TFGG01: RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT SITREP 4

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 002351

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR GG RS
SUBJECT: TFGG01: RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT SITREP 4

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Eric S. Rubin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. An American journalist was reported injured
in South Ossetia and taken to North Ossetia for medical
treatment. Post is working to contact him. PM Putin said
Russia would continue its mission to "its logical end," and
lashed out at the West, and the U.S. in particular, for
supporting Georgia, including by transporting Georgian forces
from Iraq. The MFA confirmed that the French and Finnish FMs
would meet with FM Lavrov the evening of August 11. An MOD
official denied that Russia had flown 50 planes in a bombing
raid in Georgia the night of August 10, but acknowledged that
Russia was targeting radar sites belonging to the
intelligence services of "a hostile party," and confirmed
that the Russian Air Force was carrying out strikes against
Georgia's airspace reconnaisance system and its air force
radars. Earlier in the morning the MOD confirmed that Russia
had moved 9,000 paratroopers and 350 armoured vehicles into
the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone, and had issued an
ultimatum to the Georgian troops in the Upper Kodori valley.
Russia condemned Ukraine for arming Georgia and claimed ships
from the Black Sea Fleet were merely patrolling the waters
near the Abkhaz coast in order to guarantee the safety of
Russian citizens in the region; provide support to the
Russian peacekeeping mission in the event of an attack on the
peacekeeping contingent; and provide humanitarian aid to
citizens in the conflict zone. Political parties, experts,
and press continued to be overwhelmingly behind Moscow's
actions, with some increasingly blaming the U.S. for having
supported Saakashvili. End summary.

Injured American in Conflict Zone
--------------


2. (C) Russian press reported the evening of August 10 that
an American journalist with the newspaper The Messenger was
injured in South Ossetia. He was treated by Russian armed
forces and brought to Vladikavkaz for further medical care.
The Consular Section learned that he is 22 year-old Winston
Featherly-Bean, and has been seeking to contact him. ConOff
also spoke with three American citizen journalists who were
briefly detained by FSB on Saturday in Vladikavkaz. Two work
for the Moscow Times and one, a French-American
dual-national, works for a German news bureau. The FSB
released the reporters after questioning.

Official Statements
--------------


3. (U) PM Putin said Russia would carry out its "peacekeeping
mission through to its logical end" following a Government
Presidium meeting August 11. He claimed Russia had warned
the West that Georgia was preparing for conflict but "nobody
was listening." He added that Russia would still try to
establish working relations with all the parties, including
Georgia." Putin also called Western support for Georgia
"cynical," chastising the U.S. for transferring Georgian
troops from Iraq to the conflict zone on U.S. planes.
Medvedev was also quoted as expressing concern over the
possibility that Russian citizens could be used as human
shields in Georgia.


4. (U) The MFA issued short statements on FM Lavrov's
conversations with German FM Steinmeier and the Turkish FM,
merely saying Lavrov reiterated Russia's insistence that
Georgia pull out its forces and issue a non-use of force
pledge. The MFA noted that Lavrov would meet with French and
Finnish FMs the evening of August 11, following their visit
to Tbilisi in the morning. Press reported that DFM Karasin
had criticized the statements of the Baltics and Poland
calling on the international community to support Georgia.
Karasin called their statements "absolutely illogical," and
said "the people who are making irresponsible criminal
decisions should be rebuffed by the international community."
In another statement, Karasin accused the Western media of
providing "politically biased" reporting.


5. (U) Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council's
International Affairs Committee Vasiliy Likhachyov called for
an emergency combined session of the Duma and the Federation
Council to work out a consolidated resolution on current
developments in South Ossetia. Media noted that while there
had not been an order to report back to work from vacation,
many in the Russian government had returned to Moscow
voluntarily, including members of the Russian State Duma and
Federation Council.

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Leadership Debate
--------------


6. (C) Press reported that Medvedev and Putin had divided up
responsibility for Southern Ossetia, with Putin being
responsible for Russia's humanitarian response, and Medvedev
for military matters relating to the conflict, including the
movement of military forces and the types of arms they would
use. Expert commentators nonetheless believed the power
calculus had shifted to Putin, despite Medvedev's ostensible
responsibility for conduct of the war.

Targets in Georgia
--------------


7. (U) In a RIA Novosti press conference, Russian Armed
Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Anatoliy Nogovitsyn denied that
Russia was targeting or would target the Tbilisi airport. He
did, however, acknowledge that Russia was targeting radar
sites belonging to the intelligence services of "a hostile
party," and confirmed that the Russian Air Force was carrying
out strikes against Georgia's airspace reconnaisance system
and its air force radars. Nogovitsyn also denied Georgian
allegations that Russia conducted an overnight bombing
mission inside Georgia using fifty airplanes.

Ukraine/Black Sea Fleet
--------------


8. (U) The MFA announced that the deployment of its Black
Sea Fleet ships to the waters near Abkhazia was not an
aggressive maneuver. According to the MFA, "Russia would
authorize the use of force only in accordance with Article 51
of the UN Charter and with the intent of realizing its
inalienable right to self-defense." The MFA claimed its ships
were patrolling the waters near the Abkhaz coast in order to
guarantee the safety of Russian citizens in the region;
provide support to the Russian peacekeeping mission in the
event of an attack on the peacekeeping contingent; and
provide humanitarian aid to citizens in the conflict zone.
However, Russian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff
Nogovitsyn stated that patrolling the Abkhaz coast was
necessary to establish a blockade in order to prevent arms
transfers to Georgia by sea.


