JUST RUSSIA FLOUNDERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001192

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI RS
SUBJECT: JUST RUSSIA FLOUNDERS

REF: MOSCOW 1031

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Summary: On April 25 the pro-Kremlin Just Russia (SR)
party held its third party convention at the State Kremlin
Palace amid speculation that its days as even a limited a
political force were numbered. Just Russia Chairman Mironov
offered assembled delegates at the listless convention little
in the way of a path forward for a party that simultaneously
professes loyalty to Putin and opposition to the party that
the President has elected to chair. Contributing to the
fragility of SR's political fortunes is jockeying for top
political sinecures, including Mironov's speakership of the
Federation Council. End summary.

A Forum and a Conference
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2. (U) Following disappointing regional election results in
March and a decision (reftel) by Putin to head the dominant
United Russia party, a dispirited Just Russia party staged
its third party convention on April 25 within Kremlin walls
at the State Kremlin Palace. The party called the conference
to adopt changes to the party platform, to take stock after a
relatively weak showing in the December Duma and regional
elections, and to chart a future without the active support
of either Putin or President-elect Medvedev.


3. (U) Delegates to the April 24-25 events gave SR Chairman
Sergey Mironov a rather perfunctory standing ovation, before
welcoming representatives from the socialist parties of
Bulgaria, Ukraine, Finland, and Hungary. A mid-level
representative from the Chinese Communist Party Central
Committee also spoke. Conference delegates agreed
--unanimously-- to a number of technical changes to the party
charter, and backed Mironov's unopposed bid to remain party
chairman.


4. (U) Attendance at the Just Russia convention paled when
compared with the earlier United Russia convention two weeks
earlier. Putin, Medvedev, most of the cabinet, and large
swathes of the national and regional leadership had attended
the United Russia event, while Putin and Medvedev sent only
taped greetings to the Just Russia convention, and other
government representatives were absent. The 232 official
registered delegates were overwhelmed by the thousands of
guests, among them a large youth group supplied waving party
placards. The majority of guests left following Mironov's
address in order to stroll the Kremlin grounds and take
tourist photos.


5. (C) In his keynote address, Mironov accepted blame for
the party's poor showing in March, when it won seats in only
five of ten local legislatures, but complained that United
Russia had used administrative resources against SR,
including police harassment in Yaroslavl region. Mironov
also drew a sharp distinction between Just Russia's platform,
which he described as socialist, and the
"oligarchic-bureaucratic interests" of United Russia. Should
a two-party system emerge from Russia, Mironov said, Just
Russia would be United Russia's logical opposition number.


6. (C) Putin's decision to affiliate himself with United
Russia had put the loyal Just Russia party in a difficult
position. Mironov attempted to extract Just Russia from the
difficulty Putin had caused by affiliating with United Russia
by first praising the President, then rationalizing Putin's
decision. Mironov credited Putin for rescuing Russia from
the economic and political chaos of the '90s and if, Mironov
continued, "the President considers it necessary to lead
(United Russia) in order to continue the country's course, we
will respect his decision." Mironov found some solace in the
fact that Putin had earlier stated his preference for a
multi-party system. He hoped that Putin would end United
Russia's practice of using negative campaign tactics and
abuse of administrative resources in election campaigns.


7. (C) Political commentators were quick to sound Just
Russia's death knell. The Center for Political Information's
Aleksey Mukhin dismissed the party as a Kremlin project that
had outlived its usefulness. Mukhin reminded his readers that
Kremlin party ideologue Vladislav Surkov had made no secret
of his dislike for Just Russia and that it was only Mironov's
close association Putin that had allowed the party to
survive. Center for Political Technology (a
Medvedev-affiliated think tank) Deputy Boris Makarenko
pointed to SR's removal from the ballot in Yaroslavl as
evidence of the shrinking political space for opposition in
Russia. While stopping short of predicting SR's collapse,
the Kremlin-connected editor Vitaliy Tretyakov warned that SR
was in real trouble, in part because Mironov's sinecure as

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Federation Council Speaker was a lucrative political plum
during a time of shifting political forces. While Mironov
was a loyal Putin ally, Tretyakov speculated that he was no
longer useful to the Kremlin. Nezavisimaya Gazeta Editor
Konstantin Remchukov speculated to us that Mironov's
speakership could get tied up in mayoral politics, as the
Kremlin casts about for a perch distinguished enough for
Moscow Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov to retire to.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The perfunctory event was short on both substance and
energy. The task of positioning Just Russia so that it is
both loyal to Putin and in opposition to both the party he
now heads and many of the policies to be enacted by his
government would be beyond the ability of even the most
skilled party operative. Mironov is not a leader of that
caliber, and it seems clear, absent a decision to merge
United and Just Russia, that the party will likely continue
to flounder until the next national election.
RUSSELL