RUSSIAN FASCINATION WITH U.S. ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000682

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN FASCINATION WITH U.S. ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Compared to Russia's recent presidential
elections, Russian interest in the U.S. presidential
elections is hard to miss here. Newspapers are filled with
stories on the race and profiles of the leading candidates'
views on U.S.-Russia relations. Polling data suggests that
63 percent of Russians know about the U.S. elections and the
same percentage believe the elections "are important" for
Russia. However, analysts advised against misinterpreting
fascination with the U.S. electoral process as a desire to
apply a similar system in Russia, or as an indicator of high
expectations for improved U.S.-Russia relations. Despite
comments from Putin and Medvedev that Russia is ready to work
with any U.S. President, analysts tell us that the political
elite is under no illusions of a breakthrough in the
relationship, citing fundamental foreign policy differences
and critical statements from all three candidates,
particularly those from Senator McCain. That said, Russian
press, analysts, and even some GOR officials have been
outspoken in their speculation about possibilities for
bilateral relations with Medvedev and Obama at the helm. End
Summary.

Russian Interests in U.S. Elections Unquestioned
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) In stark contrast with the unremittingly dull
reporting on Dmitriy Medvedev's road to the presidency, most
Russian newspapers provide lively and detailed coverage of
the U.S. presidential race and the future of U.S.-Russian
relations. The following headlines in leading newspapers and
news sites give a flavor of the depth and range of interests
in the U.S. elections:

-- "Russian Society Not in Need of (U.S.-style) Debates"
(Kommersant)

-- "What Should Russia Expect from the Presidential Elections
in the U.S.?" (www.Lenti.ru)

-- "Who is Better for Russia: A Democrat or Republican?" (RIA
Novosti)

-- "Thus Far Nobody Knows the Candidates' Views Toward
Russia" (Vesti.Ru)

-- "The Hangover Caused by the Yankees" (Moskovskiy
Komsomolets)


3. (U) Several newspapers and websites regularly release
lengthy profiles on each of the U.S. candidates. Kommersant,
for example, published the week of March 3 a series of
analytical pieces on the likely foreign policy teams and
directions (particularly vis-a-vis Russia) in an
administration under "President" McCain, Clinton, or Obama.



4. (U) Polling data also supports the view that Russians are
focused on the U.S. elections. According to recent data from
the local Public Opinion Fund, 63 percent of Russians
surveyed know or have heard about the election campaign in
the U.S. and 67 percent believe that the U.S. elections "are
important" for Russia.

But Don't Confuse Our Interest with Envy...
--------------


5. (C) Russian analysts tell us that the significant level
of interest in -- and even fascination with -- the U.S.
electoral race among the Russian political elite and voters
should not be interpreted as a desire to imitate the U.S.
democratic system. Moscow Carnegie Center Deputy Director
Dmitriy Trenin acknowledged that the juxtaposition of the
Russian and U.S. elections this year clearly revealed the
"embarrassing differences" between the political systems --
Western journalists in Moscow told us that Channel One was
ordered to discontinue coverage of the U.S. primaries because
it made Russia's presidential election look boring in
comparison -- but insisted that Russians have yet to draw the
conclusion that such robust democracy is badly needed in
their own country. (Note: We have noticed a significant
reduction in coverage of the U.S. elections on Channel One,
but RTR and NTV continue to provide regular coverage.)


6. (C) New Eurasia Foundation President Andrey Kortunov
argued that, with the help of state controlled media, most
Russians believe that the uneventful March 2 presidential
elections in Russia were proof of the stability and success
of Putin's course. In contrast, political races in the U.S.
are viewed as symptomatic of the "unprecedented" level of
anxiety and "political and economic turmoil" gripping the
country. Kortunov noted that some Russian newspapers and TV
news programs characterize the U.S. elections as an
entertaining sporting event, minimizing the degree of
applicability to Russia's own political course.

