DUMA RESOLUTION CALLS FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001607

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2018
TAGS: PBTS PGOV PREL RS
SUBJECT: DUMA RESOLUTION CALLS FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM BIG
TREATY

REF: MOSCOW 1517

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice G. Wells for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On June 4, the State Duma adopted a
nonbinding resolution calling for the GOR to withdraw from
the "Big Treaty" with Ukraine, should a NATO MAP be extended
to the GOU. Prior to the vote, FM Lavrov said Ukraine's NATO
accession would represent a "colossal geopolitical shift"
that would threaten Russia's interests. The vote was timed
to exert maximum pressure: just prior to a
Medvedev-Yushchenko meeting in St. Petersburg and joint
military maneuvers involving U.S., Ukrainian, and some NATO
militaries. Russian experts have speculated that withdrawing
from the Big Treaty would give the GOR the right to challenge
Ukraine's sovereignty over Sevastopol. End Summary.

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The Vote
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2. (U) In yet another chapter in the ongoing dispute over
Ukraine's NATO aspirations, on June 4 the State Duma voted
408-5 in favor of adopting a nonbinding resolution calling
for Russia's withdrawal from the 1997 Treaty of Friendship,
Cooperation, and Partnership ("Big Treaty") if Ukraine is
offered NATO MAP or "takes other steps" to speed up NATO
accession. Prior to the vote, FM Lavrov told the Duma that
every country has the right to pursue its own foreign policy,
but "the acceptance into NATO of Ukraine and Georgia will
mean a colossal geopolitical shift and we assess such steps
from the point of view of our interests." The vote came just
days before Medvedev is to meet Yushchenko in St. Petersburg
on the margins of the International Economic Forum, and one
week before Ukraine is to participate in joint military
maneuvers in Crimea with the U.S. and other NATO countries
beginning June 12. (Note: These are not NATO exercises.)

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Moscow Applies Pressure
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3. (C) The experts told us the Duma vote is another instance
of the GOR using the body to issue tough resolutions
regarding disputes with foreign countries. According to
Deputy Director of the Moscow-based CIS Institute Vladimir
Zharikhin, it was important for Russia to send a message to
Yushchenko that it does not approve of the GOU's plans to
join NATO. The GOR, he said, wanted to take an aggressive
posture when Medvedev meets with Yushchenko. The tactic may
be working, he argued, as the Ukrainian Rada has delayed a
vote that would allow foreign troops on its soil ahead of the
upcoming joint military maneuvers. Allowing NATO troops in
Crimea at such a sensitive time would greatly upset the GOR,
he said.

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Possible Consequences
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4. (C) Some experts speculate that withdrawing from the Big
Treaty could open the door for Russia to mount a legal
challenge to Ukraine's sovereignty over Sevastopol. Under
the Big Treaty, the GOR recognized Sevastopol as part of
Ukraine (reftel). Zharikhin (as well as some GOR officials)
argued, however, that Ukraine's decision to join NATO would
violate Article 6 of the Treaty, which stipulated that
neither party will take any action or join any organization
that threatens the security of the other. If Ukraine
violated the Treaty by joining NATO, then Russia could
possibly lay claim to Sevastopol, he argued.

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Comment
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5. (C) The GOR has consistently used the Duma to raise the
temperature of Russian-Georgian relations, particularly with
respect to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As Ukraine's
aspirations for NATO have achieved a higher profile, the GOR
has begun to devoted greater political resources to
suggesting th