GOR PROPOSES RECORD DEFENSE BUDGET AND CSTO'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002822 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV RS MCAP ECON EFIN MARR SUBJECT: GOR PROPOSES RECORD DEFENSE BUDGET AND CSTO'S MILITARIZATION REF: MOSCOW 2800 Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Criticism of the Russian military's performance in the South Ossetian crisis factored into the GOR's decision to propose a record defense budget for 2009-2011 (reftel). After the conflict in South Ossetia, President Medvedev admitted that the Russian military was not yet an effective, modern force, and claimed Georgia's aggression and Western weapons supplies to Georgia made it necessary for Russia to modernize its military. In a closed Duma session on September 10, parliamentarians took Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov to task for the Armed Forces' glaring weaknesses, with some calling for his resignation. Russia may have to factor into the budget additional resources for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),which announced September 12 that it would create a Central Asian collective force to deal with threats from Afghanistan. The wide-ranging endorsement of greater defense funding is another signal of Russia's attempts to be a regional and global military power, while the U.S. and NATO may have to deal with an increasingly assertive CSTO that potentially seeks a role in Afghanistan. End Summary. -------------- Record Russian Defense Budget in the Works -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Approximately three weeks after Medvedev asked the Ministry of Defense to improve Russian weapons to match the quality of Western weapons, the GOR prepared a three-year budget request that would allocate a record amount of resources towards defense. Taking into account a budget supplemental approved by the Duma September 10, the projected defense expenditures for 2009 would increase to 1.5 trillion rubles (nearly 60 billion dollars),or three percent of the GDP, a half-percentage point increase from 2009. The percentage of the total budget spent on defense would average 14 percent over the three-year period. Minster of Finance Aleksey Kudrin stated that the government was prepared to allocate even more money to the military if Medvedev instructed it to do so. As part of its budget proposal, the GOR plans to invest heavily in strategic missile systems and space technology. Press reports indicate that part of the defense expenditures will be spent on improving Russia's "Topol'-M" intercontinental ballistic missile complex, "C-400" surface-to-air missile system, "Iskander" theater missile system, and early warning radar systems. In addition to the proposed budget, last week Prime Minister Putin directed the government to invest 67 billion rubles in the development of Russia's troubled Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS). ¶3. (SBU) Members of the Duma also endorsed a record increase in the defense budget during a closed session with Minister of Defense Anatoliy Serdyukov September 10. The Russian Army's weaknesses, particularly the old weapons and outdated technology employed during the South Ossetian conflict, influenced Duma Deputies' decision. Chair of the Committee on International Relations Konstantin Kosachev remarked that the events in Georgia, including the preparedness of Russia's Armed Forces, required "careful analysis." He added that the current level of funding for the military was unsatisfactory, and the "overwhelming majority of Duma Deputies supported the MOD's requests" for more resources. Some Duma members may appeal for more defense resources than is requested in the three-year budget plan. Chair of the Committee on Security Gennadiy Gudkov claimed 1.5 trillion rubles would be "the most modest number" the Duma would approve, while Liberal Democratic Party head Vladimir Zhirinovskiy asserted that his party was ready to give the Armed Forces "as many additional financial resources as will be necessary." United Russia "reformer" and Chairman of the Constitutional Affairs Committee Pligin told us he was concerned lest a bandwagoned effort lead to an exorbitant allocation of resources not tied to strategic objectives. The Duma will hold another closed session September 19 to review the classified sections of the budget proposal. -------------- -- Duma's Confidence in Defense Minister Wavering? -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) Serdyukov faced criticism and some calls for his resignation from prominent Duma members during his "hour with the Parliament." Vice-Speaker of the Duma and member of the party of power United Russia, Lyudmila Sliska, asserted that Georgia's intentions to attack South Ossetia were obvious, and blamed the loss of Russian men and equipment on "a lack of responsibility within the leadership of Russia's security structures, the Ministry of Defense in the first place." She added that Russia was unprepared to defend its citizens and national security along its southern borders, and claimed Russia would face complications in a potential military conflict with NATO. For these reasons, she called on Serdyukov to "collect his courage and resign." Communist Party leader Gennadiy Zyuganov