REACTION TO ODIHR/OSCE-PA DECISION ON ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000348 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL RS SUBJECT: REACTION TO ODIHR/OSCE-PA DECISION ON ELECTION OBSERVERS REF: A. MOSCOW 322 ¶B. MOSCOW 303 ¶C. 07 MOSCOW 5682 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) As expected, the reaction to the decisions by ODIHR and the Parliamentary Assembly of OSCE not to observe the March 2 presidential elections has been loud and swift. Political analysts and members of the Duma from both United Russia and the Communist Party decried the decision not to send observer missions, despite what they viewed as the CEC's willingness to compromise on the arrival date of the delegation, or spun ODIHR's decision as affirmation that Russia did not need monitoring. While several opposition and NGO leaders welcomed ODIHR's principled stand, the GOR's charge of OSCE double standards resonated among some. While the dispute will fade from public view quickly, the GOR will intensify its efforts at OSCE "reform." End summary. -------------- ANALYSTS COMMENT ON ODIHR/OSCE-PA DECISIONS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The decisions February 7 by ODIHR and the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE (OSCE-PA) not to send observers to the March 2 presidential elections opened the flood gates to predictable cries of outrage by many Russian political analysts. The pro-Kremlin Gleb Pavlovskiy of the Effective Politics Foundation said the decision aims to "weaken the new president from the very beginning of his term of office." Pavlovskiy accused the staff of OSCE and "certain forces related to the State Department" of sending signals that resulted in the decisions not to observe the upcoming elections. Aleksey Makarkin of the Center for Political Technologies said that if Russia had agreed to the terms requested by ODIHR then it would be "an admission of deficient democracy." He added that Russia had come out "with minimal damage to its image," and concluded that "the fact that it was ODIHR which refused to come and that Russia was ready to meet it halfway, is a plus to Russian leadership." -------------- -------------- DUMA LEADERS AND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HAVE THEIR SAY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Comments by Konstantin Kosachev, Chairman of the Duma International Affairs Committee and member of the United Russia faction, were measured. He argued that the main function of OSCE monitors is to observe parliamentary 
elections or presidential elections if the campaign is "complicated and the results are unpredictable." He noted that in Russia, "elections were run in accordance with electoral legislation." Ivan Melnikov, Duma Deputy Speaker and Deputy Chairman of the Communist Party said the OSCE's refusal to send monitors was "an effort to pressure Russia, just as Russia is being pressured on international problems such as Kosovo." "The elections, no matter how they proceed, will not be detrimental to Russia's image," Melnikov said. In the December Duma elections, the Communist Party fielded observers throughout the country and condemned the conduct of the elections, alleging thousands of violations. Following the election, Melnikov and Communist Party Leader and now presidential candidate Gennadiy Zyuganov discussed their concerns with the head of OSCE-PA (Ref C). ¶4. (U) Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and presidential candidate, said the decisions not to observe the elections will have no effect on the results. "The elections will take place and the president will be announced," he said. Speaking about international observers in general, Zhirinovskiy said that as many observers who want to come should, but that this standard should apply to all countries, "not just Russia." Andrey Bogdanov, the Democratic Party's candidate for president, said it is ODIHR's and OSCE-PA's "right to send or not send observers." He opted to place their decision not to observe in the best possible light, arguing that their decision meant "our ways are democratic and there is democracy in our country." -------------- POLITICAL OPPOSITION, GOLOS, OTHERS REACT -------------- ¶5. (U) Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who was denied MOSCOW 00000348 002 OF 002 registration to run for president, welcomed ODIHR's refusal to send observers as an expression of its principles. Liliya Shibanova, the head of the election monitoring NGO GOLOS, blamed the CEC for making the international community question the legitimacy of the presidential elections. Referring to ODIHR's refusal to observe the December Duma elections, Shibanova said: "Refusing to attend Russian elections for the second time is a very serious move for the international community." Viktor Sheynis, one of the authors of Russia's law on elections said the damage caused by ODIHR's and OSCE-PA's refusal to participate is "moral" and will be "implanted in world public opinion." Dmitriy Orlov of the Agency for Political Economic Communications said that having a united front of organizations question the legitimacy of the presidential elections is "absolutely not wanted." He called OSCE an "influential organization" and said "its non-participation is bad news for the Russian political system." That being said, he accused ODIHR of taking a non-constructive position from the beginning and said Russia should not be treated as a politically underdeveloped country. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) With the election outcome a foregone conclusion, and interest in its conduct among Russians slight, this disagreement with ODIHR, and its failure to observe elections here for the second time in a row will fade from public view quickly. However, we can expect ODIHR's decision to reinvigorate GOR calls for OSCE reform, particularly with respect to election monitoring standards, with GOR statements focused on the "overwhelming majority" of OSCE member-states that allegedly had fewer monitors and a similarly truncated period as offered by Russia. BURNS