TFGG01: RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT SITREP 4

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 002351 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR GG RS SUBJECT: TFGG01: RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT SITREP 4 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Eric S. Rubin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. An American journalist was reported injured in South Ossetia and taken to North Ossetia for medical treatment. Post is working to contact him. PM Putin said Russia would continue its mission to "its logical end," and lashed out at the West, and the U.S. in particular, for supporting Georgia, including by transporting Georgian forces from Iraq. The MFA confirmed that the French and Finnish FMs would meet with FM Lavrov the evening of August 11. An MOD official denied that Russia had flown 50 planes in a bombing raid in Georgia the night of August 10, but acknowledged that Russia was targeting radar sites belonging to the intelligence services of "a hostile party," and confirmed that the Russian Air Force was carrying out strikes against Georgia's airspace reconnaisance system and its air force radars. Earlier in the morning the MOD confirmed that Russia had moved 9,000 paratroopers and 350 armoured vehicles into the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone, and had issued an ultimatum to the Georgian troops in the Upper Kodori valley. Russia condemned Ukraine for arming Georgia and claimed ships from the Black Sea Fleet were merely patrolling the waters near the Abkhaz coast in order to guarantee the safety of Russian citizens in the region; provide support to the Russian peacekeeping mission in the event of an attack on the peacekeeping contingent; and provide humanitarian aid to citizens in the conflict zone. Political parties, experts, and press continued to be overwhelmingly behind Moscow's actions, with some increasingly blaming the U.S. for having supported Saakashvili. End summary. Injured American in Conflict Zone -------------- ¶2. (C) Russian press reported the evening of August 10 that an American journalist with the newspaper The Messenger was injured in South Ossetia. He was treated by Russian armed forces and brought to Vladikavkaz for further medical care. The Consular Section learned that he is 22 year-old Winston Featherly-Bean, and has been seeking to contact him. ConOff also spoke with three American citizen journalists who were briefly detained by FSB on Saturday in Vladikavkaz. Two work for the Moscow Times and one, a French-American dual-national, works for a German news bureau. The FSB released the reporters after questioning. Official Statements -------------- ¶3. (U) PM Putin said Russia would carry out its "peacekeeping mission through to its logical end" following a Government Presidium meeting August 11. He claimed Russia had warned the West that Georgia was preparing for conflict but "nobody was listening." He added that Russia would still try to establish working relations with all the parties, including Georgia." Putin also called Western support for Georgia "cynical," chastising the U.S. for transferring Georgian troops from Iraq to the conflict zone on U.S. planes. Medvedev was also quoted as expressing concern over the possibility that Russian citizens could be used as human shields in Georgia. ¶4. (U) The MFA issued short statements on FM Lavrov's conversations with German FM Steinmeier and the Turkish FM, merely saying Lavrov reiterated Russia's insistence that Georgia pull out its forces and issue a non-use of force pledge. The MFA noted that Lavrov would meet with French and Finnish FMs the evening of August 11, following their visit to Tbilisi in the morning. Press reported that DFM Karasin had criticized the statements of the Baltics and Poland calling on the international community to support Georgia. Karasin called their statements "absolutely illogical," and said "the people who are making irresponsible criminal decisions should be rebuffed by the international community." In another statement, Karasin accused the Western media of providing "politically biased" reporting. ¶5. (U) Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee Vasiliy Likhachyov called for an emergency combined session of the Duma and the Federation Council to work out a consolidated resolution on current developments in South Ossetia. Media noted that while there had not been an order to report back to work from vacation, many in the Russian government had returned to Moscow voluntarily, including members of the Russian State Duma and Federation Council. MOSCOW 00002351 002 OF 003 Leadership Debate -------------- ¶6. (C) Press reported that Medvedev and Putin had divided up responsibility for Southern Ossetia, with Putin being responsible for Russia's humanitarian response, and Medvedev for military matters relating to the conflict, including the movement of military forces and the types of arms they would use. Expert commentators nonetheless believed the power calculus had shifted to Putin, despite Medvedev's ostensible responsibility for conduct of the war. Targets in Georgia -------------- ¶7. (U) In a RIA Novosti press conference, Russian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Anatoliy Nogovitsyn denied that Russia was targeting or would target the Tbilisi airport. He did, however, acknowledge that Russia was targeting radar sites belonging to the intelligence services of "a hostile party," and confirmed that the Russian Air Force was carrying out strikes against Georgia's airspace reconnaisance system and its air force radars. Nogovitsyn also denied Georgian allegations that Russia conducted an overnight bombing mission inside Georgia using fifty airplanes. Ukraine/Black Sea Fleet -------------- ¶8. (U) The MFA announced that the deployment of its Black Sea Fleet ships to the waters near Abkhazia was not an aggressive maneuver. According to the MFA, "Russia would authorize the use of force only in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and with the intent of realizing its inalienable right to self-defense." The MFA claimed its ships were patrolling the waters near the Abkhaz coast in order to guarantee the safety of Russian citizens in the region; provide support to the Russian peacekeeping mission in the event of an attack on the peacekeeping contingent; and provide humanitarian aid to citizens in the conflict