WAR OF WORDS OVER ABKHAZIA CONTINUES; SOUTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001512

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RS
SUBJECT: WAR OF WORDS OVER ABKHAZIA CONTINUES; SOUTH
OSSETIA BROUGHT INTO MIX

REF: MOSCOW 1499

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4(b) and
(D)


1. (C) Summary: The verbal fireworks between Russia and
Georgia continued May 28-29 with Russian FM Lavrov declaring
that Russia could not negotiate with the current regime in
Tbilisi and suggesting a "foreign hand" was guiding Georgia's
actions, while Georgia called for an urgent UN Security
Council meeting, demanded compensation for the drone shot
down on April 20, and insisted Russia had rebuffed an April
23 opportunity to investigate the incident. Meanwhile,
Russian Co-Chair of the Joint Control Commission (JCC) for
Georgian-Ossetian Conflict Resolution Yuriy Popov, in a May
27 interview, reminded observers that the situation in South
Ossetia gave serious grounds for concern. The MFA said it
was likely that President Medvedev would meet with Georgian
President Saakashvili at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum
June 6-8, but noted the GOR had not received confirmation of
Saakashvili's attendance. The Georgian Embassy here,
however, confirmed Saakashvili would travel to St.
Petersburg, regardless of a presidential meeting. Lowering
the public rhetoric will create more opportunity for the
first Medvedev-Saakashvili meeting to be a success. End
summary.

War of Words
--------------


2. (U) On May 27, following issuance of the UNOMIG report on
the April 20 shootdown of a UAV over Abkhazia, FM Lavrov and
the Russian MFA accused Georgia of having refused to allow
Russia to investigate the incident or to inspect the
videotape of the UAV destruction. In the wake of Georgian
demands for compensation for the UAV, insistence that the
Russians had been offered on April 23 an opportunity to study
the UAV shootdown and exchange information, and call for an
urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, Lavrov announced
during a press conference May 28 that Russia could not
negotiate with the current regime in Tbilisi. Lavrov charged
that he did not understand what the Georgian authorities
wanted, unless they were "being used by someone else to
constantly provoke Russia." He reiterated previous
statements claiming Russia had withdrawn its troops from
Georgia, and argued Georgia was breaking the terms of
agreements which Russia was prepared to uphold. Lavrov also
said he doubted that Georgia would go through with the
agreement to set up a joint antiterrorism center in Batumi.


3. (C) Dmitriy Tarabrin, Deputy Director of the 4th CIS
Department of the MFA, told us May 29 that the only offer the
Georgians had made following the April 20 incident was to
exchange radar information. They had never provided Russia
with the actual video, without which the GOR could not
determine the veracity of the tape. All Russian experts had
been able to view was the Internet version which could easily
have been fabricated or doctored.


4. (C) Tarabrin said Russia was not opposed to holding a
meeting of the UN Security Council but reiterated that if
Georgia were to be present, Abkhaz authorities should also be
allowed to participate.

Saakashvili-Medvedev?
--------------


5. (C) When asked whether he could confirm that Medvedev
would meet with Georgian President Saakashvili at the June
6-8 St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Tarabrin said the
Georgians had requested the meeting and Russia expected it to
take place, but the GOR had not yet received confirmation of
Saakashvili's attendance at the Forum. Georgian Embassy
officials, however, confirmed that Saakashvili would travel
to St. Petersburg, regardless of a meeting with Medvedev.

Don't Forget South Ossetia
--------------


6. (U) In an interview with Izvestiya May 28, JCC Co-Chair
Popov said that while developments in South Ossetia were not
as sensational as in Abkhazia "where with mysterious suicidal
stubbornness unmanned spy planes have got into the habit of
flying in, only to be downed every time by Abkhaz air defense
forces," there were serious reasons for concern. He claimed
the numbers of Georgian police were being built up, road
movement was being blocked, and Georgia was still not
interested in overcoming the vacuum in the negotiating
process. He asserted that Georgia was ignoring Russia's
outstanding proposal to hold an informal meeting of the JCC

MOSCOW 00001512 002 OF 002


Co-Chairs in Moscow to reanimate the dialogue and concluded
that Georgian ill-will had frozen the negotiating process.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) While Security Council Deputy Secretary Zubakov is in
Tbilisi (accompanied by Georgian Ambassador Kitsmarishvili)
for private consultations, the public rhetoric has heated up
again, eroding what little of the good will that might have
been behind the warm national day message by Medvedev. As we
saw in the 2006 spy scandal, Russia will respond to Georgian
name and shame tactics by digging in. This latest public
exchange obviously has not helped set the stage for the
expected Medvedev-Saakashvili encounter in St. Petersburg.
RUSSELL