FRENTE AMPLIO CONGRESS FAILS TO CHOOSE OFFICIAL

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000704 SIPDIS WHA/BSC FOR MARY DASCHBACH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL UY SUBJECT: FRENTE AMPLIO CONGRESS FAILS TO CHOOSE OFFICIAL CANDIDATE REF: MONTEVIDEO 679 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The December 13-14 Frente Amplio (FA) party congress designated Former Agriculture Minister and ex-Tupamaro guerrilla, Jose Mujica, as the coalition's official nominee, while still allowing the remaining candidates to compete in internal elections (primaries) in June. The Congress also finalized the FA's campaign platform, which took a turn to the left (with a tinge of Anti-Americanism),but not as radically as many stalwarts had hoped. President Vazquez's favored successor, former Minister of the Economy Danilo Astori, suffered a serious blow in the process, coming in third in the weekend voting, and the platform debate illustrated the Frente faithful,s discomfort with Vazquez's pragmatic, centrist policies. We continue to hear doubts about whether the weathered, folksy Mujica, with his violent past, will be a competitive candidate in general elections; however, political analysts and pollsters currently show him in the lead for the Frente Amplio primaries and in the autumn,s general elections. End Summary. Mujica wins the endorsement, but not the candidacy -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) About 2,400 delegates from over 40 parties attended the congress on December 13-14. The designation of Jose Mujica as the official nominee with 71% of the votes was the highlight of the event. In the past, the FA has been able to avoid internal elections by agreeing on a candidate during the congress, but this year, the winner of the congress's election will only receive an endorsement by the coalition, not an official candidacy. Five candidates competed for the endorsement and received the following levels of support: Jose Mujica (71%),Marcos Carambula (43%),Danilo Astori (24%),Daniel Martinez (22%),and Enrique Rubio (17%). Note: Delegates can vote for more than one candidate. End note. The final decision will be made in FA internal elections in late June. The candidate will then select his vice presidential running mate (reftel). ¶3. (U) Background: During the last presidential elections in 2004, both of the two traditional parties, the Colorados and the Blancos, were facing massive unpopularity after the 2002 economic crisis. This led to an overwhelming victory for the FA, including a majority in both houses of Parliament. This year's elections are unlikely to be as clean-cut, and the inability of the FA to choose a candidate in its congress is evidence of that (the Frente traditionally tries to avoid internal elections). Whichever party wins the general elections is unlikely to enjoy a majority in the legislative branch. Marcos Carambula enters the ring -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Mujica forged a strong majority in the FA Congress by ensuring close coordination between his MPP faction and the Communist Party. Current polls show him with a strong lead in the June primaries, but a Mujica victory in the general elections is far from certain. Some fear that the same qualities that bolster his popularity (frankness, effective and frequent use of local slang, brazenness) will make him an ineffective, and even embarrassing, representative of Uruguay on the world stage. Long time Presidential hopeful, Danilo Astori, is widely expected to run in the primaries, but the third place showing after Marcos Carambula (governor of Uruguay,s second largest department) was a serious blow. Carambula is a medical doctor and long-time, popular politician with support from the Communist Party, who may be viewed as a good vice presidential candidate. Minister of Industry and Energy Daniel Martinez (who surprisingly won the support of the Socialist Party earlier in December) and Minister of Planning Enrique Rubio have not yet announced if they will continue their campaigns. The Campaign Platform - The Most Radical Proposals Blocked -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Deliberations over the Frente Amplio coalition's campaign platform were extensive and heated. Many of the most radical proposed campaign positions were moderated, as the delegates (led by Minister of the Interior Daisy Tourne) decided to give their eventual candidate as much leeway as possible. The FA platform includes a statement opposing the signing of a free trade agreement with the U.S. that is "similar to that of Peru and Colombia," toning down the original language that banned any sort of trade agreement with the U.S. Similarly, the Congress voted to seek the gradual removal of troops from Haiti over time, rather than removal of all Uruguayan troops from peacekeeping missions. Instead of banning all foreign investment, the Congress voted to oppose foreign purchases of land. The platform also calls for legalization of abortion; the creation of a Ministry of Justice; electoral reform; and a referendum on the repeal of the law on amnesty for perpetrators of abuses during the military dictatorship of 1973-1985. The platform also includes a provision criticizing activity in Uruguay by the U.S. military, although the very next day the Frente Amplio Minister of Health presided over an event celebrating the construction of the Santa Catalina clinic (a significant project planned and developed by Embassy Montevideo,s Office of Defense Cooperation). Comment -------------- ¶6. Although there will still be a primary race, the FA Congress's vote in favor of Mujica gives him a significant edge. The need for internal elections is also an indication of the growing schisms in the Frente Amplio coalition. President Vazquez's veto of the FA-supported bill to legalize abortion, his subsequent resignation from the Socialist Party, and the failure of the FA to support his favored candidate is further proof of the increasing divide. Despite its incumbency and popularity, the FA's difficulty in presenting a unified front will likely serve to weaken it in general elections. End Comment. Matthewman