UNITED RUSSIA WINS BIG IN REGIONAL ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003054

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA WINS BIG IN REGIONAL ELECTIONS,
INTERNET VOTING TESTED

REF: A. VLADIVOSTOK 116

B. MOSCOW 3031

C. MOSCOW 2910

Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor David Kostelancik fo
r reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: October 12 regional elections produced
predictably large victories for United Russia in Chechnya,
Kemerovo Oblast, Zabaikalskiy Krai and Irkutsk Region (see
Ref A for Sakhalin election details). Kemerovo and Chechnya
each delivered United Russia tallies over 80 percent; Just
Russia won four seats in Chechnya and one token seat in
Kemerovo. Leaders of the Communist Party (KPRF),LDPR, and
Just Russia all bemoaned irregularities in Chechnya and
Kemerovo, while KPRF also criticized electoral procedures in
Irkutsk. Voters in Irkutsk and Zabaykalskiy Krai each gave
United Russia approximately 50 percent, with the other State
Duma parties (Just Russia, LDPR, and KPRF) also winning
seats. United Russia also won mayoral races in Vologda and
Stavropol. An internet voting experiment in Tula Region
marked the first attempt at on-line voting in Russia,
although logistical and security concerns remained
unanswered. Pundits are now awaiting possible personnel
changes, especially among government and party officials
associated with United Russia. End Summary.

Chechnya: United Russia Dominant Amid Near-Full Turnout
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2. (SBU) Chechnya's 95 percent turnout nearly fulfilled
President Ramzan Kadyrov's pre-election promise that "turnout
will be at least 100 percent or even more." United Russia
dominated the election with 88 percent of the vote, and Just
Russia garnered 9 percent, clearing the Republic's legal
threshold of 7 percent to seat representatives. The
remaining five parties on the ballot failed to win seats in
the new unicameral parliament, with the Communists and LDPR
capturing only half a percent between them. LDPR leader
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy protested in an October 13 statement
that lopsided wins for United Russia in Chechnya and Kemerovo
constituted "an accident of Russian democracy." Central
Election Commission Chair Vladimir Churov announced October
13 that there were "no serious violations" recorded in any
region holding elections.

Kemerovo: United Russia Sweeps, Shenanigans Alleged
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3. (SBU) Far outstripping even their own optimistic
predictions, United Russia bulldozed the other three
parliamentary parties by winning 85 percent of the vote in
Kemerovo Oblast. No other party met the 7 percent threshold,
with KPRF taking only 3 percent and emerging empty-handed in
the region for the first time in its history. Constitutional
requirements stipulate that at least two parties must hold
seats, however, so Just Russia will receive one token seat
despite winning just 5.5 percent of the vote. Turnout
totaled 68 percent of eligible voters.


4. (SBU) Both the Communists and Just Russia dismissed the
official results in Kemerovo. Just Russia State Duma Deputy
Gennadiy Gudkov remarked October 13 that the result in
Kemerovo made it "absolutely clear that we have embarked on
building a one-party system." KPRF Central Committee member
Ivan Melnikov told press October 13 that regional authorities
had prevented observers from entering polling stations, and
that illegal "arbitrary administrative pressure" during the
campaign hamstrung KPRF efforts. KPRF leader Gennadiy
Zyuganov announced October 13 his party's intention to
contest the Kemerovo results, thus adding to the ongoing
legal feud involving KPRF, United Russia, and Kemerovo
Governor Aman Tuleyev (Ref C).

Zabaykalskiy Krai: Duma Parties And Agrarians Win Seats
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) All four State Duma parties passed the threshold to
take seats in Zabaykalskiy Krai's regional parliament. As
expected (Ref B),United Russia won a majority of the votes
with 55 percent; the Communists took second place with 13
percent. LDPR took just under 11 percent and Just Russia 9
percent. The Agrarian Party, with 7 percent, was the only
non-parliamentary party to win any seats in any of the five
regional elections. However, the Agrarians will merge into
United Russia before the end of 2008. Only 45 percent of
voters cast ballots.

