PAN AND PRI TEST MEXICO'S NEW ELECTION REFORM LAWS IN NUEVO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONTERREY 000559 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX SUBJECT: PAN AND PRI TEST MEXICO'S NEW ELECTION REFORM LAWS IN NUEVO LEON REF: MONTERREY 172 MONTERREY 00000559 001.2 OF 003 Summary ¶1. (U) Summary. Nuevo Leon is the largest of the six Mexican states holding gubernatorial elections in 2009 and will be the first major test of the federal electoral reform passed in November 2007. The race will also be an important measure of the relative strength of the national PAN and PRI parties as the PAN is eager to recapture a governorship it lost to the PRI in ¶2003. Improving the deteriorating security situation in Nuevo Leon will be the leading election issue and the election potentially will be a referendum on President Calderon's administration. End Summary. The New Election Process ¶2. (U) As the first step in the new election process, the PAN and PRI released their guidelines for choosing their candidates for governor. The PAN party decided to use a closed state party election and the PRI decided to use an open state primary. Neither party chose to use `el dedazo' or direct designation of a candidate. The PRD has a negligible presence in Nuevo Leon and has not announced how it will choose a candidate. ¶3. (SBU) The state PAN party leadership voted 40 to 20 to use a closed election process instead of an open election process. The PAN reasoned that a closed election would avoid the influence of the PRI party in their internal affairs. The State PAN President, Juan Carlos Ruiz, also privately said to Poloff that the possibility of drug cartels influencing voters is higher with an open election and a closed nomination process will produce a "clean" candidate. In addition, some political observers think that a closed primary was chosen by the PAN to lessen the chances of nominating the current mayor of Monterrey, Adalberto Madero, as the PAN candidate for Governor. Madero is seen as a populist, and has been hounded by allegations of corruption, but he led the most recent statewide poll. Those that supported open elections, including the PAN National President, German Martinez, claimed that the closed election process lends itself to backroom dealing between party members and is not in the best interests of the public. The national PAN party still has the power to reverse the decision of the Nuevo Leon PAN party. �00A; ¶4. (U) After the PAN decision to opt for a closed selection process, the state PRI leadership unanimously decided to have an open primary to elect their candidate. At the PRI press conference, party leaders contrasted their decision to the PAN's decision and portrayed their party as the more democratic of the two. In choosing an open primary, PRI leaders pointed out that the current PRI governor of Nuevo Leon Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras was elected using an open primary and won the general election in spite of the PRI's losses in the state legislature. ¶5. (U) Now that the process for determining candidates has been decided, the election reform laws set shortened primary and general campaign dates. Candidates will have until January 14, 2009 to formally submit their names for selection. The primary period will run from January 15 to March 15. The general election campaign will be held between March 16 to July ¶4. The election is scheduled for July 5 and the governor-elect will take office October 5. ¶6. (SBU) With the new election laws, campaign expenditures as well as the number of TV and radio commercials are controlled. For the 2009 election, the PAN and PRI parties are each allowed to spend nearly US$500,000 during the primary season and nearly US$2.5 million during the general election. The amount of TV or radio airtime allowed is determined by a formula issued by the Federal Election Committee (IFE). The first 30% of all airtime is divided equally among all of the recognized parties and the remaining 70% is determined by percentage of votes won in the previous election cycle. Political parties do not have specific limits for print or MONTERREY 00000559 002.2 OF 003 internet advertising. Other interest groups such as private businesses, universities or trade unions are not allowed to purchase campaign advertisements. According to Eduardo Guerra, President of the Nuevo Leon State Electoral Commission (CEE), the political parties are complying with the advertising limits. Unlike in previous elections, the state election commission now has the power to remove candidates if they break election laws. Note. There are several allegations that Mayor Madero began his pre-campaign months before the permitted time, but the CEE continues to investigate the case and hopes to have a decision before the primary elections. End Note. ¶7. (SBU) The influence of organized crime is another risk to the campaigns. Guerra says to prevent the entry of illicit money in political campaigns, the CEE is authorized to audit the financial records of the political parties and political campaigns before, during, and after the elections, including their bank accounts. To prevent voter intimidation, the CEE is training election monitors for each polling station and coordinating with the national army and state and federal police to provide security for polling stations the day of the elections. However, as the CEE does not monitor the candidates' personal bank accounts or properties, it would not know if narco-traffickers bribed the candidate but did not contribute to the campaign. Election Issues ¶8. (SBU) Security and the economy are the main issues in the upcoming elections. In a December 3 poll by Monterrey's Milenio newspaper, 71% of respondents cited security as the number one issue and 16% of respondents cited the economic crisis or employment as the most important issue. Ideologically in Nuevo Leon, the PAN and PRI are both very similar. The candidates Poloffs have talked to all agree that security followed