...And Don't Mistake Our Interest for High Expectations
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Russian experts also asserted that, despite
widespread interest in the U.S. elections and candidates, the
GOR has been effective in managing public expectations
regarding the impact of the elections on bilateral relations.
During his annual marathon press conference on February 14,
Putin said, "Whoever wins the (U.S.) elections, we, as they
say in such circumstances, will respect the choice of the
American people and will work with any President, if of
course, he wants that....Whatever was said during the
election campaign, the fundamental interests of Russia and
the U.S. will inevitably push the leadership of both
countries to the development of a positive dialogue, as a
minimum, a partnership dialogue." Medvedev in a February 15
press conference, said that, "I, like any person, have my own
views about the U.S. candidates, but something else is more
important -- it is necessary that the U.S. and Russia
cooperate regardless of the set of leaders (in office); this
is inevitable."


8. (C) Russia in Global Affairs Editor Fedor Lukyanov
characterized such comments from Putin and Medvedev as a
signal to Russians and to the U.S. that the Kremlin is under
no illusions that a change in the U.S. administration
necessarily means an improvement in bilateral ties. Indeed,
Lukyanov and others tell us that the prevailing view among
the political elite is that bilateral relations will likely
continue on their present course, or deteriorate further,
regardless of the results of the U.S. elections. They
identify two contributing factors:

-- Fundamental Differences: Russian analysts argued that much
of the tension in the bilateral relationship is a result of
diverging approaches to foreign policy. Russians, even from
the liberal camp, widely accept the GOR rhetoric that U.S.
foreign policy -- from the eastward expansion of NATO, to
U.S. MD plans in Central Europe and recognition of Kosovo's
independence -- is directed against Russia. We often hear
that a permanent fixture of U.S. foreign policy is the
"containment" of Russia.

-- Undesirable or Unknown U.S. Candidates: Although Russian
analysts regularly tell us that bilateral relations have been
the most positive when a Republican administration is in
office, unease about Senator McCain's possible electoral
victory is almost palpable here. Newspapers are filled with
articles featuring McCain's sharpest criticisms of Putin's
domestic and foreign policies, particularly his 2007 op-ed
calling for Russia's expulsion from the G-8. However, Trenin
argued that at least Russia knows what to expect with a
McCain administration, and Lukyanov added that while further
confrontation with the U.S. is generally unwanted in Russia,
at least the rules of the game will be clear. Senator
Clinton is also considered a known quantity here, mainly
because her foreign policy team would likely include former
Clinton Administration officials with whom Russia had
"complicated dealings" during the 1990s. Analysts and local
press are less apprehensive about an Obama presidential win,
but point out that very little is known about his position on
Russia and note his critical statement on the March 2 Russian
elections,

Higher Hopes for Obama-Medvedev Duo
--------------


9. (C) State Duma Foreign Relations Committee Chair
Konstantin Kosachev was recently quoted in the press as
saying, "Obama appears to be the candidate from which we can
expect the most serious steps forward toward Russia, since he
is not connected with the phobias of the Cold War, as is
McCain...and Clinton." While noting the "structural
weaknesses" in U.S.-Russia relations and the limitations of
personal chemistry between leaders, analysts with whom we
spoke argued that the prospects for deeper bilateral ties
were greater with Medvedev and Obama at the helm.


10. (C) Russian experts cite the common features between
Medvedev and Obama -- both are young, relatively new members
of the political elite, and seem to harbor no deep resentment
against the other's country -- as evidence of the potentially
constructive relationship between the two. Highlighting the
Russian press' characterization of Obama as the "new JFK,"
Kortunov noted that Obama's campaign has generated some
expectation in Russia that he is a visionary and would be the
most likely candidate to approach U.S.-Russia relations with
a fresh start. Trenin added that although Russia remains a
racist society, Russians deeply admire Obama's personal
accomplishments and believe that the election of an
African-American as president would send a powerful signal to
all countries of the progress in America's "social
development."

Comment
--------------


11. (C) It is encouraging that Russians are caught up in the
excitement of the U.S. primaries and recognize that the
recently completed Russian presidential elections was
embarrassing in comparison. Although Russian analysts
continue to claim that Russians generally prefer the
predictability and stability of their elections, the
continuous coverage in Russian media of the U.S. primaries
and the policy views of each candidate may be one of the most
effective forms of democracy promotion that we have.
BURNS