NEW KREMLIN-BACKED RIGHT CAUSE PARTY EMERGES FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003355

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM RS
SUBJECT: NEW KREMLIN-BACKED RIGHT CAUSE PARTY EMERGES FROM
SPS ASHES

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice Wells for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: On November 16, a new Kremlin-supported
"liberal" opposition party - Right Cause - emerged from the
ashes of 1990s-era liberal standard-bearer Union of Right
Forces (SPS),which along with two other vanity political
parties (Democratic Party and Civil Force) voted to dissolve
on November 15. Despite assurances from Right Cause leaders
that the party would not be a Kremlin puppet, strong Kremlin
influence already permeates the party structure. Right Cause
is gunning for seats in the March 2009 regional elections and
then in the next State Duma elections, but it received an
immediate boost when the Central Election Commission erased
previous party debts. Leading SPS members cried foul, with
the Moscow Regional branch voting against the party's
suicide, but they were a distinct minority among members who
accepted compromise over confrontation with the Kremlin. The
new party's congress debuted on prime-time television. End
Summary.

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SPS Dissolves Despite Opposition Pleas And Nemtsov's Return
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2. (SBU) As expected, the Union of Right Forces (SPS),the
Democratic Party of Russia (DPR),and Civil Force voted in
separate November 15 congresses to dissolve themselves. At
the SPS congress, regional delegates and party leaders
debated throughout the day-long congress, with Acting SPS
chairman Leonid Gozman emphasizing the party's massive debts
and lack of media access as key reasons to vote for
dissolution.


3. (C) SPS Political Council member Maria Gaidar led the
minority opposition to dissolution, lamenting "the
destruction of the last independent party in Russia" and
demanding an investigation into allegedly falsified regional
congresses. The congress voted almost unanimously against
her motions. Moscow SPS leader Vladlen Maksimov, who opposed
dissolution, told us at the congress that the day's events
were so orderly and open to the public because "the
conclusion was already decided inside the Kremlin." (Note:
This is likely why Gozman, as he adjourned the congress for a
mid-afternoon break, could joke to delegates that "it is okay
for you to speak with Maria Gaidar, she is not dangerous."
Nonetheless, she sat alone in a crowded lobby for the entire
40-minute break. End note.) In the final vote, delegates
voted 97-9 in favor of dissolving the party. Dissenting
votes included delegates from Moscow, St. Petersburg,
Kostroma, Amur, and Voronezh regions.


4. (C) The congress's only surprise came from former SPS
leader Boris Nemtsov, who re-activated the party membership
he suspended in February, and then offered to take financial
responsibility for SPS if delegates would vote against
dissolution. (Note: Nemtsov's improbable eleventh-hour
heroics played more like a political stunt, for which he was
rewarded with a barrage of media attention. End note.)
Nemtsov told us November 17 that he objected to opposition
operating from within the Kremlin framework, and blasted
Gozman as "amoral" and a "dwarf who wants to be a
Schwarzenegger."

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Right Cause Unveils Leaders and Pro-Business Platform
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5. (SBU) On November 16, members of SPS, DPR, and Civil Force
held a joint congress to unite into a new political party
called Right Cause (Pravoe Delo). Right Cause adopted a
party program, selected a symbol (tri-color star),and
elected three co-chairmen. As expected, the chairmen were
Acting SPS Chairman Leonid Gozman, Delovaya Rossiya leader
Boris Titov, and political scientist Georgiy Bovt. At a
November 17 press conference, the chairmen identified a
short-term goal of winning seats in the March 2009 regional
elections and long-term goal of winning State Duma seats.
The debut of Right Cause was featured at length on prime-time
national television, which served as the clearest sign of
Kremlin approval.


6. (SBU) Describing Right Cause's ideology, Gozman explained
that the party formed in response to the demand of small- and
medium-sized businesses, making the party's formation
"timely" given the deepening economic crisis in Russia.
According to Gozman, "strong, enthusiastic people of action"
are the most discriminated Russian demographic because they
include entrepreneurs who are subject to arbitrary raids and

corrupt functionaries. Perhaps realizing the limits of that
electoral demographic, Gozman later predicted that the middle
class, students, pensioners, intelligentsia, and "independent
people" also will support Right Cause.