by the economy are the main issues for the elections. The candidates have similar plans to improve security by increasing police presence, stamping out corruption and increasing cooperation among security forces. Eloy Cantu, a current candidate and longtime PRI politician, believes the election will be determined by the candidate that can demonstrate the best leadership. Rodrigo Medina, also a PRI candidate, agrees and adds that up to 40% of voters in Nuevo Leon are undecided until Election Day so personality will be very important. Leading PAN Candidates ¶9. (SBU) Fernando Larrazabal is currently a local congressman and is reportedly favored to win the PAN nomination. Larrazabal is helped by the closed primary system since he has the backing of the majority of party members, including two mayors from the Metro Monterrey area and many of his fellow PAN congressmen. Larrazabal was formerly a mayor of San Nicolas and is popular with working class voters. Some of his opponents charge that in the past he has not been fully transparent on financial matters. ¶10. (SBU) Fernando Elizondo is currently a federal senator and a former interim governor of Nuevo Leon. Elizondo was interim governor from March 2002 to January 2003 when the then governor took a cabinet position in the Calderon administration. The senator comes from a prominent Monterrey family and has been very critical of the current governor of Nuevo Leon in terms of fiscal responsibility and security. Elizondo is a pragmatic leader and very well respected by his peers. Elizondo is also a former energy secretary and therefore very familiar with energy issues. Elizondo believes very strongly in working with the United States to address common issues such as border security, energy, immigration and trade. However because of the closed primary, Elizondo will have a difficult time winning as party's nomination since he lacks the state PAN member support of Larrazabel. However, Elizondo does have PAN leadership support on the national level and he is hoping that the national PAN party intervenes to assist his candidacy. MONTERREY 00000559 003.2 OF 003 ¶11. (SBU) A possible spoiler candidate is Fernando Margain. Margain is currently the mayor of San Pedro, an affluent city in the metro Monterrey area, and a former Federal Senator. Margain is seen as a very intelligent and strong politician and is a credited for his very capable administration of San Pedro. Margain is especially praised for making the San Pedro police force the most respected of all the regional police forces. Margain has the support of the business community and could possibly be a compromise candidate should the Larrazabel and Elizondo forces deadlock. ¶12. (SBU) The current Mayor of Monterrey Adalberto Madero is also a contender because of his appeal to working class voters. In the latest statewide poll taken by El Norte, Madero has a 10 percentage point lead in popularity over the other candidates. Madero also beat the leading PRI candidate Abel Guerra for Mayor of Monterrey in 2006. However, because of the PAN's closed election system Madero is not favored to win. Party leaders feel that the corruption charges against Madero may damage the party. Some prominent members of the Monterrey business community have accused Madero's administration of `corruption without limit.' Leading PRI Candidates ¶13. (SBU) Abel Guerra is currently the most popular of the PRI candidates and has enough PRI party member support to win the PRI nomination. Guerra has been previously both a federal and state congressman and is presently the Nuevo Leon State Public Works Chief. Seen as an `Old Line' PRI member, Guerra is especially popular with the lower classes in Nuevo Leon but will have trouble winning over the support of the middle and upper classes. ¶14. (SBU) The other leading PRI candidate is Rodrigo Medina, the current Secretary General for Nuevo Leon and former federal congressman. Medina is 36 years old and will likely appeal to younger voters who make up over 60% of the electorate. Medina has the support of Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras, and the Governor often asks Medina to represent him before key PRI constituencies such as labor unions. Gonzalez Paras invited Medina to join his cabinet in 2007 when Medina was a federal congressman and has been grooming him ever since. One of the governor's advisors told Poloff that Medina also has the support of media outlet Televisa and could gain the support of TV Azteca. Despite these advantages, as Medina is little known among the general public and he does not appear to have the support of the majority of PRI party members, it will be difficult to win because of the shortened election cycle and spending limits. It remains to be seen if the Governor's popularity will carry Medina. While the governor still enjoys a 62% approval rating, it is down from 82% three years ago. Comments ¶15. (SBU) Comment. The gubernatorial election will be closely watched on a national level as a test of the federal election reforms and their impact on the national PAN and PRI parties. The Nuevo Leon election law favors well known parties and candidates, since underdog candidates and parties have little time and few media spots to overcome more established candidates and parties. Politically, the PAN and PRI potentially will use the election as a referendum on President Calderon. The PRI party claims poor implementation of Calderon's policies has led to the deterioration of the security situation. The economic crisis is not now as important in voters' minds as the security situation but it is a growing concern that could eventually shape the election. However, for the most part, the effects of layoffs and tightening credit associated with the crisis will not be felt until next year. Neither of the two major parties have specific plans on how to deal with the crisis but how they position themselves with the middle and working classes will be an example for the rest of the country. End Comment. WILLIAMSON