UNITED RUSSIA'S CONFERENCE RAISES MORE QUESTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001610

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA'S CONFERENCE RAISES MORE QUESTIONS
THAN ANSWERS

REF: A. MOSCOW 01345

B. ST PETERSBURG 00106

Classified By: CDA Daniel A. Russell. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Sound bites from top Kremlin and government
leaders over the past week about United Russia gave mixed
signals to an already confused elite about the party's
significance in the emerging "tandem" system. At the May 29
United Russia conference, PA Head Sergey Naryshkin and his
Deputy, Vladislav Surkov, joined Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov
in calling a re-assessment of United Russia's election focus
to an emphasis on administration and implementation. It is
unclear how a party driven by the members' self-interest and
opportunism can make the vision a reality or, if successful,
who would be the beneficiary in the Medvedev-Putin tandem.
Conventional wisdom gives Putin the greater influence today -
evidenced by his comments touting his position at United
Russia's helm as more significant than his appointment as
Premier. Yet, some viewed Medvedev's June 2 letter against
changing the media law as a signal that the new President
will also assert his authority vis-a-vis the party-dominated
legislature. As with so much in Russia today, we are
unlikely to have a clear understanding of United Russia's
role in the new constellation until at least the fall, when
Medvedev's ideas are turned into legislation proposals. End
summary.

A Party In Search of a Purpose
--------------


2. (SBU) On May 29, representatives from United Russia's
regional branches joined with the Moscow leadership at the
Presidential Administration to discuss the party's further
development. After the requisite backslapping for the
"electoral successes" in the parliamentary and presidential
races, the party leaders took turns in explaining coming
challenges for the country in general and the party
specifically. PA head Naryshkin's speech focused primarily
on the economic agenda, outlining four tasks for the party
over the coming years: the transition to an "innovation"
economy; institutional modernization; development of law
enforcement and judicial systems; and the improvement of
economic institutions by creating a competitive environment
and overcoming monopolistic trends. None of this broke new
ground for the conference delegates, since the ideas of
economic liberalism inherent in Naryshkin's speech devolve
from the administration's Strategy to 2020 -- Putin's
blueprint for economic development that Medvedev has adopted
as the centerpiece of his administration. But, Naryshkin
drove home the point that the party had to adapt to the new
circumstances and play a central role in implementing the
government's agenda.


3. (SBU) Gryzlov's speech on re-organizing and re-shaping
United Russia followed a similar line as Naryshkin, but his
comments may have been more troubling to the attendees, since
he proposed changes potentially threatening not only the rank
and file, but also the regional leadership. Gryzlov
challenged the party to make the transition from election
victory to success in administration and management. He
highlighted the "debate" among the party's various clubs,
praising the unifying position of Putin as party head as
providing sufficient gravity to allow a diversity of views
within the membership. Moreover, he called for the
development of a personnel reserve, identifying a thousand
potential candidates to fill mayoral and gubernatorial posts
in the coming 5-10 years -- presaging more personnel turnover
and cadre rotations, primarily from the party ranks.
Following Putin's criticism last fall, when the then
President a