TFGG01: RUSSIA MAINTAINING HARD LINE, FOCUSING ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002387

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR GG RS
SUBJECT: TFGG01: RUSSIA MAINTAINING HARD LINE, FOCUSING ON
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

Classified By: Acting DCM Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Russian officials continued their hard line
towards Georgia August 13, repeating demands for a
legally-binding non-use of FORCE agreement between Georgia
and the two zones of conflict, reiterating that Georgian
peacekeepers could not be allowed to return to South Ossetia
and Abkhazia, and insisting that Georgia be made to pay for
the rebuilding of South Ossetia. MOD said that Georgia was
continuing to fire on Russian forces and denied reports that
Russian tanks were still in Gori. They released Russian
casualty figures, claiming 74 Russian peacekeepers killed,
171 wounded, and 19 missing. Public support remained strong,
with Public Chamber members denouncing Saakashvili but
calling for resumption of contacts and dialogue between the
Russian and Georgian people. Much attention was focused on
humanitarian assistance, though some began to question the
scale of FORCE used by Russia. End summary.

MFA, MOD Maintain Hard Line
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2. (U) FM Lavrov, in a press conference August 13, reiterated
Moscow's insistence on a legally-binding non-use of FORCE
agreement between Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, and
made clear Russian "peacekeepers" would stay in the two
conflict zones, insisting that Georgian peacekeepers could
not return. He demanded that Georgia pay for the rebuilding
of South Ossetia, while highlighting that Russia would
appropriate 10 billion rubles (approx. USD475 million) for
reconstruction aid in 2009.


3. (U) An MFA Statement reiterated legal justifications for
the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia, citing
1994, 1995 and 2003 CIS agreements, and said Georgia's
demands to end the CIS peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia,
"looked like nothing other than an attempt to create the
foundation for a new armed escapade, this time against
Abkhazia."


4. (U) At a RIA Novosti press conference August 13, Russian
Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Anatoliy Nogovitsyn
claimed that although Georgian forces had begun to withdraw
its troops out of South Ossetia towards Tbilisi, Georgian
aggression continued on numerous fronts. In South Ossetia,
he accused Georgian snipers of continuing to fire on Russian
peacekeeping forces. Off the coast of Abkhazia, Nogovitsyn
alleged that late August 12 Georgian patrol boats attacked a
Russian Black Sea Fleet warship; in response, the Russian
ship fired a warning shot and the Georgians returned to the
port of Poti. As for the situation in Gori, Novogitsyn
called it a "mystery." He affirmed that Georgian troops were
no longer in the city, but neither were Russian tanks, as the
Georgians allege. Russia also claimed that Georgia had
planned to launch a massive invasion of Abkhazia ("Tskhinvali
two, but a much more serious kind"),having amassed one and a
half brigades in the direction of the Gali District and four
battalions in the direction of Sukhumi. In the end, the
actions of the Black Sea Fleet ships and an increase in
Russian peacekeeping contingents helped to disrupt Tbilisi's
plans and "cool down the hotheads in the Georgian
government." Moreover, in the Kodori Valley Georgian troops
voluntarily turned over more than 700 weapons, the majority
of which were foreign made.


5. (U) According to Nogovitsyn, 74 Russian peacekeepers were
killed, 171 wounded, and 19 missing. He said Russia had
proposed that Moscow and Tbilisi exchange a list of dead and
captured soldiers and peacekeepers.

Public Chamber Denounces Saakashvili, Calls for Dialogue
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6. (U) Government officials, prominent commentators, pundits,
and the public, continued to say that the GOR could not have
watched and done nothing as Georgia "attacked South Ossetia"
and "destroyed Tskhinvali." At a meeting of the Public
Chamber called ostensibly to report to DFM Karasin (who did
not show up),members condemned the Georgian leadership.
Public Chamber Secretary Leonid Roshal said he had just
returned from the region and he had reported to President
Medvedev and PM Putin that he could "confirm acts of
genocide." Academician Yevgeniy Velikhov echoed the GOR's
call to condemn and investigate the "criminal actions
perpetrated by Saakashvili." Interestingly, legal expert

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Anatoliy Kucherena said Moscow could not refer Saakashvili to
the International Court of Justice in the Hague, because
Russia had not ratified the international agreements on it
and therefore could not appeal to the Court.


7. (U) While calling for punishment of Saakashvili, most
members also called for a resumption of contacts and dialogue
between the Russian and Georgian people. Duma Deputy Sergey
Markov said there were over 1,000,000 ethnic Georgians living
in Russia and it was essential to restore contacts with
Georgian public society. Alleging that Georgian leaders had
cut off Russian news programs and internet sites in Georgia,
Russia needed to find another way to communicate.


8. (U) Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of the Politica
Foundation, laid out the elements he would prepare for the
Chamber to present to the Russian leadership:
-- Condemning Georgia's "criminal deeds," which had led to
terrible consequences;
-- Calling for a day of mourning in all affected countries;
-- Placing a high value on the activities of Russian
servicemen;
-- Providing humanitarian assistance to all victims;
-- Getting Russian society to condemn the military crimes;
-- Establishing a Public Chamber commission to travel to the
conflict zone to provide aid to servicemen and victims; and
-- Maintaining a dialogue with Georgian citizens, including
those living in Russia.

"Cracks in Support?"
--------------


9. (C) While the majority of the public continues to support
the GOR's actions, some are beginning to question the amount
of FORCE used by Russia. A Levada poll showed that while
over 50 percent of respondents supported Russian troops'
actions in South Ossetia, 36 percent were against. Anatoliy
Tsyganok, a military expert for the Center for Military
Prognosis and a member of the Civilian Council, an advisory
board for the Ministry of Defense, told us he could not
understand why the Russian Army had to be dragged into such a
widespread conflict in the first place. Although Tsyganok on
prior occasions had condemned Georgia's aggression, he
implied that the massive mobilization of the Russian Armed
Forces was unnecessary. In fact, Russian peacekeepers should
have been able to manage the crisis in South Ossetia
themselves. He also decried Russia's use of heavy bombers in
massive AIR campaigns against Georgian targets. Using these
planes was a sign of Russia's deplorable military technology,
and Tsyganok refuted Russian officials' claims that they were
used for intelligence purposes.
RUBIN