TFGG01: MIXED SIGNALS ON RUSSIAN TROOP WITHDRAWAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002496

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS GG
SUBJECT: TFGG01: MIXED SIGNALS ON RUSSIAN TROOP WITHDRAWAL

Classified By: PolCouns Alice Wells: Reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary. Russia continues to send mixed signals on
when Russian troops will withdraw from Georgia, as well as
the size of the peacekeeping force it expects to leave behind
in South Ossetia and in the security zone located in Georgia
proper. Despite Medvedev's promises to withdraw Russian
troops starting August 18, later revised to a withdrawal by
August 22, the removal of troops has only just begun, raising
some questions regarding Medvedev's standing within
harder-line GOR circles. While Medvedev first called for a
stronger role for the OSCE mission in South Ossetia, Russia
is now only willing to allow OSCE monitors into a buffer zone
in Georgia, abutting South Ossetia, and only in order to
monitor Georgian activity. Russia has ruled out EU monitors
in South Ossetia, purportedly due to objections of local
authorities. End Summary.

Did Russian Troops Begin Withdrawal?
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2. (U) Statements made by the Russian leadership have sent
confusing signals on the pace and scope of the Russian
withdrawal under the 6-Point Plan. President Medvedev had
originally announced in an August 17 phone conversation with
French President Sarkozy that Russia would begin on August 18
the pullout of its troops, which had been sent to reinforce
the Russian peacekeepers, to the security area agreed upon by
the Joint Control Commission (JCC) in 1999. Without
explicitly linking the two issues, during that call Medvedev
also called upon the Georgian side to return its military
units to their home bases.


3. (U) On August 18, an MFA statement confirmed that August
18 was the date for the beginning of the troop withdrawal,
but specified that "the speed of our steps will depend on how
conscientiously Tbilisi will fulfill that which is demanded
of it."


4. (U) In his August 18 press conference, General Anatoliy
Nogovitsyn, Deputy Chief of General Staff, clarified that
President Medvedev in his August 17 phone call with Medvedev
had only spoken of a "pullback" of forces, as opposed to a
pullout. Troops would not be "withdrawn" from the area, he
stated. Nogovitsyn also confirmed that Russian armed forces
would erect a permanent base on South Ossetian soil, if South
Ossetian authorities were to make such a request. He noted
that this would be a political, not military, decision.


5. (U) On August 19, Medvedev, in a second telephone call
with Sarkozy, asserted Russia was withdrawing its troops from
Georgia, and that by August 22 some of the peacekeepers would
be pulled into the provisional security zone as delineated by
the 1999 JCC decision. Medvedev noted that by August 22,
checkpoints and accommodation facilities would be ready for
the peacekeepers. The troops sent to support the
peacekeepers would relocate to South Ossetia or Russia,
Medvedev told Sarkozy, with the Kremlin statement not
specifying the size of the contingent it intended to leave
inside South Ossetia.


6. (U) In an August 19 press conference, Nogovitsyn said
Russia "continued" to pull out its forces from Georgian
territory, but accused Georgia of not withdrawing its forces
from the conflict zone. Up to this point, there was no
outside confirmation that a withdrawal was actually happening.


7. (U) Nogovitsyn in his August 20 press conference
elaborated that two lines of Russian military posts for 272
peacekeepers would be erected in a "security zone." Eight
posts would be at the edge of this "buffer zone" in Georgia,
10 along the administrative border of South Ossetia. The
security zone would follow the administrative border between
South Ossetia and Georgia proper, abutting South Ossetia from
the Georgian side. Nogovitsyn claimed Russian forces had not
violated any agreements, and that the "buffer zone" was part
of the Russian side's area of responsibility. He clarified
that Gori was not part of the buffer zone. An unnamed MOD
source noted that the total number of troops remaining in
Georgia, including South Ossetia, would therefore exceed the
original number of peacekeepers (given in the press as 588 at
the time of the outbreak of the conflict) by "several times,"
and include tanks and artillery.


8. (U) Russian infantry commander Colonel Konashenkov
announced August 20 that the first troops would begin
withdrawing from Gori. His only explanation for the delay
was that it always takes longer to withdraw troops than to
insert them into an area. An unnamed lieutenant colonel
attached to the 58th Army told Reuters that day that troops
had begun to withdraw from Gori in the direction of

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Vladikavkaz via Tskhinvali, including six APCs, three T-90
tanks, and a self-propelled missile launcher.


9. (U) On August 21, Interfax announced that a convoy of
more than 40 Russian military vehicles had passed through
Tskhinvali en route for the Russian republic of North
Ossetia. The MOD said the units belonged to the 58th Army.

Russia develops it position on OSCE monitors
--------------


10. (U) On August 16, President Medvedev in a phone call
with Finnish President Halonen advocated a stronger role for
the OSCE mission in South Ossetia and "stressed the readiness
of the Russian side for close interaction" with the mission.


11. (U) On August 18, the MFA in its statement repeated
Russia's support for an increase in OSCE monitors, but called
for that contingent to monitor Georgian "provocative actions."


12. (U) The MFA published a statement on August 19 referring
to the OSCE decision to increase the number of OSCE monitors
to 100, saying that 20 would begin their work "in the nearest
future, in regions of Georgia adjacent to South Ossetia."
Their task would be to monitor the "Georgian authorities'
fulfillment of all their obligations," including the return
of Georgian troops to their bases.


13. (U) On August 20, the Russian OSCE PermRep Voronkov told
Russian newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta that Russia was ready to
approve monitors in the security zone, carefully delimiting
the zone as territory that abuts South Ossetia from the
Georgian side. The modality of this force's deployment would
have to be worked out carefully, he noted. Voronkov
speculated that the OSCE contingent could comprise 10-20
persons. He warned that absent a careful mandate, more
monitors could only complicate the effort. He asserted that
only OSCE monitors could operate in the security zone, noting
that Russia was a member of the OSCE, but not of other
organizations intent on sending monitors, such as the EU.
Voronkov said that according to international law, EU
observers could only enter South Ossetia with consent from
local authorities. This consent would not be forthcoming, as
South Ossetian officials had several times declared that they
"didn't want to see any other observers except for Russian
peacekeepers."

Comment
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14. (C) Russia is intent on undertaking this withdrawal on
its own terms and it's similarly hard-line approach on the
dispatch and mandate of the OSCE MMO's reflects its strategy
of remaining the "guarantor" of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Some questions have been raised by the seemingly tardy
implementations of Medvedev's injunction for an August 22
withdrawal, which -- if ignored or easily superceded -- would
reinforce a "weak" President to a strong "silovik" circle
around Putin. Putin has been silent on the withdrawal. End
Comment.
BEYRLE