KOSOVO: RUSSIA REACTS PREDICTABLY, STOPS SHORT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000445 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV RS KV SUBJECT: KOSOVO: RUSSIA REACTS PREDICTABLY, STOPS SHORT OF RECOGNITION OF FROZEN CONFLICTS Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns: 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Russia responded quickly and negatively to Kosovo's declaration of independence, with the Kremlin and MFA labeling it illegal, illegitimate, and destabilizing. While the joint Duma/Federation Council statement is not expected until later today, both chairs of the international relations committees preemptively argued that the U.S. was intent on flouting international norms and had created a dangerous precedent. Russian officials, while maintaining some level of ambiguity, have sent signals that they will increase diplomatic and economic support for the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but that Russia will not "ape" Western actions by recognizing the independence of the breakaway territories. However, a press conference by the "presidents" and the joint parliamentary statement can be expected to raise tensions. The Ambassador alerted Deputy Foreign Minister Titov on the Secretary's intent to call FM Lavrov and U.S. plans for SIPDIS recognition. Our European colleagues are waiting to engage the Russians after GAERC. Kosovo's UDI also triggered airing of a documentary/screed on U.S. efforts to destabilize and overthrow governments through the promotion of democracy. End Summary Official Reaction: Quick, Predictable -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Russia responded quickly and along predictable lines to Kosovo's February 17 declaration of independence: -- Minutes after the UDI, the MFA issued a statement, in which it maintained that Kosovo's declaration was a violation of Serbian sovereignty, called upon the UN and NATO to annul the decision and to take strong administrative measures in response, demanded an immediate session of the UN Security Council to take "decisive action" to return to a political settlement along the lines of UNSCR 1244, and concluded that Kosovo's actions had increased the potential for conflict in the Balkans and threatened to diminish the authority of the UN. The statement reiterated Russia's complete support for the Serbian reaction to the announcement and demand for respect of its territorial integrity. -- Kremlin deputy spokesman Dmitriy Peskov quickly followed suit. Appearing on national television, he called the UDI an "illegitimate act," which was "contrary to the norms of international law." Peskov reiterated that Russia completely understood the response of Serbia, pointing to Belgrade's non-recognition of the EU mission to Kosovo. Peskov expressed respect for Belgrade's restraint and the constructive nature of its response; in particular, its decision not to implement an economic blockade or sanctions. When asked on next Russian steps, Peskov was careful to cede the initiative to Serbia, noting that Russia would support its Balkan partner. -- Russian television carried Russian NATO Ambassador Dmitriy Rogozin's characterization of the UDI as "the beginning of the destruction of the basic principles of international law by NATO and the EU," and his warning that a Pandora's box had been opened, which could lead to a domino effect and "a transition towards absolute chaos." Rogozin accused the international community of "blatantly humiliating the Serbian nation." -- While the Duma and Federation Council will issue a joint statement at the end of the day, February 18, (with the statement pre-drafted by the MFA),the chairs of the international relations committees laid down preemptive markers. Duma Chair Konstantin Kosachev stressed that the aim of the U.S. and EU was to reaffirm a de facto practice of operating outside international law and in defiance of the international community. Federation Council Chair Mikhail Margelov argued that a dangerous precedent was being established that could redraw the political map of the Middle East, provoking a scenario "which Europe and the America could not even think about in their MOSCOW 00000445 002 OF 003 worst nightmare." -- A discordant note in the storm of Russian protest was the Russian Mufti's endorsement of Kosovo's independence. Co-chair of the Council of Muftis Nafigulla Ashirov was reported in the press as underscoring that Kosovo had the right to independence given the conflict's deep roots and number of victims claimed in the crisis. The Mufti took issue with efforts to "scare the whole world with the idea that now there will be Islamic extremism in Kosovo." Predictably, the Russian Orthodox Church condemned the UDI and warned that Kosovar Albanians could "not build a peaceful and successful life at somebody else's expense." -- Russia's flagship NGO, Memorial, argued that Kosovo's recognition created a dangerous precedent that would have "irreversible consequences," while Chair of the Moscow Helsinki Group Lyudmila Alekseeva commented that by "rescuing