RUSSIAN FASCINATION WITH U.S. ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000682 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV RS SUBJECT: RUSSIAN FASCINATION WITH U.S. ELECTIONS Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Compared to Russia's recent presidential elections, Russian interest in the U.S. presidential elections is hard to miss here. Newspapers are filled with stories on the race and profiles of the leading candidates' views on U.S.-Russia relations. Polling data suggests that 63 percent of Russians know about the U.S. elections and the same percentage believe the elections "are important" for Russia. However, analysts advised against misinterpreting fascination with the U.S. electoral process as a desire to apply a similar system in Russia, or as an indicator of high expectations for improved U.S.-Russia relations. Despite comments from Putin and Medvedev that Russia is ready to work with any U.S. President, analysts tell us that the political elite is under no illusions of a breakthrough in the relationship, citing fundamental foreign policy differences and critical statements from all three candidates, particularly those from Senator McCain. That said, Russian press, analysts, and even some GOR officials have been outspoken in their speculation about possibilities for bilateral relations with Medvedev and Obama at the helm. End Summary. Russian Interests in U.S. Elections Unquestioned -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) In stark contrast with the unremittingly dull reporting on Dmitriy Medvedev's road to the presidency, most Russian newspapers provide lively and detailed coverage of the U.S. presidential race and the future of U.S.-Russian relations. The following headlines in leading newspapers and news sites give a flavor of the depth and range of interests in the U.S. elections: -- "Russian Society Not in Need of (U.S.-style) Debates" (Kommersant) -- "What Should Russia Expect from the Presidential Elections in the U.S.?" (www.Lenti.ru) -- "Who is Better for Russia: A Democrat or Republican?" (RIA Novosti) -- "Thus Far Nobody Knows the Candidates' Views Toward Russia" (Vesti.Ru) -- "The Hangover Caused by the Yankees" (Moskovskiy Komsomolets) ¶3. (U) Several newspapers and websites regularly release lengthy profiles on each of the U.S. candidates. Kommersant, for example, published the week of March 3 a series of analytical pieces on the likely foreign policy teams and directions (particularly vis-a-vis Russia) in an administration under "President" McCain, Clinton, or Obama. ¶4. (U) Polling data also supports the view that Russians are focused on the U.S. elections. According to recent data from the local Public Opinion Fund, 63 percent of Russians surveyed know or have heard about the election campaign in the U.S. and 67 percent believe that the U.S. elections "are important" for Russia. But Don't Confuse Our Interest with Envy... -------------- ¶5. (C) Russian analysts tell us that the significant level of interest in -- and even fascination with -- the U.S. electoral race among the Russian political elite and voters should not be interpreted as a desire to imitate the U.S. democratic system. Moscow Carnegie Center Deputy Director Dmitriy Trenin acknowledged that the juxtaposition of the Russian and U.S. elections this year clearly revealed the "embarrassing differences" between the political systems -- Western journalists in Moscow told us that Channel One was ordered to discontinue coverage of the U.S. primaries because it made Russia's presidential election look boring in comparison -- but insisted that Russians have yet to draw the conclusion that such robust democracy is badly needed in their own country. (Note: We have noticed a significant reduction in coverage of the U.S. elections on Channel One, but RTR and NTV continue to provide regular coverage.) ¶6. (C) New Eurasia Foundation President Andrey Kortunov argued that, with the help of state controlled media, most Russians believe that the uneventful March 2 presidential elections in Russia were proof of the stability and success of Putin's course. In contrast, political races in the U.S. are viewed as symptomatic of the "unprecedented" level of anxiety and "political and economic turmoil" gripping the country. Kortunov noted that some Russian newspapers and TV news programs characterize the U.S. elections as an entertaining sporting event, minimizing the degree of applicability to Russia's own political course. ...And Don't Mistake Our Interest for High Expectations -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Russian experts also asserted that, despite widespread interest in the U.S. elections and candidates, the GOR has been effective in managing public expectations regarding the impact of the elections on bilateral relations. During his annual marathon press conference on February 