RUSSIAN STOCK MARKETS CLOSED, TRADING TO RESUME

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002815

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/RUS, EEB/IFD
TREASURY FOR MEYER, BAKER, TORGERSON
DOC FOR 4231/MAC/EUR/JBROUGHER
NSC FOR ELLISON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2018
TAGS: EFIN ECON PINR RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN STOCK MARKETS CLOSED, TRADING TO RESUME
SEPTEMBER 19

REF: MOSCOW 2804

Classified By: ECON MC Eric T. Schultz, Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) In an unprecedented development, Russia's leading
stock markets remained closed September 18. Limited
transactions to close out overnight lending were allowed on
the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) but the
exchange was otherwise closed all day, as was the benchmark,
dollar-denominated Russian Trading System (RTS). The
government has used the suspension to inject still more
liquidity into Russia's financial system. However, in a
potentially significant step, the government also announced
plans to underwrite the rescue of the investment bank at the
heart of Tuesday's meltdown. This represents the GOR's most
direct intervention to date and is being likened by analysts
to the USG-assisted takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan
Whether it is enough to restore confidence to the markets,
even temporarily, we will see tomorrow, when the markets are
set to reopen. End Summary.

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Russian Markets Stay Closed
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2. (SBU) Russian stock markets, in an unprecedented move,
remained closed on September 18, with only limited trading
allowed on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) to
allow for the completion of overnight interbank lending
transactions, which take place via MICEX. The Federal
Financial Markets Service (FFMS),which regulates Russia's

securities markets, issued the suspension order at noon on
September 17. The closure order said the markets would
remain closed until further notice. Press statements during
the course of September 18 from the Finance Ministry noted
that both exchanges would be open for the resumption of
trading on September 19.


3. (SBU) Many in the financial industry were apparently
unaware that the markets would remain closed September 18
until that morning, when the markets failed to open. The
morning notes from most investment analysts failed to mention
the closure, while expressing optimism that the markets would
rebound on the strength of an uptick in oil prices.

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GOVERNMENT MOVING TOWARD GREATER INTERVENTION
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4. (C) The exchanges failure to open represents the latest
sign of flagging confidence about solvency in the financial
and banking sectors. This came despite repeated government
efforts to inject liquidity into the system, which have been
welcomed by industry analysts. To implement President
Medvedev's pledges to support the country's financial sector,
the Finance Ministry and Central Bank (CBR) have made more
and more funds available to the banking sector. Since late
August, the Finance Ministry has increased the frequency and
volume of the "loans" (i.e., auctioned-off temporarily
available budget funds) it provides and the CBR has increased
the scope of its overnight lending. In the last week, the
Finance Ministry has placed $6 billion in 5-week loans and
$4.7 billion in 1-week loans with the country's largest banks
(namely, Sberbank, VTB, and Gazprombank).


5. (C) However, according to many analysts disappearing
confidence, not a lack of liquidity, is what drove the
markets lower and forced the closure. The proximate cause of
the market's closure was apparently the news on September 17
that KIT Finance, a brokerage firm that has added a range of
financial services to its operations, defaulted on an
overnight loan in the interbank lending market. Reports
emerged that other banks had defaulted on their overnight
obligations, prompting a wave of concerns about which banks
were "good" and which were "bad" counterparties. Prices of
Sberbank and VTB stock went into meltdown and triggered the
trading suspension.


6. (SBU) Officials have taken advantage of the suspension in
securities trading to try to calm frazzled investor nerves

and reiterate the GOR's readiness to guarantee that needed
liquidity is and will be available. On September 18, Finance
Minister Kudrin announced that an additional $8 billion in
1-week loans would be auctioned the following day. On
September 17, the CBR lowered reserve requirements by 4
percentage points, a change that the Finance Minister claimed
would result in roughly $12.0 billion in additional
liquidity. The CBR will also augment credit volumes
available through its repo lending facility, by providing the
face value (as opposed to a discounted value) of the bonds
and other debt instruments banks provide as collateral.


7. (SBU) Potentially of more significance was President
Medvedev's announcement at an economic policy meeting with
Finance Minister Kudrin and CBR Chairman Ignatiyev that the
GOR was considering using as much as $20 billion to "uphold
the stability of the stock market." At the same meeting,
Kudrin pledged to make a 3-month deposit of $2.5 billion in
budget funds with Sberbank, VTB, and Gazprombank. Kudrin
said the funds were to be used to enable another investment
bank, Leader Asset Management, which manages Gazprom's
pension fund, to acquire KIT Finance. Some analysts have
told us they consider the GOR's response to KIT Finance's
distress as analogous to the USG-assisted takeover of Bear
Stearns by JP Morgan last March.

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Comment
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8. (C) It is hard to predict how the markets will react to
the GOR's decision to intervene more directly by supporting
KIT Finance's rescue. Many industry insiders have been
calling for just such intervention but others have supported
Kudrin's cautious approach and have argued that the liquidity
injections simply need time to take effect. We may know more
tomorrow but this crisis is likely to persist for some time
and we will address in more detail septel the evolving tools
available to the GOR with which to manage the situation. End
Comment.
BEYRLE