TFGG01: RUSSIA REACTS STRONGLY TO NAC STATEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002507 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018 TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL MARR RS GE SUBJECT: TFGG01: RUSSIA REACTS STRONGLY TO NAC STATEMENT ON GEORGIA Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Eric S. Rubin - Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Russia strongly condemned the North Atlantic Council's August 19 statement on the conflict in Georgia, and said NATO Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin would be returning to Moscow for consultations on the future of NATO-Russian relations. In addition, the creation of a NATO-Georgia Commission roused suspicion in Moscow about the Alliance's intention to provide additional military assistance to Tbilisi. Both FM Lavrov and the MFA NATO office confirmed that measures would be taken to limit Russia's partnership with NATO, while several sources claimed Russia would reduce or sever its military cooperation with the Alliance. According to press reports, the remaining military projects on this year's NATO-Russia Council Work Plan, including joint military exercises, could be among the first areas of cooperation to suffer. End Summary. -------------- Official MFA Reaction to NAC Statement Severe -------------- ¶2. (U) FM Lavrov reacted sharply to the North Atlantic Council's statement on the conflict in Georgia, and stated that GOR would review its future relationship with NATO during Ambassador Dmitriy Rogozin's consultations in Moscow this weekend. Lavrov called the NAC's statement "biased, subjective, and without any mention of how this all began and who instigated the aggression." Criticizing the Alliance for supporting the "criminal regime" in Georgia, Lavrov claimed NATO had allowed Saakashvili to influence decision-making in Brussels. He alleged that the Georgian President "commanded the developed democracies in NATO to fulfill his own ambitions." Regarding MAP for Georgia, the Foreign Minister remarked, "I cannot call it anything other than anti-Russian aspirations, directed in support of an aggressive regime." -------------- Consequences for the NATO-Russia Relationship -------------- ¶3. (C) MFA NATO Division Chief Andrey Rudenko told PolOff that the Alliance had decided business would not go on as usual, not Russia. (Note: FM Lavrov claimed Russia concluded a week ago that its relationship with NATO would not be "business as usual." End Note.) He said Moscow had taken the Alliance's statement very seriously, did not opt for this approach, and lamented the possible fall-out from the NAC's hard line. Rudenko insinuated that Russia would follow NATO's lead, making decisions about future cooperation that correspond in nature and severity to decisions taken by the Alliance. On the other hand, he acknowledged that Russia would have to take action itself. Rudenko expected that Ambassador Rogozin would discuss the full scale of the NATO-Russia relationship with the Russian leadership, and that the interagency would analyze all NATO-Russia Council (NRC) projects. ¶4. (C) When asked which particular NRC projects might suffer, Rudenko could not make any predictions, but expressed his personal hope that cooperation on security issues, such as the Transit Agreement permitting the transit of non-military equipment to ISAF through Russian territory, would remain intact. Ambassador Rogozin also commented to the press that cooperation with Afghanistan should not be affected. According to Rudenko, the Transit Agreement was "a flagship project for NRC practical cooperation that helps us to fight a threat affecting Russia and the countries in the region, as well as NATO." Yet, Rudenko chastised Allies for thinking they were punishing Russia by suspending cooperation in certain areas. Cooperation, he claimed, did not only benefit Russia, but the Alliance as well, pointing to Russian assistance in Operation Active Endeavor as an example of Russia's desire to assist NATO even on missions outside the framework of the NATO-Russia Council. Moscow did not view NATO's threats to suspend cooperation with Russia as a punishment, adding, "We can live without it." ¶5. (C) Rudenko said the MFA would be paying close attention to the newly established NATO-Georgia Commission (NGC). In principal, he found no objections to the creation of the NGC, noting that Russia also had a special institution for cooperation - the NRC. However, he expressed concern that the Alliance would use the NGC to station military forces and MOSCOW 00002507 002 OF 002 infrastructure in Georgia. He brought up FM Lavrov's assertion that NATO bore responsibility for the violence in Georgia by providing Saakashvili with weapons. Turning to Georgia's MAP aspirations, Rudenko accused the Georgian leadership of imposing its problems with Russia on NATO. He echoed the well-known Russian argument that MAP for Georgia would be a serious mistake for NATO and the NATO-Russia relationship. -------------- Will GOR Stop Military Cooperation with NATO? -------------- ¶6. (C) At an August 20 press conference, Deputy Director of the Russian General Staff Anatoliy Nogovitsyn warned that NATO's "peacekeeping assistance" to Georgia, including through the NATO-Georgia Commission, would allow the Alliance to arm Tbilisi and provide it with the means for "another blitzkrieg." Perhaps related to this assessment, reports are circulating that GOR will stop military cooperation with NATO. Allegedly, MOD called the Norwegian, Spanish, and Canadian Embassies in Moscow to inform them of this decision. MFA NATO Division Chief Rudenko acknowledged he had read about the phone call to the Norwegians on the internet, but could not confirm if the reports were true, adding, "This is all news to me." He noted that no official announcements have been issued, and as far as he was aware, no decisions had been taken or will be taken until Ambassador Rogozin returns to Moscow for consultations. DFM Aleksandr Grushko confirmed to the press that Russia would assess its military cooperation with NATO, but did not say if GOR had already made a decision. However, Interfax cited an "informed military source in Moscow," who claimed Russia would cancel the remaining 10 or so military projects on this year's NATO-Russia Council Work Plan, including joint military exercises. Reuters also reported this account, citing an official in the Norwegian Ministry of Defense. French and British sources also confirmed that MOD told them Russia would temporarily suspend its military cooperation with NATO for the remainder of 2008, but bilateral military programs with individual NATO Allies would continue. BEYRLE