RUSSIA PLEASED WITH RESULTS OF PNA LEADER ABBAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001118

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA PLEASED WITH RESULTS OF PNA LEADER ABBAS
VISIT


Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: In an April 22 meeting, MFA Middle East and
North Africa Deputy Director Ozerov positively assessed the
April 16-18 visit of PNA Leader Abbas to Moscow. Abbas
reviewed the latest developments in the Israeli-Palestinian
and Fatah-Hamas talks, stressing that there was room for
cautious optimism. Despite the obstacles, Abbas cited the
clear political will in the Israeli government, strong
international support for Abbas' leadership, prospects for
some kind of cease-fire between the GOI and Hamas, and
Fatah's more "flexible approach" to reconciliation with Hamas
as the basis for his upbeat assessment. Abbas publicly and
privately gave his unequivocal support for the Moscow
Conference, and expressed concern over the absence of an
"energetic" U.S. endorsement. Abbas agreed with Russia's
approach to the conference, stressing that a "comprehensive"
agenda was necessary and achievable. Abbas told Russia that
Olmert would not likely accept Egypt's invitation to Sharm El
Sheikh, but if he did, Abbas said he would be looking for
signals from the U.S. on its support for the conference. End
summary.

Abbas Cautiously Optimistic
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2. (C) In an April 22 meeting, MFA Middle East and North
Africa Deputy Director Oleg Ozerov told us that Russia was
"very pleased" with PNA Leader Abbas' April 16-18 visit to
Moscow. On April 17, Abbas met with Russia's Muslim
spiritual leader Ravil Gainutdin, Russian Orthodox Patriarch
Aleksey, gave remarks at MGIMO, and participated in several
press interviews. On April 18, Abbas provided Putin and FM
Lavrov with a relatively upbeat assessment of the
developments on the ground, stressing that despite remaining
disagreements between PM Olmert and himself, there was room
for "guarded optimism."


3. (C) First, Abbas underscored his and Olmert's strong
political will to maintain the momentum in the
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations initiated in Annapolis.
While concerned about a perceived hardening in Israel's
position, Abbas still believed that the GOI wanted him to
succeed as Israel's only legitimate negotiating partner.
Second, Abbas was satisfied with the strong and unwavering
level of international support for his leadership,
particularly from the U.S., Russia, and the Quartet. Abbas
told Putin and Lavrov that he looked forward to President
Bush's planned May trip to the region and was confident that
the trip would translate into further support for his
efforts. Finally, Abbas believed that the Hamas-Israeli
negotiations mediated by Egypt were moving forward, noting
that some kind of a cease-fire, even if informal and
unpublicized, was on the horizon. Ozerov commented that
Abbas in no way underestimated the daunting obstacles, but
GOR officials found Abbas considerably more optimistic than
they expected.

Abbas' More Flexible Approach to Hamas
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4. (C) When asked about Abbas' press statements indicating
that he did not support greater international recognition of
and engagement with Hamas, Ozerov acknowledged that Abbas
pressed Russia to keep the Hamas leadership at arm's
distance. However, Ozerov stressed that Abbas clearly
understood Russia's position that any agreement reached by
Olmert and Abbas would ultimately be undermined by the deep
divide in the Palestinian camp.


5. (C) Ozerov said GOR officials were "pleasantly surprised"
to hear Abbas say that there were no "insurmountable
obstacles" to political reconciliation with Hamas, provided
that the basis for such reconciliation was the 2002 Arab
Peace Initiative. Ozerov said Russia considers Abbas' "more
flexible" approach to Hamas a step in the right direction and
the ball was now in Hamas' court. Specifically, Hamas needed
to accept the Arab Peace Initiative, in addition to agreeing
to a cease-fire with Israel.


6. (C) Putin repeatedly assured the Palestinian leader that
Russia's engagement with Hamas was only directed at bringing
the group under Abbas' authority and the PNA umbrella.
Ozerov added that former President Carter's recent meeting
with the Hamas leadership underscored the importance of
dealing with all stakeholders in the region.

Moscow Conference Still on Track
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7. (C) Ozerov said Abbas made it clear that he firmly
supported Russia's planned Moscow Conference, noting that
Russia's active involvement in the peace process was
necessary and welcome. During the joint press conference
with Putin, Abbas said the conference should take place in
June, "or sooner." Moreover, Abbas expressed concern
publicly and privately that the U.S. has not "energetically"
backed the conference. Ozerov explained that Abbas "heavily
depends" on U.S. support, and without clearer signals, Abbas
is forced to question the level of U.S. enthusiasm for the
conference.


8. (C) Lavrov told Abbas he would seek consensus among the
Quartet members during their upcoming meeting in London on
the following basic elements of the conference:

-- The composition of the conference still has not been
finalized, but Russia took on board the U.S. suggestion that
the guest list represent a "compact" version of the Annapolis
guest list. That is, Hamas, and other "generally
unrecognized groups and actors" will not be invited.

-- Russia acknowledges Israeli concerns about detailed
discussions of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, but Israel
should not be opposed to a cursory discussion on the progress
achieved since Annapolis. Similarly, Russia is also
confident that a solution can be found to allay GOI concerns
about being subjected to criticism by the international
community. Ozerov said Abbas agreed that Israel's position
on these two points were not entrenched.

-- Russia insists that the agenda for the conference should
reflect the "package" of MEPP issues, including the
Israeli-Palestinian, Israeli-Syrian, Israeli-Lebanese, and
multilateral tracks. Ozerov said Russia could not understand
"Israeli wavering" on Syria's participation in the conference
and the resumption of Israeli-Syrian discussions, noting that
various aspects of this track were discussed in Annapolis.
While acknowledging Arab countries' continued reluctance to
engage on the multilateral track, Ozerov said Russia will try
to repackage the idea as a discussion on "regional
cooperation" in an effort to satisfy Israeli demands for the
conference.


9. (C) Abbas said he supported Russia's vision for the
conference and believed Israel would eventually come around
to a more "comprehensive" agenda.

Russia Questions Timing of Sharm El Sheikh Conference
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10. (C) In response to Lavrov's question about the timing of
Egypt's recently proposed conference in Sharm El Sheikh,
Abbas said he understood Olmert was not "ready" to attend the
Egyptian conference and thus doubted that the conference
would materialize. However, if Olmert decided to attend,
Ozerov stressed that Abbas -- as well as Russia -- would look
for the U.S. reaction to the Egyptian conference and for any
perceived shift in the U.S. position on the Moscow
conference. Lavrov told Abbas that Russia would not oppose
the Egyptian conference, as long as there was no attempt to
marginalize Russian diplomatic efforts.

Abbas Grateful for Russian Aid
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11. (C) Abbas expressed his gratitude for Russian financial
and humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian territories.
Putin acknowledged that the recent decision to disburse $10
million to the PNA coffers and provide the Palestinian forces
with 25 armored personnel carriers was not a "sizable" aid
package, but it underlined Russia's "political support" for
Abbas. The humanitarian aid package to Gaza was only aimed
to relieve some of the suffering, although Ozerov noted that
the GOI blockade has complicated the delivery of the aid.
BURNS