FALL DRAFT EXPECTED TO BE SUCCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003080

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MCAP ECON RS
SUBJECT: FALL DRAFT EXPECTED TO BE SUCCESS

REF: MOSCOW 255

Classified By: A/DCM Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Because Russia now drafts young men to serve
in the military for one year, rather than two years or 18
months, the Russian military must replace all of its
conscript soldiers in 2008. Official sources and experts
agree that the Russian military will meet its goal of
conscripting approximately 219,000 young men into the armed
forces in the fall draft that began October 1 (up from
133,200 drafted during the spring 2008 draft),in part thanks
to the elimination of many draft exemptions. Some experts
argue that the reduction in the term of service, along with
the current economic downturn, will attract more young men to
join the military, which could also assist the military's
goal to draft better-qualified young men. Experts doubt that
shortening the length of service will improve the hazing
problem in the military. Contract soldiers, many of whom
serve as noncommissioned officers (NCOs),will have to take
on a greater role in training raw recruits, as well as
perform some jobs they previously did not do. In a recent
poll, most respondents approved of the recent conscription
reforms, although some groups would like to abolish
conscription in Russia. End Summary.

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Drafting More Soldiers Changes Little
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2. (C) Because the Russian military now drafts young men to
serve in the military for only one year, Russia will need to
replace all of its conscript soldiers this year. Deputy
Director of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy
Aleksandr Belkin told us that reducing the term of service
for draftees will help the military reach its target of
conscripting approximately 219,000 young men into the armed
forces this autumn (during the spring draft the military
conscripted 133,200 men). "Serving for one year
psychologically makes a big difference, rather than serving
for two years or 18 months," he argued. More young men will
be willing to serve in the military now, he argued. Belkin
also posited that the current economic downturn in Russia
would also attract some young men to military service who
otherwise could not find jobs.


3. (U) General-Colonel Vasiliy Smirnov of the General Staff
told local press that the military has already taken steps to
meet the logistical challenges of drafting such a large
number of men, including making sure each conscript receives
the uniforms and equipment he needs, and that each has
adequate transportation arrangements to reach his post of
duty. The experts agree that the draft is going according to
plan.

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GOR Wants to Improve the Quality of Soldiers Drafted
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4. (U) Military commands across Russia want to improve the
quality of the young men they draft. For example, the MOD
wants at least 25 percent of draftees to have a higher
education, up from 21.5 percent in spring 2008 and 13.5
percent in the fall of 2007. In the spring 2008 draft, only
70 percent of young men conscripted had a high school degree.
About 30 percent finished the ninth grade, while 0.3 percent
had finished only the fourth grade. Nezavisimaya Gazeta
reported that some draftees were illiterate. In Chelyabinsk,
about 20 percent of draftees were either orphans or from
single-parent homes.


5. (C) The Head of the Union of Soldiers' Mothers Committees
Valentina Melnikova pointed out young men can be found,
thanks largely to the elimination of many draft exemptions
(reftel),which most experts support. For example, the
military will more rigorously enforce the requirement that
those who were exempted from the draft while studying now
serve their terms after graduation. Other exemptions, such
as family obligations, have also been eliminated.

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Little Effect on Hazing
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6. (C) The experts agree that the shortening the term of
service to one year will have little effect on the hazing
problem in the military. Hazing, they argue, is a societal
problem, and not exclusive to the military. The best way to
reduce hazing, according to Ilya Kramnik of RIA Novosti, is
to keep soldiers as busy as possible. Melnikova pointed out
that the issue is not limited to conscripts hazing their
fellow conscripts; sometimes officers and NCOs commit similar
acts.

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Role of Contract Soldiers
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7. (C) Many experts felt that one year is too short a time to
serve. It takes almost a year to train a conscript soldier,
and during the second year conscripts perform their jobs in
the military. With the shortening of the term of service,
NCOs (many of whom are contract soldiers) and officers will
have to take more responsibility for conscripts, Kramnik
argued. Second-year conscripts will no longer be in charge
of first-year recruits. Kramnik said the military will have
to strengthen its NCO corps if Russia is to have a modern
army. NCOs should be professional soldiers with leadership
roles. Empowering NCOs along U.S. lines is the only way to
ensure proper training of raw recruits, he argued. Other
analysts noted that conscript soldiers will likely need to
undergo additional refresher training courses in the military
reserves.

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Popular Opinion of the Draft
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8. (U) In an opinion poll of 1,600 people in 42 Russian
regions, published October 9, 54 percent of respondents
agreed with the Russian policy of shortening the term of
service to one year and simultaneously getting rid of many
draft exemptions. Forty-four percent, however, said that
shortening the draft term to one year would decrease the
military's effectiveness. Fifty-two percent of the
respondents said they favored mandatory military training
courses in high schools, while twenty-nine percent said the
training should be offered as elective courses.


9. (U) St. Petersburg, however, saw demonstrations by the
Stop Conscription movement, which includes members of the
Republican Party of Russia, the Yabloko Democratic Party, the
United Civil Front, and the youth movements Oborona and DA!.
The organizers originally planned to hold a "March for an
All-Volunteer Army" in St. Petersburg's Victory Park, but
authorities denied them permission. Arrests were made when
some of the activists started distributing leaflets. Yelena
Popova of Yabloko and the United Civil Front was fined 800
rubles (approximately USD 30). Stop Conscription activists
claimed the arrests were "baseless."

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Comment
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10. (C) Economic pressures are driving the downsizing of
Russia's officer corps at the same time as they make filling
conscription quotas somewhat easier. As comprehensive
defense reform efforts are discussed, the ongoing reliance on
draftees continues to bedevil the establishment of a
professional Russian military.
BEYRLE