Irkutsk: Duma Parties Win Seats, Communists Still Protest
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6. (SBU) More parties won higher percentages of the vote in
Irkutsk Region than in any of the other four regions holding
elections. In fact, only here did United Russia fail to win
a majority of votes, taking "just" 49 percent. LDPR took
second place with 15 percent; the Communists took 13 percent;
and Just Russia won 8 percent. The Agrarians and the Greens
both fell short of the 7 percent barrier, winning 6 and 5
percent, respectively. Despite improving on its 11 percent
result in the 2004 regional election, KPRF refused to
recognize the Irkutsk results, citing numerous violations by
United Russia and by regional authorities. For example,
KPRF's Melnikov alleged on October 13 that United Russia
conducted an illegal referendum at polling stations in
support of the so-called "People's Budget." Just 38 percent
of eligible voters went to the polls.

Mayoral Elections
--------------


7. (SBU) Vologda elected United Russia's Yevgeniy Shulepov
as its new mayor. Incumbent Stavropol mayor Nikolay Paltsev,
also of United Russia, kept his job by winning 75 percent of
the vote.

CEC Tests Internet Voting And Electoral Hot-Line
-------------- ---


8. (SBU) The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC)
conducted an internet voting experiment on October 12 in
conjunction with municipal elections in Novomoskovsk, Tula
Region. The on-line votes did not count in the actual
election, but rather were counted along with traditional
paper ballots to assess accuracy and voter receptiveness to
internet voting. Participation in the experiment was
voluntary and represented about 10 percent of the entire
vote, falling short of the 15 percent that CEC Chairman
Churov predicted beforehand would represent a success.
Internet voters received a CD-ROM that could be used only
once to vote on-line. Representatives from the U.S.,
Finnish, Estonian, and Kazakh embassies, as well as
OSCE/ODIHR officials from Warsaw, observed the internet
voting. Although election officials told us that they
encountered no technical problems, they could not answer
questions regarding the overall integrity of an internet-only
election or how to account for CDs that might be lost,
stolen, or sold. Alexander Mashkov, Deputy Chairman of the
Tula Region Electoral Commission, added that the experiment
was "expensive" and he did not know when internet voting
might ever be used to capture actual votes. Indeed, CEC
officials in Moscow told us October 12 and 13 that costs and
benefits of internet voting would need to be assessed.


9. (SBU) CEC International Relations Department Head Aleksey
Kudachkin also described for us innovative means for
promoting higher voter turnout and the application of uniform
voting requirements. For example, Kudachkin touted CEC
cooperation with the Public Chamber in creating a special
hot-line in Moscow that voters from all regions could call if
they had complaints about voting that could not be resolved
by local authorities. He said that they hoped to expand
their ability to address such complaints before March 2009
regional elections in Kabardino-Balkaria Republic,
Karachayevo-Cherkess Republic, the Republics of Tatarstan and
Khakassia, the Arkhangelsk, Bryansk, Volgograd, and Vladimir
Regions, and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The more authoritarian power structures in Chechnya
and Kemerovo ensured high turnouts and big United Russia
wins. More intriguing are the wider distributions of votes
and lower voter turnouts in Irkutsk and Zabaikalskiy Krai,
where regional authorities could not deliver overwhelming
United Russia victories. Accordingly, two key indicators
leading up to the March 2009 regional elections would signal
the Kremlin's intention to further consolidate regional power
while warning governors that it will not tolerate lackluster
get-out-the-vote efforts: (1) the Kremlin sacks or admonishes
governors or party leaders in Irkutsk and Zabaikalskiy Krai
for their regions' sub-50 percent turnout. United Russia
insider Andrey Silantyev told us October 15 this is a
distinct possibility; and (2) United Russia infuses fresh
blood into the regional parties before its late November
congress. Silantyev told us that changes were likely, though
they might not be made until just before, or even during, the
congress. All final personnel decisions, he said, would be
made by United Party leader Vladimir Putin.
BEYRLE