14, Putin said, "Whoever wins the (U.S.) elections, we, as they say in such circumstances, will respect the choice of the American people and will work with any President, if of course, he wants that....Whatever was said during the election campaign, the fundamental interests of Russia and the U.S. will inevitably push the leadership of both countries to the development of a positive dialogue, as a minimum, a partnership dialogue." Medvedev in a February 15 press conference, said that, "I, like any person, have my own views about the U.S. candidates, but something else is more important -- it is necessary that the U.S. and Russia cooperate regardless of the set of leaders (in office); this is inevitable." ¶8. (C) Russia in Global Affairs Editor Fedor Lukyanov characterized such comments from Putin and Medvedev as a signal to Russians and to the U.S. that the Kremlin is under no illusions that a change in the U.S. administration necessarily means an improvement in bilateral ties. Indeed, Lukyanov and others tell us that the prevailing view among the political elite is that bilateral relations will likely continue on their present course, or deteriorate further, regardless of the results of the U.S. elections. They identify two contributing factors: -- Fundamental Differences: Russian analysts argued that much of the tension in the bilateral relationship is a result of diverging approaches to foreign policy. Russians, even from the liberal camp, widely accept the GOR rhetoric that U.S. foreign policy -- from the eastward expansion of NATO, to U.S. MD plans in Central Europe and recognition of Kosovo's independence -- is directed against Russia. We often hear that a permanent fixture of U.S. foreign policy is the "containment" of Russia. -- Undesirable or Unknown U.S. Candidates: Although Russian analysts regularly tell us that bilateral relations have been the most positive when a Republican administration is in office, unease about Senator McCain's possible electoral victory is almost palpable here. Newspapers are filled with articles featuring McCain's sharpest criticisms of Putin's domestic and foreign policies, particularly his 2007 op-ed calling for Russia's expulsion from the G-8. However, Trenin argued that at least Russia knows what to expect with a McCain administration, and Lukyanov added that while further confrontation with the U.S. is generally unwanted in Russia, at least the rules of the game will be clear. Senator Clinton is also considered a known quantity here, mainly because her foreign policy team would likely include former Clinton Administration officials with whom Russia had "complicated dealings" during the 1990s. Analysts and local press are less apprehensive about an Obama presidential win, but point out that very little is known about his position on Russia and note his critical statement on the March 2 Russian elections, Higher Hopes for Obama-Medvedev Duo -------------- ¶9. (C) State Duma Foreign Relations Committee Chair Konstantin Kosachev was recently quoted in the press as saying, "Obama appears to be the candidate from which we can expect the most serious steps forward toward Russia, since he is not connected with the phobias of the Cold War, as is McCain...and Clinton." While noting the "structural weaknesses" in U.S.-Russia relations and the limitations of personal chemistry between leaders, analysts with whom we spoke argued that the prospects for deeper bilateral ties were greater with Medvedev and Obama at the helm. ¶10. (C) Russian experts cite the common features between Medvedev and Obama -- both are young, relatively new members of the political elite, and seem to harbor no deep resentment against the other's country -- as evidence of the potentially constructive relationship between the two. Highlighting the Russian press' characterization of Obama as the "new JFK," Kortunov noted that Obama's campaign has generated some expectation in Russia that he is a visionary and would be the most likely candidate to approach U.S.-Russia relations with a fresh start. Trenin added that although Russia remains a racist society, Russians deeply admire Obama's personal accomplishments and believe that the election of an African-American as president would send a powerful signal to all countries of the progress in America's "social development." Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) It is encouraging that Russians are caught up in the excitement of the U.S. primaries and recognize that the recently completed Russian presidential elections was embarrassing in comparison. Although Russian analysts continue to claim that Russians generally prefer the predictability and stability of their elections, the continuous coverage in Russian media of the U.S. primaries and the policy views of each candidate may be one of the most effective forms of democracy promotion that we have. BURNS