DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION TEST DRIVES UNITY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002550

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL RS
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION TEST DRIVES UNITY,
OPPOSITION TO WAR

Classified By: Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wel
ls. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Liberal opposition party SPS, former PM
Kasyanov, and the unregistered Republican Party have
attempted to increase cooperation through joint statements,
public rallies, and opposition to the conduct of the war
against Georgia. Although Yabloko did not sign the joint
statement, some of its leaders have appeared publicly with
other opposition parties at rallies to call for increased
personal and press freedoms. Former PM Kasyanov and Yabloko
leader Sergey Mitrokhin have both called Russia's conduct
against Georgia "disproportionate," introducing a new point
of division with the Kremlin and with the large percentage of
Russians who support the war. Despite the rhetoric, the
opposition remains far from united and will find little
public traction in opposing a war that remains overwhelmingly
popular among Russian voters. End Summary.

A New Attempt at Opposition Unity
--------------


2. (SBU) On August 19, three opposition parties issued a
joint statement on uniting efforts to win votes in the
October regional and municipal elections. The Union of Right
Forces (SPS),along with unregistered Russian People's
Democratic Union (RNDS) and the Republican Party, released
the statement on the seventeenth anniversary of the 1991 coup
attempt by Communist hard-liners. According to press
reports, Yabloko did not sign the statement because its
leadership did not believe the statement adequately addressed
issues related to criminality and corruption in the 1990s.


3. (SBU) On August 21, Yabloko leader Sergey Mitrokhin held
a press conference to explain Yabloko's role in the
opposition yet outside the new alliance. Mitrokhin explained
that "a new political course" and "a return to democracy are
vital" amid "the unprecedented widespread degradation of
Russia's social sphere." According to Mitrokhin, Yabloko
offers "solutions and leadership" while the current Russian
government offers only nationalism as a policy. Kasyanov's
advisor, Oleg Buklemishev, told us that Mitrokhin continued
to have to adhere to former party chief Grigoriy Yavlinskiy's
status quo dictates -- "Mitrokhin plays Medvedev to
Yavlinskiy's Putin."


4. (SBU) On August 22, on the occasion of Russian National
Flag Day, several democratic opposition groups held a protest
adjacent to the White House in Moscow. Approximately 500
attendees heard speeches from party leaders and
intellectuals, who generally spoke in broad terms in favor of
press and political freedoms and against corruption and
poverty. Boris Nemtsov of SPS called for an end to
government corruption. Vladimir Ryzhkov of the Republican
Party decried the insufficient benefits that average Russians
have received as a result of Russia's strong economic growth.
Ryzhkov calculated that Prime Minister Putin "equals
inflation plus corruption." Yabloko's Ilya Yashin lamented
that in nine years Russia had moved from Bolshevists and
Chekists to the Putin regime. For this reason, he noted,
Russians should remember the 1991 coup attempt as the point
when citizens stood for their freedom. Speakers repeatedly
raised a photograph from 1991 of the crowd that gathered as
the coup failed, using it as a rallying cry for Russians to
restart their pursuit of democracy.

Opposition's Anti-War Sentiment Grows
--------------


5. (SBU) Some opposition leaders have been outspoken in
their opposition to Russia's conduct of war against Georgia.
Former PM Kasyanov made public statements condemning the
"disproportionate" use of force against Georgia, while
maintaining that Georgian President Saakashvili acted
unwisely in provoking a Russian response. During the August
22 protest rally, human rights activist Gleb Yakunin spoke
against Russia's military actions. "We have a tragedy" that
will prove to be a "big mistake" when, he predicted, Georgia
and Ukraine are admitted to NATO as a result of the conflict.
During his August 21 press conference, Mitrokhin discussed
the "disproportionate" actions by Russia in South Ossetia.
Lev Ponomarev, head of the All Russia Movement for Human
Rights, organized an opposition anti-war rally that took
place on August 25 in Moscow.


6. (C) Comment: It is unlikely this most recent attempt at
cooperation will amount to more than rhetoric leading up to
October's regional and municipal elections. Yabloko's
insistence on first "clearing the air" from the 1990s does
not bode well for opposition unity, and these liberal

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opposition remnants are swimming upstream by opposing a war
with Georgia that is overwhelmingly popular among Russians.
End Comment.
BEYRLE