JUST RUSSIA FLOUNDERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001192 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI RS SUBJECT: JUST RUSSIA FLOUNDERS REF: MOSCOW 1031 Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On April 25 the pro-Kremlin Just RUSSIA (SR) party held its third party convention at the State Kremlin Palace amid speculation that its days as even a limited a political force were numbered. Just RUSSIA Chairman Mironov offered assembled delegates at the listless convention little in the way of a path forward for a party that simultaneously professes loyalty to Putin and opposition to the party that the President has elected to chair. Contributing to the fragility of SR's political fortunes is jockeying for top political sinecures, including Mironov's speakership of the Federation Council. End summary. A Forum and a Conference -------------- ¶2. (U) Following disappointing regional election results in March and a decision (reftel) by Putin to head the dominant United RUSSIA party, a dispirited Just RUSSIA party staged its third party convention on April 25 within Kremlin walls at the State Kremlin Palace. The party called the conference to adopt changes to the party platform, to take stock after a relatively weak showing in the December Duma and regional elections, and to chart a future without the active support of either Putin or President-elect Medvedev. ¶3. (U) Delegates to the April 24-25 events gave SR Chairman Sergey Mironov a rather perfunctory standing ovation, before welcoming representatives from the socialist parties of Bulgaria, Ukraine, Finland, and Hungary. A mid-level representative from the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee also spoke. Conference delegates agreed --unanimously-- to a number of technical changes to the party charter, and backed Mironov's unopposed bid to remain party chairman. ¶4. (U) Attendance at the Just RUSSIA convention paled when compared with the earlier United RUSSIA convention two weeks earlier. Putin, Medvedev, most of the cabinet, and large swathes of the national and regional leadership had attended the United RUSSIA event, while Putin and Medvedev sent only taped greetings to the Just RUSSIA convention, and other government representatives were absent. The 232 official registered delegates were overwhelmed by the thousands of guests, among them a large youth group supplied waving party placards. The majority of guests left following Mironov's address in order to stroll the Kremlin grounds and take tourist photos. ¶5. (C) In his keynote address, Mironov accepted blame for the party's poor showing in March, when it won seats in only five of ten local legislatures, but complained that United Russia had used administrative resources against SR, including police harassment in Yaroslavl region. Mironov also drew a sharp distinction between Just Russia's platform, which he described as socialist, and the "oligarchic-bureaucratic interests" of United Russia. Should a two-party system emerge from Russia, Mironov said, Just Russia would be United Russia's logical opposition number. ¶6. (C) Putin's decision to affiliate himself with United Russia had put the loyal Just RUSSIA party in a difficult position. Mironov attempted to extract Just RUSSIA from the difficulty Putin had caused by affiliating with United RUSSIA by first praising the President, then rationalizing Putin's decision. Mironov credited Putin for rescuing RUSSIA from the economic and political chaos of the '90s and if, Mironov continued, "the President considers it necessary to lead (United Russia) in order to continue the country's course, we will respect his decision." Mironov found some solace in the fact that Putin had earlier stated his preference for a multi-party system. He hoped that Putin would end United Russia's practice of using negative campaign tactics and abuse of administrative resources in election campaigns. ¶7. (C) Political commentators were quick to sound Just Russia's death knell. The Center for Political Information's Aleksey Mukhin dismissed the party as a Kremlin project that had outlived its usefulness. Mukhin reminded his readers that Kremlin party ideologue Vladislav Surkov had made no secret of his dislike for Just RUSSIA and that it was only Mironov's close association Putin that had allowed the party to survive. Center for Political Technology (a Medvedev-affiliated think tank) Deputy Boris Makarenko pointed to SR's removal from the ballot in Yaroslavl as evidence of the shrinking political space for opposition in Russia. While stopping short of predicting SR's collapse, the Kremlin-connected editor Vitaliy Tretyakov warned that SR was in real trouble, in part because Mironov's sinecure as MOSCOW 00001192 002 OF 002 Federation Council Speaker was a lucrative political plum during a time of shifting political forces. While Mironov was a loyal Putin ally, Tretyakov speculated that he was no longer useful to the Kremlin. Nezavisimaya Gazeta Editor Konstantin Remchukov speculated to us that Mironov's speakership could get tied up in mayoral politics, as the Kremlin casts about for a perch distinguished enough for Moscow Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov to retire to. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The perfunctory event was short on both substance and energy. The task of positioning Just RUSSIA so that it is both loyal to Putin and in opposition to both the party he now heads and many of the policies to be enacted by his government would be beyond the ability of even the most skilled party operative. Mironov is not a leader of that caliber, and it seems clear, absent a decision to merge United and Just Russia, that the party will likely continue to flounder until the next national election. RUSSELL