TFGGO1: RUSSIA-SOUTH OSSETIA SITREP 3 AUGUST 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002321

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR GG RS
SUBJECT: TFGGO1: RUSSIA-SOUTH OSSETIA SITREP 3 AUGUST 9

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Eric S. Rubin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Russian officials continued to deny that
Russia was waging war, claiming Russia was "performing a
peacekeeping mission," while Russian media reported the MOD
had confirmed that 2,000 more paratroopers would be sent to
South Ossetia. Reaction in Moscow to the conflict generally
supports the GOR's laying of blame on Georgia, with
demonstrations outside the U.S. and Georgian Embassies. The
MFA would not confirm that there had been Russian bombing of
civilian targets in Gori and Poti, and claimed the movement
of Black Sea Fleet ships to the coast of Abkhazia was simply
to "protect" Russian citizens (septel). In a statement, the
MFA lashed out at Ukraine, accusing it of "recklessly arming"
Georgia, thereby encouraging the Georgian leadership to carry
out "ethnic cleansing" in South Ossetia. European Commission
and French Charges delivered a demarche to Tarabrin (DFM
Karasin would not see them) calling for a cease-fire and the
restoration of calm. Tarabrin told them it was "too late to
call for calm." Many continued to raise questions whether
the U.S. had instigated Georgia to attack, and expressed
anger at U.S. military assistance to Tbilisi. Russian
airlines canceled flights to Georgia in response to an order
from the Ministry of Transport. Small demonstrations were
held outside the U.S. and Georgian Embassies. End summary.


2. (U) At a MOD press conference, Russian Armed Forces Deputy
Chief of Staff Col. General Anatoliy Nagovitsyn said Russia
was only carrying out "peacekeeping functions." He denied
that Russian planes had bombed Tbilisi, but refused to
respond to a question on whether Russia was bombing the port
of Poti. He confirmed that as of August 9, 12 Russian
peacekeepers had been killed, and 150 wounded. He also
confirmed that two Russian planes had been lost. Interfax
news agency later reported that three more peacekeepers had
been killed, bringing the number to 15. It also reported
about 50 Georgian soldiers had been killed and about 480
wounded.


3. (U) Russian media reported that an aide to the Russian
Ground Forces Commander had confirmed that over 2,000 more
Russian paratroopers were being sent to South Ossetia.
Moscow Rossiya TV cited Vladimir Ivanov, aide to the Joint
Peacekeeping Force, of saying that Russian troops were firing
only at "buildings, constructions, and positions" occupied by
Georgian forces, and that some of those forces were
voluntarily laying down arms.


4. (U) In a statement on its website, the MFA lashed out at
Ukraine, saying Kiev had "no moral right" to claim a role in
resolving the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. It accused
Ukraine of "recklessly arming the Georgian army to the
teeth," and by so doing had "directly encouraged the Georgian
leadership to intervene and to carry out ethnic cleansing in
South Ossetia."

Russia's Intentions
--------------


5. (C) The GOR continues to maintain it is merely protecting
its citizens and seeking a return to the status quo ante, but
its line has hardened (septel). According to European
colleagues, Tarabrin told them "you knew what our red lines
were, and you knew what the consequences would be. Those
lines have been crossed. It is too late now to call for
calm." He insisted the only thing Russia was seeking was an
immediate and complete withdrawal of Georgian troops from
South Ossetia.


6. (C) The MFA said the movement of elements of Russia's
Black Sea Fleet to the coast of Abkhazia near Ochamchire was
simply to protect Russian citizens, and to provide
humanitarian assistance. the Georgian Charge d'Affaires
confirmed they had received a diplomatic note informing them
of the deployment. Otherwise, the Georgian Embassy has had
no contact with the MFA.

7.(C) Experts said they did not believe Russia really wanted
to widen the conflict to include Abkhazia or
Tbilisi-controlled territory, but wanted to press Georgia to
return to negotiations. They stressed that one of Russia's
principal goals remained preventing Georgia from joining
NATO, and commented that it was unlikely the Alliance would
offer a Membership Action Plan, given the current situation.


