PROGRESS IN LEBANON AND SYRIA BODES WELL FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001515 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IR LE SY RS SUBJECT: PROGRESS IN LEBANON AND SYRIA BODES WELL FOR MOSCOW ME CONFERENCE? REF: MOSCOW 1375 Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) MFA Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa Oleg Ozerov told us on May 28 that positive developments in Lebanon and Syria justified revisiting dates for the GOR's planned Moscow Middle East conference. The GOR believed that settlement of the Lebanese political crisis with the election of a new President and progress in Syria-Israel talks should be capitalized on, possibly with a conference held before the end of summer. Ozerov explained that the GOR sought an expanded agenda, since the different negotiating tracks inevitably would play off one another and require the support of the Quartet and Arab neighbors. Ozerov reiterated GOR support for the efforts of the President and Secretary, and painted a Moscow follow-on conference as building on the momentum begun by the U.S. ¶2. (C) Ozerov said it was difficult to asses how the Syria-Israel negotiations would develop. Moscow had been aware of the talks underway, assumed it knew the contours of a proposed settlement, but was not briefed on the details. He argued that "normalization" of the situation in Lebanon presented a favorable climate for the Syria-Israel talks. Ozerov maintained that the outcome of the Lebanese political crisis was win-win, since it was not settled by Syria or Iran, but by the Lebanese factions themselves. He reiterated Russia's insistence that Lebanon settle its problems without the interference of foreign powers; while Moscow had reinforced this message with Iran, Ozerov cautioned against attempts to exclude Iran from discussions of regional issues. ¶3. (C) Ozerov said that its was "unclear" what progress had been made on the Palestine-Israel negotiations, which, he believed, presented a "last chance" for a well balanced outcome that offered benefits to both the Palestinians and Israelis. Moscow looked to the U.S. to secure Israeli compliance with its pledge to reduce roadblocks. Having just visited some of the sites in question, Ozerov expressed disappointment over Israeli actions to date and stressed that the goal had to be a meaningful improvement in the daily lives of Palestinians. Russia would continue to support Palestinian economic development, which was the best way to strengthen Abbas' position. Most recently, a Russian delegation took part in a Russia-Arab business council mission to examine potential investment in the Palestinian tourism sector -- with Russian tourists an increasingly prominent segment of the market. While joking over whether Olmert or Abbas hated Hamas more, Ozerov renewed Russian arguments that Palestinian unity was essential to move forward. ¶4. (C) Israeli Emboff Michael Brodsky told us that his Embassy had not heard anything new from the GOR regarding the possibility of a Moscow conference since the May 13 visit of Israeli MFA Deputy General Director Leshno-Yaar, who was quizzed by Russian officials on the progress of the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations (reftel). Brodsky understood that the GOR was depending upon progress on the Palestinian track to determine when the timing was right for its conference, but could look to progress on other fronts to call its long desired meeting. RUSSELL