TFGGO1: RUSSIA-SOUTH OSSETIA SITREP 3 AUGUST 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002321 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR GG RS SUBJECT: TFGGO1: RUSSIA-SOUTH OSSETIA SITREP 3 AUGUST 9 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Eric S. Rubin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Russian officials continued to deny that Russia was waging war, claiming Russia was "performing a peacekeeping mission," while Russian media reported the MOD had confirmed that 2,000 more paratroopers would be sent to South Ossetia. Reaction in Moscow to the conflict generally supports the GOR's laying of blame on Georgia, with demonstrations outside the U.S. and Georgian Embassies. The MFA would not confirm that there had been Russian bombing of civilian targets in Gori and Poti, and claimed the movement of Black Sea Fleet ships to the coast of Abkhazia was simply to "protect" Russian citizens (septel). In a statement, the MFA lashed out at Ukraine, accusing it of "recklessly arming" Georgia, thereby encouraging the Georgian leadership to carry out "ethnic cleansing" in South Ossetia. European Commission and French Charges delivered a demarche to Tarabrin (DFM Karasin would not see them) calling for a cease-fire and the restoration of calm. Tarabrin told them it was "too late to call for calm." Many continued to raise questions whether the U.S. had instigated Georgia to attack, and expressed anger at U.S. military assistance to Tbilisi. Russian airlines canceled flights to Georgia in response to an order from the Ministry of Transport. Small demonstrations were held outside the U.S. and Georgian Embassies. End summary. ¶2. (U) At a MOD press conference, Russian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Col. General Anatoliy Nagovitsyn said Russia was only carrying out "peacekeeping functions." He denied that Russian planes had bombed Tbilisi, but refused to respond to a question on whether Russia was bombing the port of Poti. He confirmed that as of August 9, 12 Russian peacekeepers had been killed, and 150 wounded. He also confirmed that two Russian planes had been lost. Interfax news agency later reported that three more peacekeepers had been killed, bringing the number to 15. It also reported about 50 Georgian soldiers had been killed and about 480 wounded. ¶3. (U) Russian media reported that an aide to the Russian Ground Forces Commander had confirmed that over 2,000 more Russian paratroopers were being sent to South Ossetia. Moscow Rossiya TV cited Vladimir Ivanov, aide to the Joint Peacekeeping Force, of saying that Russian troops were firing only at "buildings, constructions, and positions" occupied by Georgian forces, and that some of those forces were voluntarily laying down arms. ¶4. (U) In a statement on its website, the MFA lashed out at Ukraine, saying Kiev had "no moral right" to claim a role in resolving the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. It accused Ukraine of "recklessly arming the Georgian army to the teeth," and by so doing had "directly encouraged the Georgian leadership to intervene and to carry out ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia." Russia's Intentions -------------- ¶5. (C) The GOR continues to maintain it is merely protecting its citizens and seeking a return to the status quo ante, but its line has hardened (septel). According to European colleagues, Tarabrin told them "you knew what our red lines were, and you knew what the consequences would be. Those lines have been crossed. It is too late now to call for calm." He insisted the only thing Russia was seeking was an immediate and complete withdrawal of Georgian troops from South Ossetia. ¶6. (C) The MFA said the movement of elements of Russia's Black Sea Fleet to the coast of Abkhazia near Ochamchire was simply to protect Russian citizens, and to provide humanitarian assistance. the Georgian Charge d'Affaires confirmed they had received a diplomatic note informing them of the deployment. Otherwise, the Georgian Embassy has had no contact with the MFA. 7.(C) Experts said they did not believe Russia really wanted to widen the conflict to include Abkhazia or Tbilisi-controlled territory, but wanted to press Georgia to return to negotiations. They stressed that one of Russia's principal goals remained preventing Georgia from joining NATO, and commented that it was unlikely the Alliance would offer a Membership Action Plan, given the current situation. ¶8. (C) Experts told us they believed Russia must have prepared for a conflict with Georgia, but had most likely not expected it to occur when it did. The fact that Russian tanks and troops moved in to South Ossetia so quickly indicated they had been prepared to go in, and probably had instructions that if Georgia attacked in force, they were authorized to move in without further approval from Moscow. However, the fact that Putin was in Beijing and Medvedev was on a river cruise vacation signaled they had not expected the conflict to happen when it did, and gave rise to a question whether Saakashvili had chosen to take advantage of both leaders being out of Moscow. Anger, Questions, About U.S. Role -------------- ¶9. (C) Many are questioning whether the U.S. was behind Georgia's actions. Noting that the U.S. had always managed to pull Saakashvili back before, Trenin said the GOR was questioning whether the failure to do so this time showed the U.S. had given Saakashvili the green light to launch attacks. They were wondering whether this was a first move in a U.S. strategy to isolate or contain Russia, to get Russia mired in a war in the Caucasus, or engaged in a new arms race, in an effort to weaken or destroy Russia. Russia had seen the U.S. publicly criticizing Russian actions and calling on Russia to withdraw, but had not seen a corresponding response to Georgia's actions. The GOR was waiting to see what America's response - and intentions - would be. ¶10. (U) Several commentators said the U.S. shared responsibility for the hostilities in the region because it armed and trained the Georgian army. Saakashvili never would have ordered an assault if he was not confident he had U.S. and NATO support. "Georgia is using U.S. and NATO weapons to kill Russian soldiers and peacekeepers," said Izvestia Political Correspondent Dmitriy Litovkin, "and thus far has done nothing to stop the killing." The U.S., he said, was allowing Saakashvili to ethnically cleanse South Ossetia. Duma Deputy Vladimir Vasiliev, who sits on the Duma's Security Committee, has been widely quoted in the Russian press accusing the State Department, in particular, of providing Georgia with the political support and military means to open fire on South Ossetia. Experts pointed to U.S. instructors conducting exercises with the Georgian army in the days before the violence as a clear sign that Washington knew about Georgia's imminent South Ossetian operation. Still others have castigated the U.S. and its East European Allies and partners, particularly Ukraine, for supplying Georgia with arms that are being used in the conflict. At last week's MANPADS talks, General Buzhinskiy emphatically made this point, and urged the U.S. to use its influence in Eastern Europe to prevent further arms sales by NATO Allies to Saakashvili. Aeroflot and S7/Sibir Cancel Flights with Georgia -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) In response to the Russian Transport Ministry's August 8 order to cancel air traffic between Russia and Georgia by midnight on August 9, two of Russia's leading airlines announced their suspension of flights between the two countries. Aeroflot announced suspension of its Moscow-Tbilisi flights, which normally fly 6 times a week. S7/Sibir canceled its Moscow-Tbilisi flights and also its weekly flights to Kutaisi and Batumi. S7/Sibir also told ITAR-TASS that it had received notice early August 9 from Georgian aviation authorities to change its normal route over Ossetia and instead fly via Azerbaijan. Small Protests at U.S. and Georgian Embassies in Moscow -------------- -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Starting at 9:00 a.m. August 9, approximately 100 people gathered opposite the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to protest the situation in South Ossetia and express their displeasure with US support for Georgia. The protest was well-manned by both riot and local police, and dispersed at 2:30 p.m. without incident. On August 8, about 300 protesters from Kremlin-backed youth groups and the Communist Party gathered in front of the Georgian Embassy in Moscow in support of South Ossetia, carrying signs telling Georgia to "wake up and topple the vampire," referring to the Georgian President. There were no reports of violence at the protests. RUBIN