CIS INFORMAL SUMMIT: MEDVEDEV AND KOSOVO

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000561

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR RS
SUBJECT: CIS INFORMAL SUMMIT: MEDVEDEV AND KOSOVO

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary. The uncertainty of Kosovo and the lure of
meeting heir apparent Dmitriy Medvedev brought all 12 CIS
leaders to Moscow for the February 21-22 CIS Informal Summit.
While the MFA pitched a new seriousness in its approach to
the CIS, Putin used the summit to introduce Medvedev and
level harsh criticism against the West's decision to
recognize Kosovo's independence. Medvedev assured the CIS
leaders that his foreign policy will follow the path laid by
Putin. Among the many bilaterals -- Putin with Voronin,
Saakashvili, Aliyev, Bakiyev and Rakhmon, -- the most notable
was Putin-Saakashvili meeting, which continued a trend to
improved Russia-Georgia relations with the promise of direct
flights between the two capitals resuming by early April.
End summary.

Twelve Smiling Men
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2. (C) Russian officials were pleased with the full house at
the February 21-22 CIS Informal Summit, which First DFM
Denisov used to caution against hurriedly burying the CIS.
In a February 21 interview, Denisov maintained that the
strength of the organization lay in its flexible and less
structured form, which provided a forum to discuss and solve
problems encountered by the former Soviet republics. For
this reason, he added, all twelve states have continued to
participate in the organization, even those which have
frequently indicated they would depart, such as Georgia and
Ukraine. MFA Third CIS Department Director Maksim Peshkov
told us February 26 that the GOR was pleased with the results
of the summit. The presence of all twelve leaders had
occurred only rarely in recent years. (Press reports
highlighted Yushchenko's two Moscow visits in as many weeks;
Kocharian's attendance despite an unsettled domestic
situation in the wake of presidential elections; and
Bakiyev's effort to attend despite an immediate follow-on
travel to Seoul for Lee Myung Bak's inauguration.) MFA
Second CIS Director Viktor Sorokin echoed Peshkov, telling us
February 27 that the CIS had finally come into its own as an
"as-needed" organization with no political agenda, but a
focus on problems shared by participating countries. The
membership was voluntary with no political pressure to stay
in or out, he added. The two-day photo op produced little
substance but many smiling faces, creating the illusion that
the CIS, after years of public disharmony, was back.

Kosovo: Double-edged Sword
--------------


3. (U) Commentators attributed the full house to tension
over the possible consequences (Russia's reactions) to
Kosovo's independence, as well as the formal unveiling of
First DPM Medvedev. With none of the CIS members having
recognized Kosovo, Putin was able to use the gathering to
lash out against the West's decision on Kosovo, warning of a
"whole chain of unpredictable consequences." He termed
Kosovo's independence a double-edged sword whose second edge
will strike the faces of Kosovo's supporters.
Plus, the Next Putin

Plus, the Next Putin
--------------


4. (U) While introducing his anointed successor, Putin
declared that the CIS was Russia's clear and unchangeable
priority, justified not only by the common past of its
members, but by a future that will continue to bind them
together. He advised the other CIS leaders to devise country
development strategies to 2020 as he had done for Russia. A
seemingly relaxed Medvedev parroted Putin's line,
reiterating, "In our countries and among our peoples, there
is no alternative to longer-term cooperation." Putin had
promised that under Medvedev there would be no
"revolutionary" change in Russia's foreign policy, and gave
Medvedev credit for having authored many of the CIS policies
currently being implemented. Medvedev proposed that a CIS
emergency fund as well as a plan for a union-wide
transportation network be on the agenda at this year's
Bishkek summit.


Bilaterals
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5. (C) With Central Asian and Caucasus countries evidently
in mind, Putin emphasized Russia's resolve to tackle
xenophobia. The issue was touched on in bilaterals with
Bakiyev, Aliyev and Rakhmon. With seven Kyrgyz citizens
murdered in Russia in the previous five weeks, GOR officials
noted that Bakiyev was particularly interested in receiving
GOR assurances on a crackdown against xenophobia. According
to Sorokin, the Putin-Voronin meeting affirmed the GOR's
determination to keep channels of communication open
regardless of the "destructive influence" of Kosovo. The
Putin-Saakashvili bilateral also revolved around the
implications of Kosovo, with Saakashivili mainly concerned
about possible GOR action on frozen conflicts in the
Caucasus. Putin stressed that all would depend on the GOG.
The two presidents agreed to resume direct flights and postal
service between Russia and Georgia, ease visa restrictions,
and reconsider trade sanctions (more details septel). Putin
and Yushchenko, who had met February 12-13 during the
Intergovernmental Commission session (septel),did not have a
separate bilateral during the Summit.

Comment
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6. (C) Despite the rhetoric, we expect no dramatic change in
the GOR's approach to the CIS. Vast economic disparities and
different geopolitical orientations mean that the CIS
structure provides little unifying force. Instead, it will
serve the GOR's need to periodically exert its influence in
the former Soviet space while Russia's increasing economic
power will likely make the union more attractive to its other
members.
BURNS