YABLOKO TURNS OVER A NEW LEAF

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001818

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: YABLOKO TURNS OVER A NEW LEAF

REF: A. MOSCOW 909

B. 07 MOSCOW 4772

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Bob Patterson. Reason: 1.4
(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: The fallout from founding father Grigoriy
Yavlinskiy's decision at the 15th Yabloko Party Congress to
resign as its head in favor of Sergey Mitrokhin is still
being examined. Yavlinskiy hoped that his resignation (while
staying engaged as a member of a new 12-person Political
Committee) and the party's restructuring would improve its
chances to stay relevant during the four-year electoral
hiatus. While the party's mainstream seems satisfied with
Yavlinskiy's decision and the accompanying structural reforms
to the party, representatives of its more radical elements
and political pundits are more skeptical. End Summary.

And Then There Were None
--------------


2. (SBU) The 15th congress of the Russian United Democratic
Party "Yabloko" took place in a Moscow suburb June 21-22.
The congress brought together 125 voting delegates from
throughout Russia. Outsiders were surprised that Yavlinskiy,
the party's leader for the past 15 years and one of its three
founders (along with current Russian Federation Ombudsman
Vladimir Lukin and Yuriy Boldyrev, who has now gone over to
the pro-Kremlin Just Russia party) announced his resignation
as leader of the party and supported the candidacy of his
deputy, Moscow City Duma member Sergey Mitrokhin. Mitrokhin
later told reporters that Yavlinskiy had originally suggested
that he take over the reins of the party after the December
2007 Duma elections. The congress was not without its drama,
although it paled in comparison to the Russia-Netherlands
European football quarterfinal with which it was competing
for attention. It quashed dissent within the party by
minimizing the influence of Maksim Reznik, head of the
party's active St. Petersburg branch, although it stopped
short of expelling him and others who have co-operated with
more-radical opposition groups.


3. (SBU) On the evening of June 21, the election of the
party's leader began with six announced candidates:
Yavlinskiy; Mitrokhin; Reznik; St. Petersburg representative
Sergey Ivanenko; Head of the Federal Anti-trust Service Igor
Artemyev and Kareliya Yabloko head Vasiliy Popov. According
to press reports, Artemyev and Ivanenko dropped out in favor
of Mitrokhin, followed in short order by Yavlinskiy, who in
announcing his decision, told the members that he had
"dreamed" that the party would be able to exist without him.
Mitrokhin received the support of 75 delegates, while Maksim
Reznik, who had been nominated by Yabloko's
independent-minded St. Petersburg branch, received 24 votes
and Popov, 20. Six ballots were declared invalid.


4. (SBU) In opening the party congress, Yavlinskiy said that
it must introduce new people into leadership positions. In
addition to electing a new party chairman, the congress
abolished the deputy chairman positions; it will now have
secretaries who will cover different aspects of the party's
life. To make the party leadership "more horizontal" (an
attempt to distinguish it from the "vertical of power" used
to describe the current tandemocracy of Medvedev and Putin)
the delegates approved the creation of a 12-member Political
Committee. This new body will not have a chairman. Its
members include Mitrokhin, Yavlinskiy, Popov, Artemyev,
former deputy chairs Sergey Ivanenko and Aleksey Arbatov,
party Central Committee member Yelena Dubrovina, Yabloko
Party staff head Boris Bisnik, Yabloko Green faction head
Aleksey Yablokov, St. Petersburg Yabloko representative
Mikhail Amosov, human rights activist Sergey Kovalev and
party member Viktor Sheynis. According to press reports, the
powers of the Political Committee are rather wide and
include, among others, termination of the responsibilities of
the party chairman and convoking extraordinary party
congresses. The Political Committee will also formulate the
position of the party on key political issues and distribute
financial resources. It is expected to meet at least once
every three months.


5. (SBU) Delegates also authorized staffing changes to the
33-member party Bureau. Seventy percent of the Bureau's
members are to be new and 12 of them should be under the age
of 35. At the 15th Party Congress only 18 members received
the required number of votes for election to the Bureau. The
third time proved lucky for Reznik, who had previously lost
to Mitrokhin in his bid to become head of the party and was
also not selected to join the party's Political Committee.
Less fortunate was Moscow Yabloko youth leader Ilya Yashin.
The St. Petersburg contingent of the party had recently taken
a defiantly anti-Kremlin approach (ref A) and participated in
the National Assembly organized by Garry Kasparov, Mikhail
Kasyanov and the National Bolsheviks. Moscow party
representatives have favored a more accommodating path with
the Kremlin and both Yavlinskiy and Mitrokhin had previously
stated publicly that participation in the National Assembly
is incompatible with Yabloko party membership.

Many are Skeptical About the Party's Restructuring
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Yabloko members have found it difficult to
determine how effective the new structure will be, especially
how "horizontal" and progressive the new Political Committee
will be. Yabloko announced plans for a second session in the
fall to review these structural changes. Yashin did not
think that refitting the party's Bureau with new, younger
members would improve Yabloko's situation. "The point is not
how young the party's leaders are, but rather how
independent," he lamented.


7. (SBU) Political experts and observers have been rather
skeptical about Yabloko's possible re-animation. Although
most agreed that the change of leadership was welcome, many
believed the party is in crisis, that a change in leadership
is not enough, and that other steps should be taken to ensure
the party's survival. Alexander Kynev, an expert at the
International Institute of Humanitarian and Political
Studies, said that Yavlinskiy should have left as head of the
party eight years ago. Mikhail Vinogradov, General Director
of the Center of Contemporary Politics did not believe
Yavlinskiy's resignation would improve the process of
unifying the democratic forces in Russia. He thought that
"the decay of the party is its more likely future," unless
the Kremlin chooses Yabloko to become the major democratic
party in Russia. "The developments within the party are of
secondary importance," he concluded. Political scientist
Konstantin Simonov said that Yavlinskiy had to leave, given
the party's poor showing in the December 2007 parliamentary
elections in which it only received 1.6 percent of the vote.
Simonov told the Vedomosti newspaper that "Yabloko has no
future, either with Yavlinskiy, or without him."


8. (SBU) Union of Right Forces (SPS) leader Nikita Belykh
was more optimistic. He thought that under Mitrokhin,
interaction between Yabloko and SPS would improve. Political
scientist Dmitriy Oreshkin agreed with Belykh that with
Mitrokhin as head of the party, changes can be expected,
particularly along the lines of organizational and personnel
work.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Conversations with party members and leadership over
the past year have indicated weariness with Yavlinskiy, who
had led the party since its inception. Yabloko had struggled
to find a strategy equal to the current Kremlin power
structure. Yavlinskiy's recent overtures to the Kremlin,
including his comment at the Congress that the party is open
to a dialogue with the Kremlin, as well as rumors that he
would accept a government job if offered, show that the party
favors accommodation and compromise with the government. Its
choice to work with the Kremlin may, in the end, be no more
inspired that the inclination of some to fight it on the
streets, and could be yet another phase in the party's
continuing march to irrelevance.
RUSSELL