THE ISLAMIC FACTOR IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000751 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KISL PINR SOCI RS SUBJECT: THE ISLAMIC FACTOR IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY REF: A. MOSCOW 346 ¶B. MOSCOW 282 ¶C. MOSCOW 705 ¶D. MOSCOW 390 ¶E. MOSCOW 184 ¶F. 07 MOSCOW 4447 ¶G. 07 MOSCOW 5681 ¶H. 07 MOSCOW 5734 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Expanding Russia's ties with the Islamic world has been a priority for Putin in his efforts to revitalize Russian foreign policy. The GOR has increased bilateral diplomacy with Muslim states, ratcheted up involvement in the Middle East peace process (MEPP) and the Organization of Islamic Conferences (OIC),and strengthened its public diplomacy. The payoffs have been an enhanced diplomatic role in the Middle East and Asia with attendant opportunities for trade and investment. GOR outreach to the Muslim world is also an effort to limit foreign support for Chechen separatists and deflect Islamic extremists who have not targeted Russia as they have the U.S. and Europe. While Russia's Muslim minority is largely indifferent to foreign policy, the devout among them continue to view Russia through the prism of its violent history in the Caucasus. End summary. Russia's Islamic Offensive -------------- ¶2. (C) Russia initiated a diplomatic offensive to improve relations with the Islamic world, including the GOR's active role in the MEPP, its relations with "rogue states" such as Iran and Syria, and diplomacy toward far flung Muslim countries from the Persian Gulf to Southeast Asia. Russia's Islamic offensive has been part of the reorientation of Russian foreign policy under Putin. Although Russia shared the U.S. goal of defeating terrorism and securing Afghanistan, GOR opposition to Iraq and its more conciliatory approach to settling the Iranian nuclear issue allowed Russia to present itself as a partner to Muslim states and counterbalance to the U.S. As Boris Makarenko of the Center for Political Technologies explained, Russia's new Islamic orientation allowed it to "score successes in the East, which reinforced its position in the West." ¶3. (C) Russia's considerable Muslim population positioned it to claim a "natural and special relationship" with the Muslim world. Russia's Muslim minority, estimated at 15 percent, or 21 million of its 142 million people, allows the GOR to play up Russia's "special status" as a multi-denominational country. The GOR seeks to straddle the Christian and Muslim worlds much the way it positions itself a Eurasian power balancing the West and the East. Carnegie Moscow Center analyst Aleksey Malashenko characterized Russia as attempting to play the role of "bridge" or "mediator" in international affairs, including in the MEPP where it maintained communications with Hamas, and used its relationship with Damascus to ensure Syria's participation in the Annapolis summit (ref A). ¶4. (C) Russia saw its claim to be a multi-denominational country recognized when it was granted observer status in the OIC in 2005. The GOR was also able to convince the Saudis to increase significantly the annual quota for Russian pilgrims to Mecca, satisfying Russia's Muslim leadership. Domestically, GOR efforts helped convince Muslim leaders to back Putin politically, but also emboldened Muslims and may have contributed to a nationalist backlash against Muslims' increased public profile. Official claims that Russia is a multi-denominational or multiethnic nation obviously fly in the face of nationalists' "Russia for Russians" propaganda. A Dialogue, Not a Clash of Civilizations -------------- ¶5. (C) Russia's Islamic offensive has been a mix of diplomatic efforts and quasi-official public diplomacy. In a January address to Muslim diplomats, Foreign Minister Lavrov highlighted Putin's 2007 trips to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, and Indonesia as evidence of the "close interaction" between Russia and Islamic states. "There are no political, ideological or other controversies in our relations," said Lavrov, who also spoke of Russia and the Islamic world as "partners" fighting terrorism and settling regional crises. Also in January, the Chairman of the Russian Mufti Council, Sheik Ravil Gaynutdin, went to Malaysia to meet Prime Minister Badawi and told an international conference on Islamic civilization that Malaysian society presented an example for Russian Muslims how to combine modernization with Islam while rejecting MOSCOW 00000751 002 OF 003 extremism. ¶6. (C) Russian public diplomacy uses a variety of tools to reach the Muslim world, including cable TV channel Russia Today's Arabic service begun in 2005. Moscow also established the Russia-Muslim World Strategic Vision Group in 2006 to bring together representatives of Russia and Islamic nations. Although the first meeting was held with great fanfare under former Prime Minister Yevgeniy Primakov, participants complained that it was just another talking shop and the initiative appears to have fizzled out. RIA Novesti commentator Marianna Belenkaya told us that Russia's Islamic offensive produced real results in the realm of politics and trade but little when it came to settling the "clash of civilizations." ¶7. (C) The "Dialogue of Civilizations" (DOC) has been a more lasting effort to promote ties with Muslims, thanks in part to its founder, Russian Railways President Vladimir Yakunin. Established in 2002 as a Russian answer to Davos that offers an "alternative model of globalization" and promotes dialogue, this ostensible NGO is tied to the Kremlin through Yakunin. Offering a variety of programs, the DOC remains focused on providing Russian officials a platform to further relations with the Muslim world by holding seminars and presenting awards to figures