Albanians," U.S. actions would cause Serbs to suffer. Stirring Pot, Stopping Short of Recognition of Frozen Conflicts -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) While prominent politicians immediately drew comparisons between Kosovo and other separatist movements, Russian senior officials have walked a careful line in their statements over the implications of Kosovo's independence for the frozen conflicts, particularly with respect to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. -- In a Friday, February 15 statement following FM Lavrov's meeting with the "presidents" of the two breakaway territories, the MFA noted that Russia would be "forced to consider" Kosovo's application to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, the statement then went on to underscore Russia's "unaltered efforts" to contribute to the peaceful resolution of both conflicts "in the framework of existing formats," reiterating a second time the GOR support for settlements "within the framework of international recognized formats." -- In his annual press conference, also on Friday, Putin said that Russia would not "ape" Western actions. If someone took a "stupid and illegal decision," he noted, that was not reason for Russia to do the same. Then, adding his customary note of ambiguity, Putin said that Russia would react to Western behavior by securing its national interests. "If they consider themselves right in protecting their interests in such a fashion, why shouldn't we? But, I repeat, we will not imitate them" or, he added, be forced to mirror-image them. "We are prepared for this (i.e. UDI),and we know what we will do." In a separate question, Putin went through the standard Russian talking points, taking issue with Kosovo's "unique" status. -- Appearing on the national news in the wake of the UDI announcement, former PM Primakov -- Russia's foremost Kosovo warrior and a bellwether, perhaps co-architect, of Kremlin policy -- argued that the U.S. and its allies sought to justify the 1999 NATO bombing campaign through their recognition of Kosovo. Primakov also warned of a "new model" of flaunting the UN, which was a continuation of the U.S. policy towards Iraq. However, on the frozen conflicts, Primakov struck a cautionary tone, echoing Putin's position that there was no need to mirror image the Western actions, although Russia should take steps to increase economic ties and otherwise support the leaders of the frozen conflicts. ¶4. (SBU) Based on their public comments, we expect that during their press conference in Moscow today, "presidents" Kokoity and Bagapsh will call upon the UN, CIS and Russian Duma to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and MOSCOW 00000445 003 OF 003 South Ossetia -- with one Duma member telling us that a "formal request" from Abkhazia was received far in advance of the UDI. While Duma members have not tipped their hand with respect to the draft joint declaration, both the Duma and the Federation Council have served as stalking horses in the past on the frozen conflicts. However, given the line established by Putin and reinforced by Primakov, it is likely that official Russian reaction will fall short of formal recognition and will be limited to increased diplomatic and economic support. The incremental improvements in Russian- Georgian relations, with the press reporting the First Deputy Transport Minister in town to discuss the lifting of the air embargo, together with Georgia's statement that it will not recognize Kosovo, may help to reinforce relative Russian restraint. Engaging the GOR -------------- ¶5. (C) In the morning of February 18, the Ambassador spoke with Deputy Foreign Minister Titov and explained that the Secretary would attempt to contact FM Lavrov later in the day to preview the U.S. intent to recognize Kosovo's independence. ¶6. (C) Other European missions tell us that they have no plans to engage the Russians directly, at least not in Moscow. The Germans are under instructions to hold off until after the GAERC concludes and are focused on security issues, given their proximity to the Serbian Embassy where 50 demonstrators burned an Albanian flag last night; the French are focusing their engagement in New York; and the British (whose relations with the GOR are still under the cloud of the Litvinenko and British Council blows) have no plans to reach out at a senior level. The EU and Slovenian missions told us they will meet with the MFA tomorrow, following receipt of their GAERC mandate. Flogging the "Empire of Good" -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Also in the wake of Kosovo's announcement, Russian television aired a one-hour documentary on the "Empire of Good," detailing the U.S. commitment to use the promotion of democracy to undermine and overthrow governments, while extending its hegemonic reach. The program, which was closely modeled on and borrowed from a previous documentary, "Velvet Revolution," featured mostly Western sources for its attack on neo-conservatism, American militarism, and U.S. indifference to international norms. BURNS