GOR HOLDS ON TO TROOP WITHDRAWAL DESPITE RECENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002972

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RS
SUBJECT: GOR HOLDS ON TO TROOP WITHDRAWAL DESPITE RECENT
VIOLENCE

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice G. Wells for reasons
1.4(b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The GOR has termed the October 3 bombing
in Tskhinvali, which killed eight Russian troops, a terrorist
act. Variously calling the blast an attempt to provoke new
military action, destabilize South Ossetia, or prevent Russia
from fulfilling its Sarkozy-Medvedev obligations, GOR
agencies are reacting quickly to fulfill President Medvedev's
instructions to investigate the incident and "take all
necessary steps to prevent criminal acts against Russian
peacekeepers." Nevertheless, both FM Lavrov and the MFA
Special Envoy for South Ossetia confirmed that Russia would
not use the blast or other recent incidents in the region to
postpone the withdrawal. Russia used the attack to
underscore the danger of rearming Georgia, calling into
question Tbilisi's commitment to no use of force. End
Summary.

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Goal: Destabilization or Delay
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2. (U) Russian authorities reacted strongly to news of the
blast in South Ossetia on October 3 that killed eight Russian
troops (Vremya Novostey said the death toll was nine Russian
troops and two local residents). On October 6, the MFA
condemned the attack along with more recent violent incidents
-- on October 5, a construction worker in Tskhinvali was
killed, and on October 6 there was an explosion near a column
of Russian forces departing an area near Abkhazia -- and
spoke of an attempt to provoke new military action. However,
the MFA noted FM Lavrov's letter to his French counterpart
Kouchner, reaffirming Russia's intent to comply with its
obligation to withdraw from Georgia proper by October 10.
Lavrov called on the EU monitoring forces to take necessary
measures to stabilize the situation in Georgia.


3. (SBU) Reacting to President Medvedev's order for a
"painstaking investigation" into the car bomb blast, plus a
tightening of security in South Ossetia, instructing the
Ministry of Defense (MOD) to take "all necessary steps to
prevent criminal acts against Russian peacekeepers and the
civilian population," the chairman of the Investigations
Committee of the Procurator, Vladimir Markin, announced that
a criminal case had been opened on suspicion of murder,
followed by a separate case on suspicion of a terrorist act.
Preempting the results of the investigation, Markin added
that preliminary investigations had shown that the Committee
had "all grounds" to believe the terrorist act had been
organized by Georgian special forces, with the "intent to
destabilize the situation in the independent (South Ossetian)
republic."


4. (U) The MOD in turn released a statement calling the
explosion in Tskhinvali a planned terrorist act, but posited
that the act was "aimed at preventing the sides from
implementing the clauses of the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan."

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Withdrawal on Schedule
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5. (C) In an October 7 meeting, MFA Special Envoy for South
Ossetia Yuriy Popov said he was "absolutely positive" the
Russian troops would be withdrawn by October 10. The
information and public relations service of the Russian
Infantry Forces also reported that Russia was meeting its
withdrawal obligations earlier than agreed.

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Playing up Danger of Georgian Rearmament
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6. (C) The explosion underscored PM Lavrov's September 30
statements that Russia intends to "demilitarize Georgia,"
using both observers on the ground and no-fly zones near the
borders to the breakaway regions, and his continued objection
to any decision to rearm Georgia. In his September 29 press
conference in New York, Lavrov repeated his criticism of the
West's arming Georgia "beyond any meaningful defense needs,"
including by "covert means." Working level MFA contacts
reinforce Lavrov's comments, and point to alleged statements
by members of President Saakashvili's inner circle
threatening renewed military activity as further proof of the
unreliability of Tbilisi's promises of no use of force.

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Comment
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MOSCOW 00002972 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) Russia appears determined to uphold its side of the
Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement to withdraw its troops from
Georgia proper by October 10, but will certainly use the
October 3 attack to justify Russia's intention to station
7,600 troops in the breakaway regions.
RUBIN