LOW-KEY RUSSIAN REACTION TO SERBIAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001385

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV SR RS
SUBJECT: LOW-KEY RUSSIAN REACTION TO SERBIAN ELECTIONS

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wells.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Russia has maintained a low-key reaction to
Serbian Parliamentary elections May 11, in which the
pro-Western party of President Boris Tadic won a plurality of
votes, insisting that Russia does not get involved in the
internal affairs of other countries. Several members of
Russia's Federation Council cautioned that Tadic's "victory"
did not mean Tadic would be able to form a coalition. While
most commentators and European diplomats here say Russia
would have preferred to see Serbia's nationalists win, they
also note that Russia sees economic benefits in Serbia's
long-term integration into the European Union and Western
institutions. End summary.


2. (SBU) During a press conference with German FM Steinmeier
in Yekaterinburg May 14, FM Lavrov was asked whether the
Serbian elections did not demonstrate that Serbia was
choosing Europe over Russia. Lavrov responded that Russia
was not in the habit of getting involved in the internal
affairs of other countries, and had no bias against any
political party in Serbia. He dismissed the argument that
the election results should be perceived as a victory of the
EU and the West over Russia, noting that he did not think
Russia should search for areas of competition with the EU to
identify which was the winner, and which the loser. Rather,
he said, Russia was developing a strategic partnership with
the EU, especially in international relations, based on
principles of full equality and mutual consideration of
interests.


3. (SBU) Lavrov continued that the chief conclusion of the
elections was an acknowledgment of the democratic nature of
the Serbian state, but he didn't lose the opportunity to
raise Kosovo, saying that Russia would not forget that a part
of "this democratic European state's" territory had been
"unilaterally torn away." He said this was illegal and
should be reconsidered.


4. (SBU) The Russian press has also been fairly muted.
Daily Kommersant, in an editorial May 12, criticized Russia's
pre-election private support for Vojislav Kostunica's
Democratic Party, saying that Kostunica was merely an
"appendage of the radicals," and arguing that for Russia's
long-term interests in the Balkans, it was essential to
develop better ties with Tadic, since Nikolic was already in
Russia's camp, while Tadic represented "the forces advocating
Serbia's good relations with Russia, as well as the West."
It also noted that Tadic had stuck by his promise to Putin by
having his Council of Ministers approve the oil and gas
agreement with Russia, allowing Gazprom to buy Serbia's
largest oil and gas company. On May 13, Kommersant carried
an editorial from Zorana Boic, Chief of the Serbian News
Agency, saying Kosovo was no longer the trump card for
Serbian nationalists.


5. (C) Several EU diplomats and experts echoed press reports
quoting an unnamed Russian official saying Russia does not
see any problem with closer relations between Brussels and
Belgrade. They note that with approval of the oil and gas
agreement, which includes the potential laying of a
400-kilometer segment of the South Stream pipeline through
Serbia, and Gazprom Neft acquisition of 51 percent of Serbian
oil and gas company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS),Russia
will benefit by a closer relationship between Serbia and the
EU, including eventual EU membership. Russia is pressing
Serbia to submit the agreement to Parliament for
ratification, but according to Serbian embassy colleagues,
Tadic preferred to wait until the new Parliament was formed.
RUSSELL