AT INAUGURAL CONGRESS, SOLIDARITY SELECTS LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003637 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM RS SUBJECT: AT INAUGURAL CONGRESS, SOLIDARITY SELECTS LEADERS AND WAY FORWARD REF: A. MOSCOW 3636 ¶B. MOSCOW 3242 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On December 12-13, the Solidarity opposition movement held its inaugural national congress, bringing together several political opposition and human rights organizations. The congress elected leaders, including Garry Kasparov and Boris Nemtsov, and also elaborated its program to develop a European-style democracy in Russia. Nonetheless, several key opposition figures have refused to join Solidarity, many because of personal dislike of Kasparov. Pro-Kremlin forces attempted to disrupt the congress with live sheep (which subsequently died) and sabotage tactics, but the event continued as planned. Such provocations against a movement with negligible influence demonstrates yet again how limited the political space is for the opposition in Russia. End Summary. Congress Takes Place Despite Provocateurs, Dead Sheep -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The new Solidarity opposition movement officially held its inaugural congress December 12-13 at the Olimpeyts complex in the northern Moscow suburb of Khimki. (Note: This is the same location at which, on November 15, the Union of Right Forces (SPS) held its dissolution congress. End Note.) Fearing interference from the Kremlin or pro-Kremlin groups, Solidarity organizers tightly guarded logistical details as long as possible. Such secrecy stemmed from the forced postponement of Solidarity's Moscow regional conference in November, after three reserved venues canceled at the last minute. At the St. Petersburg regional conference on December 7, pro-Kremlin protesters wore anti-Kasparov shirts and threw green dye on Yabloko's Maksim Reznik. The congress site in Khimki was only revealed to us on December 11, and only then through a series of intermediaries until the event's main logistical organizer (Aleksandr Kubikov) confirmed the details. Solidarity organizer Ilya Yashin told us December 9 that top Solidarity leaders, including Nemtsov and Kasparov, would not learn the event location until the day of the congress. ¶3. (SBU) On December 12, according to Yashin, several Solidarity members' mobile phones were blocked or received floods of spam calls and text messages. At the congress site in Khimki, delegates arriving by bus were greeted by several sheep, brought by pro-Kremlin protesters. Grimly, many of the sheep lay dead in the parking lot by the time the delegates' buses arrived. Some delegates never even made it to the congress: at the bus departure point in Moscow, some delegates were invited to get on a bus that shanghaied them to Krasnogorsk, on the other side of Moscow from the congress site. As a result, the congress began one hour later than planned. On December 13, Molodaya Rossiya (Young Russia) protesters distributed flyers outside the conference center while wearing monkey masks. Leadership By Coalition -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Rather than a single leader, Solidarity will be governed by a coalition structure comprising various political and human rights organizations. The congress elected 39 members to a Federal Political Council, which will meet at least every two months and will serve as the movement's main governing body. Most Political Council members came from opposition organizations, but two Moscow journalists, Aleksandr Goltz and Roman Dobrokhotov, also were elected. Eleven of the 39 Political Council members came from outside Moscow or St. Petersburg. In secret voting for the Political Council, Nemtsov came in first place with 204 votes, while Kasparov was fifth with 186 votes. ¶5. (SBU) At its first meeting on December 13, the Political Council elected 13 members of its Presidium. Presidium members include Kasparov and three members of his United Civil Front (OGF); former SPS leader Boris Nemtsov; former Deputy Energy Minister Vladimir Milov; two activists from former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov's Russian People's Democratic Union (RNDS); two Yabloko members; and the former head of Moscow Region Union of Right Forces (SPS). Of the 13 Presidium members, ten are from Moscow and two from St. Petersburg. ¶6. (SBU) Notably, the Political Council did not elect human rights activist Lev Ponamarev to the Presidium, which Ilya Yashin attributed to Ponamarev's discussion on permissible forms of cooperation with the authorities. Oborona's Sergey Davidis won the Presidium seat that Ponamarev was expected to win. In February, Solidarity will hold elections for the heads of executive committees. Membership Goals Vague, Focused on Moscow and St. Petersburg -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Solidarity's target demographic differs depending on with whom one talks. On December 9, Yashin told us that the movement would focus on attracting students and pensioners since he believed them to be the most active and having the most time to dedicate to politics. Kasparov told the Ambassador November 3 that Solidarity must focus on the 14 percent of the population that he considered the Russian middle class, who he believed would become politically active as the economic crisis deepens in Russia. On December 13, Boris Nemtsov emphasized the