RUSSIAN REACTION TO POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000114

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PK RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN REACTION TO POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN
PAKISTAN

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Official Russian reaction to the
assassination of Benazir Bhutto was swift but limited, with
Putin publicly condemning the attack and the MFA calling for
Pakistani parliamentary elections to be held as planned on
January 8. MFA officials understood, however, that
Musharraf's decision to postpone elections until February was
necessitated by the unrest following Bhutto's death, and
concern that the Pakistani President's political allies would
have been defeated by Bhutto supporters. The MFA predicted
that no party will win a majority in Parliament and a
coalition government could be formed. The GOR believes a
successful election would further Pakistani democratization
and increase Musharraf's political legitimacy. The GOR
continues to support the U.S. role in Pakistan and views in a
positive light the close ties between the U.S. and senior
Pakistani military leaders, including armed forces chief
General Kayani. End summary.

GOR Remains Concerned About Pakistani Stability
-------------- --


2. (U) Official Russian reaction to Bhutto's assassination
was swift but limited, in keeping with the GOR's typically
circumscribed public comments on Pakistan. On December 27,
the day Bhutto was killed, Putin publicly condemned the
assassination and noted that terrorism challenged not only
Pakistan but the "international community." The MFA issued a
statement calling upon all Pakistani political forces to show
restraint in order to avoid further provoking extremists that
hoped to take advantage of the "complex situation" that
existed in advance of parliamentary elections. An MFA
spokesman said Russia hoped elections would go ahead as
scheduled on January 8. The long New Year - Orthodox
Christmas holiday period stretching December 31 - January 7
led to limited commentary on the assassination and its
consequences.


3. (C) MFA Pakistan Desk Chief Andrey Starkov told us on
January 15 that the Bhutto assassination had significantly
raised the profile of Pakistan within the GOR, which remained
concerned about stability in the nuclear armed state. While
Russia had called upon elections to go ahead as scheduled,
the GOR understood Musharraf's decision to postpone elections
until February 18. The rioting that followed Bhutto's death
had to subside before elections could be held. Starkov also
believed that Musharraf calculated delaying the election by a
month would allow emotions to cool and prevent Bhutto's
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) from receiving a
disproportionately high sympathy vote.

Elections to Further Pakistani Democracy
--------------


4. (C) Starkov thought it likely that no party would win a
majority in parliamentary elections, and following a period
of negotiations among political leaders, a coalition
government could emerge. Although many Bhutto supporters are
critical of Musharraf's failure to protect the former Prime
Minister -- some even implicate Musharraf in the
assassination -- the attempted political negotiations between
the two in advance of elections could have set the stage for
Bhutto's PPP and Musharraf's allies in the Pakistan Muslim
League (PLM-Q) to form a coalition government.


5. (C) Starkov added that Russia considers Musharraf the
legitimate President of Pakistan. He said that the upcoming
parliamentary elections represented an opportunity for
Musharraf to increase his legitimacy, especially if the PLM-Q
did well, and expressed hope that free and fair elections
would further Pakistan's democratization efforts.

Russia Supports U.S. Role in Pakistan
--------------


6. (C) Although "too early" to assess General Kayani's
leadership of the Pakistani military, Starkov thought it a
positive factor that the General had strong ties to the U.S.
military and was among those senior Pakistani officers who
had received military training in the U.S. This experience
helped provide the officers with a broader world view, in
contrast with many of the more insular junior officers who
had only been trained in Pakistan, and contributed to the
Islamicization of the Pakistani military. Starkov commented
favorably upon Kayani's several years as head of Pakistan's
Inter Services Intelligence (ISI),and dismissed reports that
the ISI, or even rogue elements within the agency, may have
ties to Islamic extremists.


7. (C) Starkov reiterated that the GOR supported U.S.
assistance to Pakistan's fight against Islamic extremists.
However, he hoped recent press reports of the U.S.
considering unilateral action against Taliban or Al Qaeda in
Pakistan were inaccurate, stressing that such a move would
negatively impact public opinion and further weaken
Musharraf's political standing.
BURNS