MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR GRIGORIEV ON THE SITUATION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002857

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RS
SUBJECT: MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR GRIGORIEV ON THE SITUATION IN
ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice G. Wells for reasons
1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: MFA Deputy Director Semyon Grigoriev told us
September 23 that any technical rollover of the UNOMIG
mandate would need to be followed later by core revisions, by
changing the name, splitting it into two units in Georgia
proper and in Abkhazia, and renegotiating its mandate,
including possibly strengthening the human rights component.
He insisted Russia was striving to protect human rights in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and noted Lavrov's instruction to
the Russian PKO commander to honor OSCE Terhi Hakkala's
request for access to the security belt. Grigoriev said
Russia was preparing its own concept for the October 15
security conference, and had requested France's views. He
judged South Ossetia's survivability as a nation improbable,
and made no effort to defend GOR charges of "genocide" in
Tskhinvali. End Summary.

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Abkhazia-UNOMIG
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2. (C) MFA 4th CIS Deputy Director Semyon Grigoriev told us
September 23 that FM Lavrov's view of the future of UNOMIG
was that the name of the mission must be changed, and it must
be separated into two linked units--one in Georgia proper,
the other operating in Abkhazia. Grigoriev judged the size
of the contingent--about 100 persons--to be sufficient
(conceding in the process that eight OSCE monitors were too
few in South Ossetia),but argued that UNOMIG's mandate,
while successful so far, needed revision. He stressed its
existence was based on the 1994 agreement linking CIS
peacekeepers and the UNOMIG mandate, but Georgia had since
quit the agreement, with no CIS peacekeepers remaining in
Abkhazia from October 1. He said UNOMIG's new mandate could
include strengthening the human rights (HR) component and
assistance for refugee and IDP returnees. Grigoriev insisted
the GOR continued to press Abkhaz forces to acknowledge the
IDPs' right to return and to respect minorities' rights,
which were stipulated in the recently signed Friendship
Treaty. Grigoriev predicted that more ethnic Georgians would
return to Gali within a year.

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South Ossetia--Human Rights/OSCE
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3. (C/NF) In response to our review of human rights
violations reported by international organizations and NGO's,
Grigoriev noted the devastation he had personally seen in the
northern ethnic Georgian enclaves of South Ossetia, and
Lavrov's and the MOD's instructions to PKO commander Mayor
General Marat Kulakhmetov to inspect every HR-related
incident reported. Grigoriev said that the head of the OSCE
Mission in Georgia, Terhi Hakkala, had informed Lavrov of
concerns in other villages in South Ossetia, and that Lavrov
had instructed Kulakhmetov to honor Hakkala's request for
full freedom of movement in the security belt.


4. (C/NF) Grigoriev did not challenge our characterization
of ethnic cleansing by the South Ossetians, nor defend GOR
claims of genocide by Georgian forces in Tskhinvali. He
asserted that Russia did not support ethnic cleansing, and
promised to investigate any reports received from HR
organizations. He noted that while there was no legal basis
for the reinforced Russian brigade to be stationed in South
Ossetia yet, Russian forces had not traditionally played the
role of policing inter-ethnic communities. We stressed
Russian responsibility for the actions of its soldiers and
South Ossetian clients.

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South Ossetia--October 15 Conference
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5. (C) Grigoriev confirmed that the GOR had already
requested France's views on the format and range of the
October 15 conference on security agreed to in the September
8 Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement. He said Russia had prepared
its own concept, but was waiting for the French answer before
finalizing it.

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Diverging national survivability
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6. (C/NF) Grigoriev candidly assessed diverging prospects
for survival of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Grigoriev

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predicted that Russia would open embassies in both regions by
year's end. However, while Abkhazia could function "under
certain circumstances" as an independent state, Grigoriev
said it was hard to imagine South Ossetia as independent,
given the lack of power structures such as government or
police. Russia would have to start "from zero."
BEYRLE