9. (U) The MFA also asserted that the agreement between
Russia and Ukraine on the status and conditions of Russia's
Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory did not grant Ukraine
the right to dictate the terms of Russian ships' activity.
(Note: Nogovitsyn claimed that Moscow had not officially
received an announcement from Kyiv that Ukraine would seek to
block the return of Russian ships to Sevastopol.) Russia
also condemned Ukraine for arming Georgia; the MFA statement
noted that Kiev should have thought twice about sending
weapons to Tbilisi if it wanted to avoid being part of the
conflict. South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity alleged that
Ukraine provided T-72 tanks, MI-8 helicopters, and missiles
to Georgia. Interfax reported that Ukrainian Deputy Foreign
Minister Eliseyev told them Kyiv would not review the
possibility of providing military-technical assistance to
Georgia now.


10. (C) Viktor Litovkin, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the
Independent Military Review, claimed Ukraine was simply
showing solidarity for its fellow NATO prospective member,
and did not have the means to enforce a blockade at
Sevastopol.

Political Parties Support Kremlin
--------------


11. (U) All of Russia's main political parties, except for
the most liberal Union of Right Forces (SPS),supported the
GOR's actions in South Ossetia. Pro-Kremlin Parties - United
Russia, A Just Russia, and Civic Force - were firmly on the
Government's side. Federation Council International Affairs
Committee Chairman Mikhail Margelov said that the civilian
deaths in South Ossetia fell under the international
definition of "genocide," and he supported Human Rights
Ombudsman Lukin's call for an international tribunal.
Opposition party Yabloko issued a statement saying that it
had "reason to assume that in this situation the President of
Russia had no other option but to resort to force to diminish
the number of victims of an uncontrolled conflict."


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12. (U) The Communists (KPRF) and LDPR went further than the
Kremlin, with Communist Party Chairman Zyuganov calling for
Russia to first recognize independent South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, and then incorporate them into Russia, and LDPR
leader Zhirinovskiy demanding all-out war against "Georgian
fascists." Zyuganov said that Russia should seize on the
Kosovo precedent set by the West. He said that U.S. and EU
calls for a ceasefire would give shelter to Saakashvili and
thus make the U.S. and EU accomplices to war crimes. He
claimed that failures of Russian leadership had invited
Georgia's adventurism, but that the Russian military response
has been necessary and appropriate.


13. (U) The only party not to support the GOR was the Union
of Right Forces (SPS),but they did not say that Russia had
been unjustified, instead merely saying that it had become
clear that military action was inevitable, but announcing
that "any war is a crime and all sides of a conflict bear
responsibility for it." SPS called the conflicting sides to
come back to diplomacy to settle the conflict, and if they
could not agree, the international community should be
brought in.

Experts' Views/U.S. Role
--------------


14. (C) Experts continue to say Russia had no choice but to
intervene, given Georgia's aggression and the humanitarian
situation. While the experts continue to believe Russia will
not move militarily on Tbilisi and Georgia proper, they do
not entirely discount the possibility. Some claim the U.S.
was behind Georgia's actions and characterize the conflict as
"a clash between Russia and the U.S.", but most focus more on
U.S. support for Saakashvili and U.S. arming and equipping of
Georgian forces. Litovkin told us "we don't blame the US,
except for your support of a crazy man like Saakashvili."
They increasingly link the situation to the West's actions in
Kosovo in 1999, citing justification for a "proportionate
response" to a humanitarian crisis.


15. (C) The experts generally believe U.S.-Russian relations
will be damaged, but how deep the divide goes will depend on
the outcome of the crisis. Foundation for Public Opinion
Senior Analyst Lyudmila Presnyakova told us that Russians
believe all Georgian initiatives begin with the United
States, including the fighting in South Ossetia. She added
that upcoming public opinion polls regarding US-Russia
relations will probably reflect a downward slide.

Blogs
--------------


16. (U) A number of bloggers are calling for censorship
against anti-Russian postings in their own fora. In an open
letter to the SUP-Frabrik, the Russian company that owns one
of Russia's largest internet fora Live Journal, bloggers
stated that the "laws of peacetime do not apply to the
current situation," and called for the company to block
anti-Russian material. Many contributors called Reuters
photos of destroyed building in the Georgian city of Gori
"fabricated" and demanded their removal. A representative of
SUP-Frabrik countered the call for censorship, telling Echo
Moskviy that according to the logic of those calling for
censorship, "it would be necessary to begin by forbidding
anti-American statements" on the site, and stressed that no
amount of requests could make the company curtail the free
expression of its users.

Humanitarian Update
--------------


17. (C) Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations stated that
over 14,000 people in North Ossetia had fled the violence in
South Ossetia. Russia sent a convoy with two hospitals with
Dr's, Nurses , medicines, equipment, etc. and a camp to house
500 people to Tskhinvali. Aleksandr Cherkassov, the acting
head of The Memorial Human Rights Group's Moscow office, told
us the group would issue a second statement as early as
August 11 calling for international observers in both South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. He added that in response for calls by
Russian Federation Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin for the creation
of a special international war crimes tribunal for South
Ossetia, the group would ask the international community to
create such a tribunal for the entire Caucasus, including
Ingushetia and Chechnya.
RUBIN