URUGUAYAN ELECTION PRIMER

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000679 SIPDIS FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV UY SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTION PRIMER ¶1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not for Internet distribution. Summary - - - - ¶2. (SBU) Uruguay will hold presidential elections in October 2009, and its campaign season has begun. This cable offers a brief explanation of the electoral process and introduces the likely candidates. Detailed information about specific positions on issues of possible interest to the U.S. of the major parties and their candidates will be provided septels. End Summary. The Basics: Parties and Process - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) There are three principal political parties or movements in Uruguay: the ruling Frente Amplio (FA),which is a coalition of political parties of the left; the National (Blanco) Party; and the Colorado Party. The Blancos and Colorados are Uruguay's two traditional parties. Both were founded in the early 19th century, and are among the oldest political parties in the world. Throughout most of Uruguay's history, those two parties garnered about 90 percent of the vote, with the Colorados usually in power and Blancos as the traditional opposition. That dominance was challenged with the founding of the FA coalition in 1971. The status quo was further unsettled after a severe economic crisis early in this century, which occurred under a Colorado president and resulted in that party being relegated to Uruguay's political wilderness. There is also an Independent Party that polls at only 1-2 percent, but which is a possible factor in the 2009 elections. ¶4. (U) While all three major political organizations espouse a strong state role, each occupies its own political niche. Over twenty parties ranging from moderate socialists to extreme left-wing radical groups comprise the FA coalition. During the military dictatorship of 1973-85, the FA was banned from political activity, and many early party members were either killed, imprisoned or forced to live in exile. The Blancos are generally thought of as Uruguay's conservatives, with a center-right orientation and strong rural representation. Colorados traditionally supported a strong social safety net and state ownership of major industries, although the last three Colorado administrations opened the economy to foreign investment and privatized some state-controlled enterprises. ¶5. (U) National Elections are held every five years on the �00A;last Sunday in October, so the next elections will take place October 25, 2009. At that time, the president and vice president, plus all members of both houses of Uruguay's bicameral General Assembly (a total of thirty senators and 99 deputies) are elected. In the interim, there will be an election in June 2009 -- roughly equivalent to a one-day distillation of the U.S. primary process -- that will determine the selection of presidential candidates from the Blanco and Colorado parties. The FA has traditionally been able to come to consensus on its presidential candidate via internal deliberations and without utilizing the primary election process, although it is unclear whether that will be the case during this election cycle. Several coalition gatherings in December 2008, including the FA's National Congress December 13-14, might clarify the composition of the FA ticket for 2009. ¶6. (U) To win the presidency, a candidate must obtain a simple majority of the votes cast. If no candidate does so in the October elections, the top two vote-getters go head-to-head in another election a month later, on the last Sunday in November. Voting is obligatory for Uruguayans over age eighteen. During Uruguay's last presidential elections in 2004, the FA won in the first round with 50.7 percent of the vote, followed by the Blancos with 34.1 percent and the Colorados with 10.3 percent. However, polling indicates that there will likely be a second round between the FA and Blanco candidates in November 2009. Who's Who - Candidates - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Principal candidates for the upcoming elections have emerged, and most are already fully engaged in their campaigns. Frente Amplio Coalition -------------- The fight for the FA's presidential nomination has focused on two candidates, Danilo Astori and Jose Mujica. Minister of Industry, Energy, and Mining Daniel Martinez is emerging as a dark horse. - Danilo Astori: He did an admirable job as Economy and Finance Minister in the first years of the Vazquez government, but is now identified with sweeping tax reform that includes the imposition of an income tax highly unpopular with the middle class. Astori has been a leading proponent of deepening economic ties with the U.S. President Vazquez has supported Astori's candidacy. - Jose Mujica: Senator Jose Mujica is a former Tupamaro guerrilla and the leader of the leftist Movimiento de Participacion Popular (MPP). His populist message has made him a favorite within the Frente Amplio. However, Mujica's history makes some analysts question his electability in general elections. - Daniel Martinez: Minister Martinez has a decent record in his ministry and as a manager elsewhere (he headed Uruguay's state-owned energy company ANCAP),and he has solid leftist credentials. He does not carry the political baggage of the two frontrunners, and so could possibly be chosen as a compromise candidate. Several others have been mentioned as presidential or vice presidential hopefuls, including Marcos Carambula, Intendente (administrator) of Uruguay's second-most populous department; and Enrique Rubio, director of Uruguay's planning and budget office. National (Blanco) Party -------------- - Jorge Larranaga: Senator Jorge Larranaga is the former administrator of one of Uruguay's larger provinces, Paysandu. He represents the center/left movement within the party, which emphasizes a strong state. He recently stepped down from his post as head of the party. -Luis Alberto Lacalle Herrera: Senator Lacalle is a lawyer, rancher, former President of the Republic (1990-95), former Congressman (1972-73),and Senator (1984-89). His faction is considered to the right of Larranaga's on the political spectrum, but he himself employs a centrist message. Colorado Party -------------- - Pedro Bordaberry: Bordaberry, son of former President of the Republic Juan Maria Bordaberry (1972-77),is the current Colorado Party frontrunner. He is regarded as dynamic and hard working. During this election cycle, however, he has little chance of overcoming the association with his father, whose presidency led to the military dictatorship of 1973-85. Still, Colorados hope his dynamism may serve to increase the size of the vote (and consequent Parliamentary representation) of his party. Vazquez Re-election Movement - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (U) President Vazquez remains the most popular politician in Uruguay, so the possibility that he will seek reelection has therefore been the subject of much interest and speculation. Vazquez has stated publicly with consistency that he is not considering re-election, although there have been occasions -- both public and private -- in which he has been more ambiguous about any re-election plans. At first glance, the idea seems moot, as Uruguay's constitution limits presidents to a single consecutive term, although there is no limit on multiple, non-consecutive terms. ¶9. (U) Some Vazquez supporters, undaunted by the constitutional prohibition of consecutive presidential terms, are exploring ways to keep Vazquez as president. There are basically three paths to amend Uruguay's constitution; all would require a national plebiscite to approve a proposed change. The first option is via a Popular Initiative, which in Uruguay requires petitions containing signatures of ten percent of citizens entitled to vote. Collection of signatures is ongoing. The second option would be for an absolute majority of Uruguay's bicameral General Assembly to call for a national constitutional convention. This would be a long and controversial process with uncertain effects on Uruguay's constitution, and is therefore not considered a likely option. Finally, Uruguay's General Assembly could vote for the constitutional change via approval by two-thirds of each house of the legislature (21 senators and 66 deputies would have to vote in favor),also considered unlikely. That a Vazquez reelection is a long shot did not stop four members of Vazquez's cabinet, including putative FA candidate Daniel Martinez, from publicly endorsing the idea. Representatives of the reelection movement have said that they will proceed until Vazquez directs them to stop, which has yet to happen. Comment: A Strong Base for the Bilateral Relationship - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (SBU) While we hope that whomever emerges as Uruguay's next president will want to work productively with the U.S., it is too early to tell whether some of the current candidates would make a constructive bilateral relationship a priority. What we do know is that the next president will inherit a stronger and institutionally deeper partnership than did Vazquez when he entered office. The steps forward we have taken in areas such as trade, education, science and technology, and counter-narcotics cooperation have resulted in over 55 percent of Uruguayans having a positive image of the U.S., up from 36 percent in 2003. That circumstance alone should go far in maintaining the generally positive course of the bilateral relationship. Matthewman