RUSSIANS SPLIT ON FUTURE OF RELATIONS UNDER OBAMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003330 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL RS SUBJECT: RUSSIANS SPLIT ON FUTURE OF RELATIONS UNDER OBAMA Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Eric Rubin for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The November 4 U.S. presidential elections elicited great media coverage and expert commentary in Russia, but opinions about the incoming Obama administration have been decidedly mixed. While many government leaders welcomed a change in U.S. leadership, others expected the status quo. Public opinion polls indicated that twice as many Russians favored Obama over McCain, and three times as many preferred Democratic leadership in the White House over Republican. Political expert and journalist predictions varied: many anticipated that the economic crisis would direct the Obama administration, others believed that the President-elect's purported lack of experience would complicate Russia-U.S. bilateral relations, and some pointed to the enormous trust from the international community that Senator Obama brought with him into office. While some political party and religious leaders applauded the decision, others reacted cautiously. End Summary. Government Leaders -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Concerning bilateral relations, Russian government figures viewed the change in leadership through different prisms. Medvedev candidly "pinned new hopes" on the arrival of a new administration during talks at the Council on Foreign Relations on November 16, stating that Russian-U.S relations depended on mutual trust. MFA DFM Grigoriy Karasin perceived Obama's election as "freshness in the relationship," which would lead to constructiveness in dealing with the challenges and threats of the 21st century. Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachev hoped that Obama's election would lead to an improvement in relations as the President-elect was "less limited" than his opponent, yet cautioned that Vice President-elect and "Russophobe" Joseph Biden could negatively influence the White House. Chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee Mikhail Margelov considered those comprising Obama's team to be "cold" towards Russia. Moscow Oblast Governor Boris Gromov told Kommersant on November 3 that both Obama and McCain have an anti-Russian policy; therefore, it did not matter who won. Public Opinion and Latent Racism -------------- ¶3. (SBU) While the Russian polling agency Levada Center found that more Russians "sympathized" with Obama (35 percent) than McCain (14 percent),the vast majority did not have a preference (51 percent). Levada published the results of the pre-election poll, conducted from October 24-29, on November 11. While most respondents had trouble answering the question (50 percent),more respondents (39 percent) indicated that it was easier to find a common language with Democrats than those who found relations easier with Republicans (11 percent). When asked about the U.S. presidents who had the best relations with Russia during their terms of office, 28 percent cited Bill Clinton, 11 percent said George Bush, Sr., 10 percent favored Ronald Reagan, and 8 percent preferred George Bush, Jr. ¶4. (C) In private conversations, Russian commentators are prepared to concede that racism runs deep, with many Russians stunned that a majority of Americans walked into ballot booths prepared to vote for an African-American. There has been little or no soul-searching in Russia prompted by the Obama election: the prospect of a "person of Caucasus nationality," for instance, winning a national office is a question too absurd to ponder. On November 14, rabidly anti-American host of the television program "Odnako" Mikhail Leontyev shaded his commentary with racial overtones, referring to President-elect Obama as a "black Mickey Mouse" in an attempt to show that he will favor the same policies as previous administrations. Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov charged to us that Russian leaders would play subtly on the deeply entrenched racism of their populace to continue an anti-U.S. drumbeat. Yet, 60% of Russians -- with even higher percentages for those under 44 years old -- surveyed in an October 24 VTsIOM poll considered it possible that the U.S. would elect an African-American president. Political Experts -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Numerous Russian political experts saw President-elect Obama as a positive figure for Russian-U.S. relations. Institute of National Strategy President Stanislav Belkovskiy commented that Obama's election would complicate the Kremlin's efforts to play Washington and the European Union off against each another. As a result, he advised the Russian administration to extend a hand in friendship and cooperation to the U.S., especially considering Russia's dependence on the United States in managing the economic crisis. Institute of Global Economics and International Relations head researcher Georgiy Mirskiy believed that Obama's election would change America's image from a country of "stupid racists," would revamp U.S. relations with allies in the Middle East, and disappointed terrorists like Osama bin Laden. Political scientist and State Duma member Sergey Markov foresaw a friendly relationship between Obama and Medvedev, considering that they are both Internet users, probably read the same books, and even possibly listened to the same music. ¶6. (SBU) Some Russian political experts commented that Obama's election complicated Russian-U.S. bilateral relations. Director of the Globalization Institute Mikhail Delyagin considered Obama's election a definite minus compared to