ANALYSIS: CHAREST GAINS FROM OPPOSITIONSQ STRUGGLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONTREAL 000067 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL CA SUBJECT: ANALYSIS: CHAREST GAINS FROM OPPOSITIONSQ STRUGGLES Classified By: Consul General Mary Marshall, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Quebec Premier Jean Charest received unprecedented support from his party last weekend, giving cause to predict his budget will pass without inciting a provincial election. Coupling the relative disarray of both opposition parties with the election apathy of a public literally buried in snow, Charest has successfully bounced back from the grave in time to woo citizens with an economy-centric message to stay the course. CharestQs budget needs only one opposition party to support it and there are no signs that the official opposition party, the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ),will vote against it. The Party Quebecois (PQ),however, enjoying a resurgence over the ADQ, appears to be posturing itself to turn down the budget, despite not having enough seats in Parliament to force a new election on its own. And yet, if they do unexpectedly succeed, a new election would give the PQ the opportunity to win from the ADQ the much needed financial perks afforded the official opposition party. End Summary. CHAREST ON TOP, FOR NOW -------------- ¶2. (U) With the Quebec Liberal PartyQs (PLQ) 97.23 percent confidence vote for Premier Jean CharestQs leadership last weekend in Quebec City and the expected introduction this Thursday of a budget too blasi to provoke a partnering of the PQ and ADQ against it, it appears Quebec has been spared a provincial election - for now. More than six months ago the PQ seemed to be gaining ground while Charest struggled in the polls. However, PQ and ADQ identity-centric rhetoric has failed to resound with a public desperately seeking respite from a recent series of economic hits to the health and infrastructure sectors and a general malaise regarding sovereignty. ¶3. (SBU) PQ leader Marois may be the only one disappointed by the news. According to a series of opinion polls, Marois has successfully brought her party from third to second ahead of the ADQ. One political analyst offered that the PQ might attempt to force a provincial election by rejecting the budget simply to take advantage of the relative weakness of the ADQ and Mario Dumont, and therefore, benefit structurally and financially as the official opposition party. Further, a win over the ADQ would offer the PQ renewed strength and momentum. The ADQ, on the other hand, is more likely to find common ground with Charest than risk losing to the PQ. Sources indicate that the ADQ is unprepared for an election, lacking both the internal party organization to pull one off and the necessary public support to maintain its position. According to a PLQ contact who attended last weekendQs party conference, if a deal has been made between the PLQ and the ADQ, it has been kept very close hold. The contact further added that the Liberals simply Qdid not know what the ADQ will doQ regarding the budget. PQ RENOVATES TO REGROUP -------------- ¶4. (U) PQ leader Marois announced last week a QrenovationQ of the party, namely, to win back a referendum-wary public by distancing the party from its long-standing mandate to hold a sovereignty referendum as soon as possible after forming a government, should it take power. Marois said her proposal, one of 248 resolutions up for debate at the PQ national council meeting later this month, allows the party time to convince skeptics of the benefits of sovereignty and begin what she termed a Qnational conversationQ on the issue. ¶5. (C) PQ insider and Marois advisor Jean-Francois Lisee told post that despite MaroisQ go-slow approach and current public discourse indicating withering PQ popularity, the issue of sovereignty is always relevant. In the context of Kosovo, he elaborated that a unilateral declaration of independence has always been a Plan B in the PQQs strategy, but that it has historically sought to negotiate first. He viewed the recent decline in secessionist fervor as the normal ebb phase of a recurring six-year cycle which has occurred since 1976. ¶6. (C) Montreal-based conservative party insider Ian MacDonald conversely expressed his belief to post that MaroisQ attempt to regroup during a political power lull revealed her own struggle to retain the leadership amidst general public apathy towards the party and secession whilst the partyQs secessionist stalwarts applied pressure to stay the more contentious course. PQ FAILS TO RALLY PUBLIC WITH LANGUAGE CARD MONTREAL 00000067 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (U) The key challenge to the PQ is a lack of a uniting issue. Pro-secessionists spent a large part of 2007 trying to exploit the impending loss of French language and Quebec identity and culture as a rallying cry, but were seriously undermined in December by Statistics CanadaQs report that although the francophone community had slipped below 80% province-wide for the first time, French itself had actually increased in usage, with one recently released statistic claiming that 90% of Quebecois used French as their primary language at work. Further, the report stated that more Allophones were choosing French over English as their second language, and in fact, more Anglophones than ever were bilingual. ¶8. (SBU) Marois had attempted in October to exploit the language issue to gain support by submitting a controversial bill that said the ability to speak French should be prerequisite to the right to vote in Quebec. (Note: Many opinion leaders have expressed their belief to post that her intention was more to cater to internal party politics than to garner voters.) In fact, the issue may have sparked the sudden resurgence in public approval of the PQ by December, but it wasnQt enough to predict a win over Charest. ADQ: POLITICAL WILDCARD -------------- ¶9. (SBU) ADQ leader Mario Dumont has been notably quiet the past few weeks, leaving many, including the other parties, to speculate on whether the ADQ will support the budget. One PLQ contact told post that conversations at the PLQ national caucus were peppered with speculation on where the ADQ stood. Dumont did enter the public debate last week to challenge MaroisQ calls to renovate the PQ, accusing her of stealing ADQ platforms for autonomy, such as calling for the creation of a Quebec constitution. Dumont said it was insulting for Marois to suggest there were still stones unturned on QuebecQs secession debate after forty years of public discourse and a referendum. ¶10. (SBU) This would not be the first time the PQ has adopted ADQ issues. Last year, the ADQ made the racially heated issue of Qreasonable accommodationQ interchangeable with QuebecQs struggle for identity, only to have the PQ hijack the cause by turning it into another fight over the survival of the French language. Charest deftly took the bite out of the issue by establishing the Bouchard-Taylor Commission to make a formal study of reasonable accommodation, including holding numerous town hall meetings where the public aired their frustrations on immigration and racial intolerance. By the end of the year, the public was tired of discussing identity issues Q resulting in an unexpected upsurge in support for the economy-focused PLQ and a decided disinterest in another election. ¶11. (U) Ironically, MaroisQ calls to renovate the party came the same day the Bouchard-Taylor Commission announced a two-month publishing delay of the report from March 31 to May 31. Independent reports of the Bouchard-Taylor CommissionQs town hall meetings revealed very little contention (but much hype) and a great deal of community concurrence on the need for inter-ethnic tolerance. COMMENT: WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CANADA -------------- ¶12. (C) Quebec Premier Jean Charest and his new budget should be the clear winner of this weekQs provincial party showdown, unless an unlikely and well-guarded alliance has been made between the Party Quebecois (PQ) and Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ). If CharestQs budget is as non-controversial as he insists, the ADQ would have no reason to join with the PQ and prompt an election where they would most likely lose official opposition party status to the PQ. ¶13. (C) For Prime Minister Harper, CharestQs successful side-stepping of another election has reconfirmed his position as the 'go-to' man for Quebec. As long as the province suffers economically, he will hold enough public support to keep his government intact. Ironically, however, if Quebec can recover from a recent spate of bad press over poor health care, slow snow removal efforts, and other infrastructure related incompetence, the public might renew its interest in the PQQs fight to preserve Quebecois identity. MARSHALL