MFA ON LEBANESE POLITICAL CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000191 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL LE RS SUBJECT: MFA ON LEBANESE POLITICAL CRISIS REF: 07 MOSCOW 5523 Classified By: Political M/C/ Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) In a January 23 meeting (other topics reported septel),MFA Middle East and North Africa Director Vershinin told us that Russia supported the Arab League's attempts to mediate Lebanon's political impasse over electing a new President. The GOR was pushing, both in public and in private, for the Lebanese factions to support the plan put forth by Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa to elect Lebanese Armed Forces Chief Michel Sulieman as a compromise President, form a national unity government, and pass a new election law. Deputy Foreign Minister Saltanov presented the Russian position during his latest round of regional consultations, which included stops this week in Beirut, Damascus, and Cairo. Vershinin reiterated, however, that the crisis was "family business" that must be settled within Lebanon with Arab assistance. ¶2. (C) Vershinin posited that the Lebanese factions "still have time" to reach a negotiated settlement and took issue with the U.S. and French belief that delay would translate into instability. Forcing a settlement upon the parties had not yet become necessary. Vershinin cited as evidence Lebanese parliamentary majority leader Rafik Hariri's visit to Moscow in November 2007, when he predicted a dire situation in Lebanon and sought immediate GOR intervention (reftel). Two months later, the situation in Lebanon remained calm. While leaving the negotiations to Amr Moussa, Vershinin was equivocal over Russia's position on how March 14's majority should translate into seats in the new government. BURNS