zone. However, Russian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Nogovitsyn stated that patrolling the Abkhaz coast was necessary to establish a blockade in order to prevent arms transfers to Georgia by sea. ¶9. (U) The MFA also asserted that the agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the status and conditions of Russia's Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory did not grant Ukraine the right to dictate the terms of Russian ships' activity. (Note: Nogovitsyn claimed that Moscow had not officially received an announcement from Kyiv that Ukraine would seek to block the return of Russian ships to Sevastopol.) Russia also condemned Ukraine for arming Georgia; the MFA statement noted that Kiev should have thought twice about sending weapons to Tbilisi if it wanted to avoid being part of the conflict. South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity alleged that Ukraine provided T-72 tanks, MI-8 helicopters, and missiles to Georgia. Interfax reported that Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Eliseyev told them Kyiv would not review the possibility of providing military-technical assistance to Georgia now. ¶10. (C) Viktor Litovkin, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Independent Military Review, claimed Ukraine was simply showing solidarity for its fellow NATO prospective member, and did not have the means to enforce a blockade at Sevastopol. Political Parties Support Kremlin -------------- ¶11. (U) All of Russia's main political parties, except for the most liberal Union of Right Forces (SPS),supported the GOR's actions in South Ossetia. Pro-Kremlin Parties - United Russia, A Just Russia, and Civic Force - were firmly on the Government's side. Federation Council International Affairs Committee Chairman Mikhail Margelov said that the civilian deaths in South Ossetia fell under the international definition of "genocide," and he supported Human Rights Ombudsman Lukin's call for an international tribunal. Opposition party Yabloko issued a statement saying that it had "reason to assume that in this situation the President of Russia had no other option but to resort to force to diminish the number of victims of an uncontrolled conflict." MOSCOW 00002351 003 OF 003 ¶12. (U) The Communists (KPRF) and LDPR went further than the Kremlin, with Communist Party Chairman Zyuganov calling for Russia to first recognize independent South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and then incorporate them into Russia, and LDPR leader Zhirinovskiy demanding all-out war against "Georgian fascists." Zyuganov said that Russia should seize on the Kosovo precedent set by the West. He said that U.S. and EU calls for a ceasefire would give shelter to Saakashvili and thus make the U.S. and EU accomplices to war crimes. He claimed that failures of Russian leadership had invited Georgia's adventurism, but that the Russian military response has been necessary and appropriate. ¶13. (U) The only party not to support the GOR was the Union of Right Forces (SPS),but they did not say that Russia had been unjustified, instead merely saying that it had become clear that military action was inevitable, but announcing that "any war is a crime and all sides of a conflict bear responsibility for it." SPS called the conflicting sides to come back to diplomacy to settle the conflict, and if they could not agree, the international community should be brought in. Experts' Views/U.S. Role -------------- ¶14. (C) Experts continue to say Russia had no choice but to intervene, given Georgia's aggression and the humanitarian situation. While the experts continue to believe Russia will not move militarily on Tbilisi and Georgia proper, they do not entirely discount the possibility. Some claim the U.S. was behind Georgia's actions and characterize the conflict as "a clash between Russia and the U.S.", but most focus more on U.S. support for Saakashvili and U.S. arming and equipping of Georgian forces. Litovkin told us "we don't blame the US, except for your support of a crazy man like Saakashvili." They increasingly link the situation to the West's actions in Kosovo in 1999, citing justification for a "proportionate response" to a humanitarian crisis. ¶15. (C) The experts generally believe U.S.-Russian relations will be damaged, but how deep the divide goes will depend on the outcome of the crisis. Foundation for Public Opinion Senior Analyst Lyudmila Presnyakova told us that Russians believe all Georgian initiatives begin with the United States, including the fighting in South Ossetia. She added that upcoming public opinion polls regarding US-Russia relations will probably reflect a downward slide. Blogs -------------- ¶16. (U) A number of bloggers are calling for censorship against anti-Russian postings in their own fora. In an open letter to the SUP-Frabrik, the Russian company that owns one of Russia's largest internet fora Live Journal, bloggers stated that the "laws of peacetime do not apply to the current situation," and called for the company to block anti-Russian material. Many contributors called Reuters photos of destroyed building in the Georgian city of Gori "fabricated" and demanded their removal. A representative of SUP-Frabrik countered the call for censorship, telling Echo Moskviy that according to the logic of those calling for censorship, "it would be necessary to begin by forbidding anti-American statements" on the site, and stressed that no amount of requests could make the company curtail the free expression of its users. Humanitarian Update -------------- ¶17. (C) Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations stated that over 14,000 people in North Ossetia had fled the violence in South Ossetia. Russia sent a convoy with two hospitals with Dr's, Nurses , medicines, equipment, etc. and a camp to house 500 people to Tskhinvali. Aleksandr Cherkassov, the acting head of The Memorial Human Rights Group's Moscow office, told us the group would issue a second statement as early as August 11 calling for international observers in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He added that in response for calls by Russian Federation Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin for the creation of a special international war crimes tribunal for South Ossetia, the group would ask the international community to create such a tribunal for the entire Caucasus, including Ingushetia and Chechnya. RUBIN