RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000147 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2018 TAGS: PREL NATO KCFE UP RS SUBJECT: RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED REF: KYIV 0042 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1. 4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Russia's reaction to Ukraine's announcement that it would seek a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the NATO Summit in Bucharest (reftel) has been negative, but relatively low-key, reflecting the GOR's assessment that MAP is unlikely. MFA Counselor for NATO issues Gregoriy Sumkin told us January 17 that the MFA has not yet officially reacted to the news, but the GOR stood fully behind Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Chernomyrdin's comment that Russia would be forced to "take extreme measures" if Ukraine joined NATO. MFA spokesman Krivtsov told the press that "it was Ukraine's business whether to join the Alliance or not. But, if Ukraine enters NATO, we will have to review our foreign policy to take this fact into account." ¶2. (C) Sumkin explained that Russia's position had not changed: Russia was strongly opposed to NATO membership for Ukraine and continued to believe that it would be destabilizing for Ukraine and the region. He said that Ukrainian NATO membership would "drastically affect" Russian-Ukrainian relations in all spheres, including political, economic, and military-industrial (military assistance and arms production agreements). He admitted that the timing of the announcement had taken the GOR by surprise, and was aggravating, given the breadth of issues already on the agenda for the Bucharest NATO Summit. He expressed skepticism that a Ukrainian referendum on NATO Membership would pass. ¶3. (C) Isabelle Francois, Director of the NATO Information Office, reiterated Sumkin's comments, noting that GOR officials had expressed doubts that Ukraine's request for a MAP would be accepted at the Bucharest Summit. Tatyana Parkhalina, Director of the Center for European Security, told us she expected that if Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia would likely withdraw completely from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) and would use the action to engender public support for significant increases to the military budget. Defense expert Aleksandr Golts was skeptical that Ukraine was seriously seeking NATO membership, claiming former Ukrainian President Kuchma had used the prospect of NATO membership for years as a bargaining chip to get preferential gas deals from Russia. ¶4. (C) Comment. Russia has made clear that Ukrainian (and Georgian) NATO membership is a red line for them, and would affect not only Russia's relations with those countries, but also with the Alliance as a whole. Russia could seek to strengthen the military capabilities of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),build up its Black Sea Fleet further, look for new suppliers for some of its defense and servicing systems, and cease preferential deals on energy supplies. We understand that Ukrainian PM Tymoshenko will travel to Moscow the week of January 21 to discuss gas supplies and other bilateral issues. End comment. BURNS