confirmed that his Party had also demanded Serdyukov's removal during the closed sessions, while Communist Duma Deputy Viktor Ilyukhin proclaimed, "Everyone is just tired of this unprofessionalism and absence of responsibility (in the MOD)." -------------- - Experts Doubt Effectiveness of Budget Proposal -------------- - ¶5. (C) Several military experts doubted that the budget increase would achieve its stated objectives. President of the Center of Political Affairs Konstantin Simonov thought corruption and the absence of an effective system of control over expenditures would cause money to be siphoned off and "stuffed into pockets." Aleksandr Khramchikhin, a director at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, noted that the modernization of the military depended not on the amount of money allocated, but on how that money was spent; he agreed that if the control of the money flow was ineffective, "then in the worst cases even a 200-percent increase would not help." Even experts who supported the funding increase, like Deputy Director of the U.S.A.-Canada Institute and retired Major General Pavel Zolotarev, noted that corruption must be eradicated, especially in military procurement, for the budget increases to yield positive results over the long-term. According to the Director of the Center for Military Forecasting Anatoliy Tsyganok, Russia needs to overhaul its approach to defense production and military procurement. Russia exports far more weapons than it produces for itself, a trend that has stunted the modernization of its defense industry. Russia has relied on, and gotten away with, producing and using old Soviet equipment, but the South Ossetian conflict exposed these military-technological weaknesses. To encourage the development of modern weaponry and improve the readiness of the Russian Armed Forces, Tsyganok proposed government financing of fundamental weapons production programs and reorienting the stock market away from the energy complex and towards Russia's missile, air, and naval technology complexes. -------------- -------------- CSTO to Strengthen Capabilities...with Eye on Afghanistan -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On September 12, CSTO General Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha announced the organization would create a Central Asian collective force with 10-11,000 soldiers from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The CSTO's existing Rapid Reaction Force would be incorporated into the new force structure. Military expert Aleksandr Pikaev of the Institute of International Economics and International Relations posited that a joint CSTO command would direct the collective forces. Bordyuzha stated that the goal of the new force would be to react to regional threats caused by instability in Afghanistan. Russia has been pushing for a more active role for the CSTO in stabilizing Afghanistan, and CSTO Heads of State expressed readiness to cooperate with NATO on counternarcotics and counterterrorism in Afghanistan in their September 5 Summit Declaration. ¶7. (C) Experts told us that Russia was pushing to strengthen the CSTO's military components in order to bolster its own regional dominance and to revive its efforts to create an organizational counterweight to NATO. Russia will likely contribute the majority of funds and soldiers to the military command, and could use it to grab more control over the organization. Moscow Heritage Foundation Head Yevgeniy Volk, a vocal opponent of Russian authoritarianism, suspected that as the CSTO transitioned, Russia would attempt more and more to dominate the organization. Eventually, he charged, it could resemble the Warsaw Pact, with Moscow making the important decisions and all the other member states having weak armies. He also thought Russia wanted to show the West that the CSTO was an active and effective organization that should be taken seriously. Volk claimed that as the GOR felt increasingly surrounded by NATO, it would seek closer ties with its CSTO partners, including increasing the number of joint military exercises member states conducted. Pavel Zolotarev said that the CSTO reorganization was a sign that U.S.-Russia, and by extension NATO-Russia, political-military relations would worsen. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) A mediocre assessment of the Russian military's performance in South Ossetia, as well as Moscow's "post-conflict" aspirations for overwhelming regional superiority and global respect, were the catalysts for the GOR's record defense budget. However, the reality is that the modernization of the Russian military faces serious obstacles, notably corruption. Russia's push to improve the CSTO's military capabilities may also face difficulties, not the least of which is the absence of desire among Russia's neighbors for a return to blocpolitics, when almost all - to greater or lesser degrees - enjoy and cultivate relations with the U.S. and NATO. Try as it might to be a counterbalance to NATO, the CSTO's military components have yet to be tested and will face significant obstacles to assuming a role in Afghanistan. We should continue to urge Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan through existing channels at NATO. BEYRLE