RUSSIA DENIES VOLUNTEER FLOW TO SOUTH OSSETIA;

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002274

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA DENIES VOLUNTEER FLOW TO SOUTH OSSETIA;
UNHCR CONFIRMS REFUGEE/IDPS

REF: MOSCOW 2268

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Alice G. Wells.
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The MFA denied August 6 that "volunteers"
were traveling from the North Caucasus to South Ossetia to
join the fighting in case of conflict with Georgia, noting
that the situation remained quiet. They said they could not
answer whether the GOR or local authorities in North Ossetia
were taking steps to discourage or prevent people from
crossing the border to join the separatists, noting simply
that Russia's envoy to South Ossetia Ambassador Popov would
discuss the issue on Thursday with Georgian Reintegration
Minister Yakobashvili and South Ossetian JCC representative
Chochiyev. Media reported that several Cossack organizations
had said they would send volunteers or provide practical
assistance to South Ossetia in the event of a conflict.
UNHCR confirmed to us that 548 children and 271 adults had
been evacuated to North Ossetia-Alania, and they expected 300
more before the end of the day. While reasonable voices in
the MFA decry the flirtation with volunteers, less
responsible actors likely see them as useful tools in keeping
temperatures high and Georgia off-balance. End summary.


2. (C) MFA 4th CIS Acting Director Dmitriy Tarabrin early
August 6 downplayed press reports of South Ossetian leader
Kokoity's claim that 300 "volunteers" from the North Caucasus
had traveled to South Ossetia to join the fighting in case of
war with Georgia and that up to 2000 would flow in. Saying
the MFA continued to believe Kokoity's statements about
"volunteers" were "declaratory only" (reftel) and the
situation in the region remained calm, Tarabrin said the GOR
did not think there would be a significant egress of persons
from North Ossetia or other Caucasus republics to South
Ossetia. However, he said he could not answer whether the
GOR was taking any measures to discourage or prevent such a
cross-border flow, noting that Popov would meet with the two
sides on Thursday.


3. (U) Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that Viktor Vodolatskiy,
State Duma Deputy and Supreme Chieftain of the Union of
Cossack Troops of Russian and Foreign States, had said the
Cossacks were "prepared to defend the people of South Ossetia
from Georgian aggression," and were ready to send 300
"volunteers" to enforce Russian and South Ossetian
peacekeeping battalions. A Don Cossack NGO, the Great Don
Army, had also announced its readiness to provide "practical
assistance" if peace negotiations failed. According to the
media, Great Don Army Chieftain Kozitsyn said lists of
volunteers had been formed and the Cossacks would be able to
send 10-15,000 volunteers, all of whom had combat experience.
The press noted that both leaders had been avoiding using
the term "mercenaries," since under the Russian criminal
code, "mercenary activity" was a crime punished by
imprisonment for three to seven years. But, experts said,
the crime was difficult to prove and applied only to
internationally recognized military conflicts, when profit
considerations were part of the person's motivation, and when
the mercenaries were not citizens of countries involved in
the conflict.


4. (C) UNHCR told us that according to their local government
counterparts as of the morning of August 6, 548 children and
271 adults had been recorded as having been evacuated from
South Ossetia to North Ossetia-Alania, and 300 more were
expected before the end of the day. There were no reports of
men or unaccompanied minors among the evacuees. UNHCR said
the arrivals were indeed evacuees and not children going as
usual to summer camp, but noted that it could not be excluded
that some such cases existed as children going to camp would
have occurred at the same time as the evacuation. They
reported they were not involved and had not yet been
requested to get involved. However, UNHCR, UNICEF and some
NGOs had visited some of the sites containing evacuees, but
since there were no declared or assessed urgent needs, and
local authorities seemed to be responding appropriately and
had not requested assistance, the agencies had not taken any
concrete actions. UNHCR, however, was prepared to assist if
required, even though most of the evacuees were likely not
refugees per se, since they held Russian passports.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) As Popov told us, playing with "volunteers" is
dangerous and provocative. While Cossack and other
"non-governmental" organizations may be posturing, Ekho
Moskviy Editor Venediktov is among those who have underscored
their utility to the Russian leadership, as elements less
reasonable than Popov seek to keep temperatures high in the
increasingly unfrozen conflict areas of Georgia.
RUBIN