importance of "active cooperation" with trade unions. Various leaders, including Kasparov, have told us that Solidarity excluded the banned National Bolshevik party because its violent protesters scare prospective members away. Nonetheless, Kasparov organized major protests in Moscow for December 14 in coordination with the National Bolsheviks (Ref A). ¶8. (C) Yashin told us that he is optimistic that Solidarity will gain traction outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, but he could not explain how the movement would attract prospective members aside from internet outreach. At the congress were present delegates from Saratov, Voronezh, Murmansk, Sakhalin, Irkutsk, Kostroma, Chelyabinsk, Tomsk, and Samara. Goals of the Movement: European-Style Democracy -------------- -- ¶9. (C) Echoing his November 3 remarks to the Ambassador (Ref B),Kasparov called for the "dismantling" rather than the destruction of the ruling regime in Russia. Delegates did not approve Milov's "300 Steps" as the movement's program, and the decision on the movement's full program will be revisited in mid-March. "300 Steps" outlines goals for guiding Russia toward a European-style democracy and away from corruption, autocracy, and political repression. Solidarity's goal, according to conversations with Kasparov, Yashin, and Milov, is to wait until the economic crisis leads to a desire in Russia for broader political change. Fractured Solidarity: Kasparov Keeps Many Away -------------- - ¶10. (C) Despite the array of political and human rights organizations participating in Solidarity, many opposition leaders remained conspicuously absent. Mikhail Kasyanov has not joined, although seven activists from his RNDS now sit on Solidarity's Political Council. RNDS member Stanislav Kulikov told us December 12 that Kasyanov considered it safer not to join personally, but other contacts have told us his abstention stems from his disdain for Kasparov. ¶11. (C) Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev will not participate, and neither will Vladimir Ryzhkov of the outlawed Republican Party. Solidarity's Vladimir Milov told us in October that neither would join because both are funded by billionaire Aleksandr Lebedev, who refused to join or fund Solidarity after the movement refused to oust Kasparov. (Note: Milov revealed that Lebedev's other stipulation was the exclusion of Kasyanov, which Milov said would have been acceptable. End Note.) Ryzhkov told us November 20 that Solidarity is only a Kasparov and Nemtsov creation doomed to fail because "Kasparov begins new projects all the time, but he will not change anything." SPS and Yabloko: Help From Friends -------------- ¶12. (C) On December 8, President Medvedev nominated former SPS head Nikita Belykh to become the new governor of Kirov Oblast. This followed a public letter Belykh wrote criticizing Kasparov for trying to "usurp" Solidarity's leadership. Vladimir Ryzhkov confirmed November 20 that "Belykh and Kasparov do not like each other." Former SPS Political Council member Maria Gaidar told us November 25 that Belykh's complicity in dismantling SPS meant that he never intended to join Solidarity and instead sought his "reward" in a governorship. Gaidar also confirmed that she will not join Solidarity, although she told us that she would "help her friends (in the movement) in the ways that will be most effective." ¶13. (C) Yabloko's national leadership vocally opposed participation in Solidarity, with party chair Sergey Mitrokhin issuing a public statement urging Yabloko members to withdraw from the movement. His plea went ignored, and five Yabloko members now sit on Solidarity's Political Council, with two on the Presidium. Yabloko Youth leader and Presidium member Yashin told us "there are two Yabloko parties today": one focused solely on Moscow and "not able to change over time," the other willing to engage with "political competitors like Solidarity." Former Yabloko chair Grigoriy Yavlinskiy told us December 9 that Solidarity is "stupidity" and "it is not possible to make Solidarity weaker." Solidarity, he added, is only "repeating images from the 1990s, which Russians do not want to see." Explaining that Yabloko members in Solidarity now regret joining "Kasparov's organization," Yavlinskiy told us that on December 7 two Yabloko members called Mitrokhin to ask that the party publicly forbid its members from joining Solidarity. Yavlinskiy interpreted this as members looking for an honorable way to bow out of Solidarity, and Mitrokhin did not issue the requested edict. "If we throw out everyone who does something stupid," Yavlinskiy bemoaned, "there will only be two people in Yabloko." Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) Continued pro-Kremlin provocations against a movement with influence as negligible as Solidarity's demonstrates yet again how limited the political space is for the opposition in Russia. Without access to national broadcast media and with essentially no name recognition outside Moscow and St. Petersburg, Solidarity will continue to operate on the fringes of Russian political opposition. Kasparov's polarizing role as one of the movement's leaders also will hamper Solidarity, with competing opposition leaders continuing to snipe from the sidelines. Such in-fighting makes Solidarity a minimal threat to the ruling regime, but future provocations against the movement and its leadership should be expected nonetheless. BEYRLE