such as former Iranian President Khatami and Jordanian King Abdullah. Yakunin led a large Russian delegation to Bahrain in January for a conference on religious dialogue. He was accompanied by Deputy Foreign Minister Saltanov, who used the opportunity to promote the GOR's idea for a security and cooperation organization in the Persian Gulf (ref B). Russia's Gain: Political and Economic Ties -------------- ¶8. (C) Putin's historic trips to Muslim states, followed by other official visits, were reciprocated by Saudi princes, Bangladeshi ministers and Lebanese parliamentarians, who have become a regular presence in Moscow. Part of the payoff for Russia has been the possibility of energy deals and arms sales. Trade and investment were high on the agenda during recent visits by Algerian President Boutefilka and Jordanian King Abdullah, as well as Lavrov's December trip to Libya (refs C,D and E). Yakunin has seen real benefits, with Russian Railways winning a $800 million contract to build a new rail line in Saudi Arabia, a $300 million contract to modernize rail lines in Algeria, and interest from Jordan and Libya. ¶9. (C) In Southeast Asia, Russian diplomacy has been focused on trade: Putin's 2007 trip to Indonesia saw the signing of contracts for Russian companies to invest $4 billion in Indonesian energy and mining projects and an arms deal worth $1 billion (ref F). In 2008, Russia delivered the latest consignment of Sukhoy fighters to Malaysia as part of a $900 million contract. Russian goals were not simply economic, according to Russian and Asian diplomats, who said the GOR was also anxious to enhance political ties with Indonesia and Malaysia, two large and influential Muslim nations that helped Russian entry into the OIC. Russia's Gain: Enhanced Security? -------------- ¶10. (C) Improved political relations with Muslim states have contributed to Russian security. After improving ties with the Gulf States, the GOR seems to have convinced the Saudis and Kuwaitis to stop funding Chechen separatists, while better monitoring aid that helps Russian Muslims build mosques and educational centers (ref G). Moscow has also seen Middle Eastern states embrace Chechen President Kadyrov and promise support for reconstructing his war-torn republic (ref H). Moscow analysts disagree to what extent Russia's relations with the Muslim world have also helped shield it from international Islamic extremists. Both the Carnegie Moscow Center's Malashenko and Muslim expert Ruslan Kurbanov said that Islamic radicals have not forgotten Moscow's early and vocal support of American anti-terrorism measures, which, combined with Russia's repressive Caucasus policy, demonstrated to extremists Russia's "real" views on Islam. Are Russia's Muslims a Factor? -------------- ¶11. (C) How Russia's Muslim population factors into the GOR's Islamic diplomacy remains unclear, although it most likely plays only a nominal role. Some working-level MFA officials and diplomats from Muslim countries have said that maintaining equanimity with domestic Muslims was a goal, and pointed to GOR support for increased contacts between Russia's Muslim leadership and visiting Muslim officials as MOSCOW 00000751 003 OF 003 evidence. However, others dismissed this idea, including Jordan Desk Officer Andrey Vavilov, who said he doubted the Kremlin thought of domestic Muslims when making foreign policy, beyond immediate implications for Chechnya. Fadi Ziadeh of the Lebanese Embassy added that Russian Muslims had little sense of solidarity with Muslims overseas, as evidenced by the lack of demonstrations by Russian Muslims against the war in Iraq or Israeli military action against Hezbollah or Hamas, which one typically saw in Muslim countries. Domestic Implications -------------- ¶12. (C) Discerning the domestic impact of Russia's Islamic offensive was difficult, admitted Middle East expert Georgiy Mirskiy of the Institute of Higher Economics. For typical Russian Muslims, like their Slavic/Orthodox compatriots, Russia's foreign policy is not a priority. The GOR, however, can point to its healthy relations with Islamic states and observer status in the OIC. RIA Novesti commentator Belenkaya added that GOR Islamic diplomacy was meant to provide "insurance" against the growth of extremism within its own borders. Political analyst Makarenko stressed Russia's Muslims have little influence over Kremlin foreign policy, but the GOR was mindful of their reaction to policy toward the Islamic world. ¶13. (C) Muslim expert and political affairs editor of the magazine "Smisl" Ruslan Kurbanov told us he did not believe the GOR's Islamic offensive had been effective with Russia's practicing Muslims, who viewed Russia through the prism of its violent history in the Caucasus. Kurbanov estimated that only ten percent of Russia's Muslims could be considered religious, most of whom lived in the Caucasus and were at the greatest risk of extremism. Kurbanov observed a significant "misunderstanding" between devout Russian Muslims who saw Russia as an enemy of Islam and foreigners who considered Russia an historical ally with the Arab world since the USSR era. Russia's enhanced Islamic diplomacy might appeal to foreign Muslims, but failed to persuade Russia's religious Muslims. Kurbanov believed that GOR foreign policy had little impact on secular Muslims who did not identify strongly with Muslims overseas; only domestic policies helpful to Russian Muslims would appeal to this segment of society. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) On balance, Russia's Islamic offensive seems to have yielded positive results for the GOR as an aspiring global actor. Russia's deepened contacts with Muslim states will allow it to play an increasing, and at times, decisive, role in regional conflicts and on the world stage. BURNS