for April 4. Citing the lack of support among Ukrainian citizens, Duma Speaker Gryzlov said that he was categorically opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and the Alliance's expansion towards the Russian border. ¶4. (U) On April 2, the Duma passed a resolution on the 75th anniversary of the Holodomor, honoring the victims of the famine in the 1930s throughout the former Soviet Union and rejected the GOU's claim that the famine was targeted against the Ukrainians. During the discussion session prior to the vote (370 to 56),many deputies linked Ukraine's NATO aspirations with the GOU push to re-classify the Holodomor as genocide -- both anti-Russian tactics, arguing that many other ethnic groups, including Russians, were victimized by the Soviet regime. MFA Views -------------- ¶5. (C) At the Duma's April 1 hearing, DFM Karasin said that Ukraine's NATO membership would lead to a serious crisis in Russia's bilateral relationship with Ukraine, which would affect overall European security. Karasin went on to say that it was Ukraine's sovereign right to choose a security alliance but it was being done "in defiance of the will of the people." MFA Second CIS Department Director Viktor Sorokin told us April 1 that Ukraine's NATO entry would force Moscow to re-examine all aspects of its bilateral relationship with Kyiv. He failed to understand the U.S.'s push for NATO enlargement when the U.S. leadership was fully aware of the GOR position. Moving NATO to the Russian border while talking about a good partnership would be "strange" politics, he added. Primakov Joins In -------------- ¶6. (C) In an April 2 meeting with the Ambassador, former Prime Minister Primakov lashed out against U.S. efforts to push MAP for Ukraine and Georgia, arguing that it "infuriated" Russians and threatened other areas of U.S. - Russia strategic cooperation. Noting that he would appear on national television later that day, Primakov stressed that he would be questioned on whether Russia should honor its border treaty with Ukraine (i.e., revisiting Crimea's status) and said "this is the kind of discussion that MAP produces." Primakov said that Russia would never return to the era of the early 1990s and it would be a "colossal mistake" to think that Russian reactions today would mirror those during its time of strategic weakness. Russia had its own national interests and would defend them, Primakov underscored. BURNS