8. (C) Experts told us they believed Russia must have
prepared for a conflict with Georgia, but had most likely not
expected it to occur when it did. The fact that Russian
tanks and troops moved in to South Ossetia so quickly
indicated they had been prepared to go in, and probably had
instructions that if Georgia attacked in force, they were
authorized to move in without further approval from Moscow.
However, the fact that Putin was in Beijing and Medvedev was
on a river cruise vacation signaled they had not expected the
conflict to happen when it did, and gave rise to a question
whether Saakashvili had chosen to take advantage of both
leaders being out of Moscow.

Anger, Questions, About U.S. Role
--------------


9. (C) Many are questioning whether the U.S. was behind
Georgia's actions. Noting that the U.S. had always managed
to pull Saakashvili back before, Trenin said the GOR was
questioning whether the failure to do so this time showed the
U.S. had given Saakashvili the green light to launch attacks.
They were wondering whether this was a first move in a U.S.
strategy to isolate or contain Russia, to get Russia mired in
a war in the Caucasus, or engaged in a new arms race, in an
effort to weaken or destroy Russia. Russia had seen the U.S.
publicly criticizing Russian actions and calling on Russia to
withdraw, but had not seen a corresponding response to
Georgia's actions. The GOR was waiting to see what America's
response - and intentions - would be.


10. (U) Several commentators said the U.S. shared
responsibility for the hostilities in the region because it
armed and trained the Georgian army. Saakashvili never would
have ordered an assault if he was not confident he had U.S.
and NATO support. "Georgia is using U.S. and NATO weapons to
kill Russian soldiers and peacekeepers," said Izvestia
Political Correspondent Dmitriy Litovkin, "and thus far has
done nothing to stop the killing." The U.S., he said, was
allowing Saakashvili to ethnically cleanse South Ossetia.
Duma Deputy Vladimir Vasiliev, who sits on the Duma's
Security Committee, has been widely quoted in the Russian
press accusing the State Department, in particular, of
providing Georgia with the political support and military
means to open fire on South Ossetia. Experts pointed to U.S.
instructors conducting exercises with the Georgian army in
the days before the violence as a clear sign that Washington
knew about Georgia's imminent South Ossetian operation.
Still others have castigated the U.S. and its East European
Allies and partners, particularly Ukraine, for supplying
Georgia with arms that are being used in the conflict. At
last week's MANPADS talks, General Buzhinskiy emphatically
made this point, and urged the U.S. to use its influence in
Eastern Europe to prevent further arms sales by NATO Allies
to Saakashvili.

Aeroflot and S7/Sibir Cancel Flights with Georgia
-------------- --------------


11. (U) In response to the Russian Transport Ministry's
August 8 order to cancel air traffic between Russia and
Georgia by midnight on August 9, two of Russia's leading
airlines announced their suspension of flights between the
two countries. Aeroflot announced suspension of its
Moscow-Tbilisi flights, which normally fly 6 times a week.
S7/Sibir canceled its Moscow-Tbilisi flights and also its
weekly flights to Kutaisi and Batumi. S7/Sibir also told
ITAR-TASS that it had received notice early August 9 from
Georgian aviation authorities to change its normal route over
Ossetia and instead fly via Azerbaijan.

Small Protests at U.S. and Georgian Embassies in Moscow
-------------- --------------


12. (SBU) Starting at 9:00 a.m. August 9, approximately 100
people gathered opposite the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to
protest the situation in South Ossetia and express their
displeasure with US support for Georgia. The protest was
well-manned by both riot and local police, and dispersed at
2:30 p.m. without incident. On August 8, about 300
protesters from Kremlin-backed youth groups and the Communist
Party gathered in front of the Georgian Embassy in Moscow in
support of South Ossetia, carrying signs telling Georgia to
"wake up and topple the vampire," referring to the Georgian
President. There were no reports of violence at the
protests.
RUBIN