7. (SBU) In addition to the three chairmen, Right Cause will
include a Supreme Council, which will function as a
monitoring and advisory body to develop strategy and
formulate party tactics. Three people so far have agreed to
serve on Right Cause's Supreme Council: RosNanotech head (and
former SPS leader) Anatoliy Chubais, writer Marietta
Chudakova, and Amedia CEO Aleksey Volin. Titov noted that a
fourth chairman may be added to the party if additional
organizations join the party.

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Party Leaders Reject "Puppet" Label Despite Kremlin Ties
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8. (C) When questioned by reporters about their opposition
credentials, the Right Cause chairmen failed to name a single
ally from among the existing political opposition. Trying
nonetheless to link his new party with other opposition
factions, Gozman insisted that "we share the same ideals and
seek similar goals" as the new Solidarity movement, but "we
use different methods." Opposition leaders Garry Kasparov,
Boris Nemtsov, Mikhail Kasyanov, and Vladimir Milov, however,
have all called Right Cause just a "Kremlin puppet." Indeed,
even some Right Cause delegates acknowledged the Kremlin's
role, with former Kemerovo SPS head and now Right Cause
member Dmitriy Shagiakhmatov confirming to us November 16
that the new party's structure gives the Kremlin a two-thirds
vote and the vestigial SPS faction one-third.


9. (C) Gozman objected unconvincingly to Vesti TV November 16
that, although Right Cause was established "with the help of
the Kremlin," the party would not be pro-Kremlin. In fact,
the Kremlin's sway over Right Cause is much stronger than
Gozman lets on. Andrei Dunaev, an acolyte of Kremlin Deputy
Chief of Staff Vladislav Surkov, will be Right Cause's chief
of staff. Sergey Tsybukhov, who headed the St. Petersburg
"Za Putina" ("For Putin") movement, will lead that city's
Right Cause branch. The party's Moscow branch will be led by
Euroset chairman Yevgeniy Chichvarkin, who previously worked
with United Russia, including on its "Strategy 2020" forum on
business. (Note: Nemtsov speculated that Chichvarkin, who has
faced "raiding" on his Euroset chain, may be seeking
alternative political protection. End note.)

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With Kremlin Backing and No Debts, Electoral Optimism High
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10. (SBU) The three chairmen declined to predict their
prospects for the March regional elections. However, Duma
Vice-Speaker Oleg Morozov told Kommersant November 14 that
Right Cause may benefit from President Medvedev's November 5
proposal to reserve a couple Duma seats for parties garnering
between 5-7 percent of the vote. Political scientist Dmitriy
Orlov seconded this prediction on November 14. At the
November 16 inaugural congress, former DPR head Andrei
Bogdanov improbably predicted that Right Cause would receive
15 percent of the vote. Russians, however, may not share
Bogdanov's optimism: a VTsIOM poll conducted just before the
inaugural congress revealed that 32 percent of Russians said
it is "hard to say" if the party will be successful, and 29
percent do not believe it has any chance of success.


11. (SBU) In any case, Right Cause has received a substantial
gift to mark its birth. The Central Election Commission's
Yelena Dubrovina told Kommersant November 18 that Right Cause
is not a legal successor of the three dissolved parties, and
as such the CEC has canceled those parties' debts for the
2007 Duma campaign. SPS's debts alone totaled 7 million USD.
(Note: Parties receiving less than 3 percent of the vote are
obliged to pay for their "free" campaign media airtime and
print space. End note.)

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Comment
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12. (C) The disappearance of one of the last opposition
standard-bearers (Yabloko yet remains) marks a clear victory
for the Kremlin in marginalizing political adversaries and
effectively controlling their continued presence on the
political stage. Although SPS barely registered in recent
national elections and had minuscule support outside Moscow
and St. Petersburg, its party registration represented a

potential, however unlikely, rallying point for opposition
should the economic crisis metastasize into a political one.
The integration of government loyalists into the party
leadership signals the Kremlin's careful oversight of its
"project." An important unknown now is who exactly -
Medvedev, Putin, Surkov, or someone else - will control Right
Cause's agenda and membership. And whatever Gozman's
purported intentions are to be his own man, it is clear that
any opposition from Right Cause will be within
Kremlin-dictated limits. End comment.
BEYRLE