HUMANITARIANS WARY AS VIOLENCE SPREADS TO NORTH OSSETIA

UNCLAS MOSCOW 003137 DEPARTMENT FOR PRM/ECA AND EUR/RUS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER EAID RS SUBJECT: HUMANITARIANS WARY AS VIOLENCE SPREADS TO NORTH OSSETIA REF: Moscow 3089 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Unknown attackers blew up a local official's car in front of a downtown hotel in the relative safe haven of Vladikavkaz. Expatriate humanitarians living and working in North Ossetia and its neighboring republics acknowledge a generally deteriorating regional security situation with no improvement in sight. The alternatives for the Russian Government - a harsh security crackdown or fresh political initiative that could upset the status quo local bureaucracy - are unpalatable to Moscow. End Summary. Havoc on the High Street -------------- ¶2. (U) Russian press reported October 22 on the bombing of a car belonging to the first deputy mayor of the North Ossetian capital city Vladikavkaz. The official, Mairam Tamayev, was hospitalized in grave condition or only with a slight leg injury, depending on the account. An Itar-Tass police source reported an explosive yield of 200-300 grams of TNT. Police investigators have not yet identified a perpetrator. ¶3. (SBU) The most striking element of the crime was where it took place: in front of the Hotel Vladikavkaz, the city's faded Brezhnevian former Intourist hotel. Along with the Imperial, this is one of only two hotels in North Ossetia that the UN Department of Safety and Security in the Russian Federation has cleared for official use. (Note: UNDSS has not cleared any hotels in Ingushetia, Chechnya, or Dagestan. End note.) It is a 20-minute walk from World Vision Russia's team house and even closer to some UNHCR expatriate staff housing. An attack in such a prominent location thus suggests that the region's insurgents and criminal elements have been emboldened by recent successful assaults on authorities in neighboring Ingushetia (reftel). ¶4. (SBU) In a meeting with Refcoord and ACS Chief October 21, Medecins San Frontieres (MSF) officials said escalating violence in the region is of great concern to them. MSF-Holland has three offices in the North Caucasus - in Nalchik (Kabardino-Balkaria), Nazran (Ingushetia),and Groznyy (Chechnya). Head of Mission Willem de Jonge, a Dutch citizen, observed that the threat posed by Muslim extremists seems to be growing across the region, with Ingushetia in particular "spiraling out of control." Jonge was particularly concerned with the emergence of suicide attacks. Although such attacks have thus far been few, they are worrying simply because they are not a typically Caucasian form of political violence. ¶5. (SBU) International Rescue Committee Russia Country Director Thomas Hill speculated October 20 that Caucasus insurgents are "almost close enough in boots, guns, and funding to launch full-scale [assaults] if they wanted to" but will probably be content simply to take a break over the winter while, as in previous years, continuing to stockpile resources and instill fear among the population, thus weakening the local government. ¶6. (SBU) Not everyone gives the rebels so much credit for being the masters of their own fate. Jo Hegenauer, outgoing UNHCR Vladikavkaz Head of Office, told us October 21 that the October 18 attack against FSB troops in Ingushetia (reftel) was not really extraordinary and that the Russian military could effectively crack down whenever it wished. Hegenauer, who has just completed three and a half years in the North Caucasus, said he thought most of the region's true radicals had already been killed or were in exile abroad, from where it is much easier to propagandize about a rising Islam-inspired Caucasus Emirate (e.g., on the jihadist "Kavkaz Center" website). Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) For Hegenauer's analysis to be correct the Russian Government would have to be willing to commit itself to use of force on a scale that would draw domestic and, even more so, international condemnation. What we and our humanitarian colleagues can anticipate instead is chronic political and organized criminal violence barely kept in check by federal forces and sometimes uncomfortably close to "home." The alternative, a political fix, would require acknowledging the base of protestors and disenfranchised, replacing corrupt local officials, supporting regional clan and religious leaders, and providing -- and protecting from graft - substantial funding for livelihoods that provide a meaningful alternative to perpetual militancy. BEYRLE