MEDVEDEV ANNOUNCES CREATION OF AIR-SPACE DEFENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002977 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018 TAGS: MARR MCAP PGOV PREL RS SUBJECT: MEDVEDEV ANNOUNCES CREATION OF AIR-SPACE DEFENSE SYSTEM REF: MOSCOW 2822 Classified By: Political M/C Alice Wells for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. As part of his five-point plan for modernizing the Russian military, President Medvedev announced September 28 that Russia would create an air-space defense system to bolster its nuclear deterrence by 2020. Its creation could transform the chain of command for Russia's strategic air and space weapons systems, which may unite under the authority of one service branch. Any organizational restructuring, however, could encounter resistance from a Russian General Staff notoriously suspicious of change, although with decreasing influence due to Defense Minister Serdyukov's efforts to reign in their powers. Many experts asserted that Medvedev's announcement was a reaction to the deployment of U.S. missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. Weaknesses during Russia's Georgian campaign, including the poor performance of space-based intelligence and communications equipment and the lack of sophisticated weaponry to fight a modern air campaign, may have also factored into the decision. End Summary. Military Modernization Plan - Grand Ideas, Few Details -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On September 28, President Medvedev announced a five-part plan to improve components of the Russian military. First, all military units will be placed on a state of constant readiness. Second, Medvedev called for raising the effectiveness of the military command, which some interpret as the establishment of a joint command. Third, Russia will improve its military personnel and education systems. Fourth, soldiers' socioeconomic conditions will improve, including monetary incentives for good performance. Lastly, and the issue to which many analysts in Moscow devoted their attention, Russia will modernize its weapons systems and intelligence assets, in particular through the creation of an air-space defense complex, in order to guarantee the country's nuclear deterrence. Medvedev did not elaborate on this point, leaving experts and journalists to speculate how the system might be designed. Several press reports suggested that the system would not become a separate branch in Russia's badly organized military. Rather, the new system might prove to be one aspect of meaningful structural reform, to which Medvedev alluded in his second point. The online daily Gazeta.ru cited an anonymous source in the Ministry of Defense, who alleged the new command would unite Russia's ballistic missile defense and anti-air defense systems. ¶3. (C) Military analysts like Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Independent Military Review Viktor Litovkin told us that for Medvedev's plan to be effective, the military would have to take more drastic measures, such as uniting all the Air Force and space forces. However, Litovkin expressed doubt that the military would quickly consent to such major organizational changes. Even in the aftermath of the South Ossetian conflict, where Russia experienced unnecessary losses due to poor air/space technology and the inability of air and ground forces to work in tandem, it would take a more serious threat for the air-space defense system to become full operational. Rigidity in the General Staff was not the only potential complication experts cited. Heritage Foundation Moscow Director and former Duma Deputy Yevgeniy Volk told us that should oil prices continue to decline, the GOR would not be able to fulfill its inflated defense budget targets (reftel), which Volk attributed to a "Cold War" desire to match U.S. defense programs ("this is a return to mutually assured destruction," he claimed). Faced with a revenue decline, the Ministry of Defense would struggle to invest in a feasible air-space defense system, not to mention new weapons and soldiers' salaries. Experts Analyze Rationale for Air-Space Defense -------------- -- ¶4. (C) The creation of an air-space defense system has been discussed for years, but only now has a directive been given to proceed with its implementation. Experts generally attributed Medvedev's decision to the U.S. missile defense program in Eastern Europe, and fears that Russia's current nuclear deterrence would be insufficient to suppress a U.S. attack from the air or space. Leonid Ivashov, a nationalist former General and current President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, claimed U.S. and NATO military programs - Global Missile Defense and Prompt Global Strike - were directed against Russia, and only a Russian defense system based in space could provide adequate deterrence. Yevgeniy Volk and Viktor Litovkin agreed that Medvedev had the U.S. missile defense plans in mind when he announced the creation of an air-space defense program. Although Litovkin acknowledged that current U.S. plans for its missile defense sites in Eastern Europe would not pose a threat to Russia, the deployment of 25, 50, or 100 missiles in Poland would. He argued that provocative actions by the U.S., such as expanding its missile defense program, would help Russian society rally around the development of this project. Yet, Litovkin claimed that glaring weaknesses in the Russian military's performance in South Ossetia - particularly its unreliable satellite and space-based intelligence and communications technology - also prompted the Russian leadership to action. (Note: Medvedev himself admitted as much several weeks ago (reftel),when he criticized the inferiority of Russian military equipment. End note.) Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Medvedev's latest plan to modernize the army looks similar to previous announcements after the cessation of hostilities in South Ossetia - grandiose designs that lack a clear concept for execution. We anticipate that Medvedev's instructions and the increase in the defense budget may get the program off the ground, but completion of the plan will take considerably more resources and political will. As military experts attest, if the GOR does not implement serious structural changes to bring the various components of an air-space defense complex under a united command, the program could face impediments. Indeed, Defense Minister Serdyukov already faces significant resistance to reform within the General Staff and the various services. RUBIN