Senator McCain, a known quantity in Russia. Delyagin characterized Obama as the American Gorbachev, one who would attempt to solve American domestic problems by reducing its international presence. He said such a policy would destabilize America and, therefore, create chaos in Russia. (Note: Delyagin told us privately on November 14 that Gorbachev was not pleased at the comparison. End Note). Conservative commentators such as Aleksandr Prokhanov also spun a Gorbachev-Obama analogy, suggesting that the President-elect would try to "perform a miracle on an active volcano," dragging the entire world, much less a crisis-ridden new U.S. administration, down with his domestic reforms. On the international scene, Prokhanov sketched his expectations for Iraq, making specific comparisons to the disaster caused by Gorbachev pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Obama's intentions to withdraw troops from Iraq. Moscow State University Professor of financial strategy Vladimir Kvint discounted Obama's previous management experience on November 6, saying he believed the Obama administration "would be starting from zero" in relations with Russia. According to Kvint, "Democrats pay little attention to the economy," aside from the redistribution of wealth, and pay more attention to human rights and freedom of the press. Georgiy Mirskiy regarded Obama as an extremely talented, open-minded individual, but felt that Russian-U.S. diplomacy would become more difficult. ¶7. (SBU) Several experts professed that Obama would not greatly influence U.S.-Russia relations. Institute of Globalization and Social Movements Director Boris Kagarlitskiy stated that the economic crisis -- and neither Obama's nor Medvedev's personal decisions -- would influence future Russian-U.S. relations. He categorized Obama as a "dark-skinned president with the outlook of a white elitist." Director of the Moscow VGPU Linguistic Institute Eduard Kurlyand felt that many Russians cared more about the results of the U.S. election than Americans did, adding that Americans remained more preoccupied with stock indices than campaign slogans. Kurlyand, acknowledging that the state of bilateral relations was complex, said national and local issues mattered more to him than events in the United States. Journalists -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Russian news daily Novaya Gazeta's Vladimir Korovkin compared President-elect Obama to President Kennedy in a November 14 column, drawing parallels between the demographic barriers both overcame, the hope for change that both inspired, and the difficult political situations both inherited after their respective electoral victories. Korovkin dismissed claims that nothing changed after the election, and cautioned against maintaining the same course in relations with the new U.S. administration, characterizing such a policy as a "colossal strategic error" that would present Russia as a "stupid and evil hooligan." Deputy editor of the Russian daily New Times Andrey Kolesnikov compared the current global dynamic facing Medvedev and Obama to the possibilities for a warming in relations presented to Nixon and Brezhnev in the 1970s. "Russia in Global Politics" editor Fyodor Lukyanov questioned whether relations with Russia would be a priority of the Obama administration, and did not expect major changes. Opposition Leaders -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Against the backdrop of opposition party restructuring in Russia, a few political party leaders expressed differing opinions on Obama. United Civil Front leader Garry Kasparov told Ekho Moskvy on November 4 that Obama can begin his administration with a clean slate -- an option that was not available to McCain -- and with the support of millions in Africa and the Middle East before taking office. However, European partners accustomed to blaming global problems on the United States faced a new dynamic after the election. Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted the collapse of the United States and launched a racist attack against Obama, claiming America elected him only "because he's black" and peddling the idea of takeovers of France, Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland by minority populations from the Middle East and Caucasus. Imprisoned Yukos frontman Mikhail Khodorkovskiy expressed expectations for a Gorbachev-era perestroika in the United States during a November Vedomosti interview. Controversial, dissident leader of the liberal Democratic Union Valeriya Novodvorskaya cast Obama as a demagogue with socialist convictions that would negatively affect the entire world order. Religious Figures -------------- ¶10. (C) Some Russian religious figures approved of the incoming U.S. administration. Moscow's head mufti, Ravil Gaynutdin, told the Ambassador that the election of Obama showed Russians how "a real democracy worked" and hoped the new administration would strengthen mutual understanding between Russia and America. Deputy Director for External Relations of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) Vsevolod Chaplin expressed hope to the Interfax news agency on November 5 that the Obama administration would listen and pay attention to the opinions and views of the ROC. Priest and dissident Gleb Yakunin told us on November 14 that a "glorious miracle" occurred when citizens elected Obama, showing the world how progressive and loving Americans truly were. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) If Medvedev's recent conciliatory comments in Washington are an indication, the Russian government appears ready to welcome the Obama administration for the development of closer bilateral relations. We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops. BEYRLE