LIBERIA: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/AGRICULTURAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MONROVIA 000325 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP JANET SPECK USDA FAS OFFICE OF GLOBAL ANALYSIS AND FOR FAS/RON VERDONK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EAID ETRD EFIN PGOV PREL ECON LI SUBJECT: LIBERIA: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES REF: A. A)SECSTATE 39410 ¶B. C) 07 MONROVIA 1070 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Over 60% of Liberians are estimated to live below the poverty line and price increases hit hard. Liberia is heavily reliant on imported food, of which rice is the most important. Imported rice supplies over half of domestic consumption and prices at the retail level are up as much as 50% in the past year. President Sirleaf has announced GOL initiatives to mitigate the price increases, but told Liberians the higher prices are likely to last a while and they should "return to the land." There are sufficient rice stocks to supply the market through August. ¶2. (SBU) Post programs should continue to focus on supporting the GOL's poverty reduction initiatives, boosting incomes, rebuilding infrastructure and encouraging agriculture. In addition to steps already taken or proposed by the GOL, relaxation of monopolistic import and distribution systems for sensitive items could increase availability. (Note: Reliable data on production, supply, and demand are not available. Much of the information in this report is based on local industry estimates, recent surveys, or anecdotal reports. All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. End note.) A list of prices for comparison purposes is at paragraph 19. End Summary DEMAND: Rice is what counts -------------- ¶3. (U) Liberia imports most major food commodities, including rice, the staple food. The primary alternative is cassava, most of which is locally grown or imported from neighboring countries. Fifty eight percent of domestically consumed rice is imported, rising to 92% imported rice in urban households. USDA reports that rice imports come to 160,000 metric tons annually (mostly from Asia). The retail price of a 50 kg bag of the most popular variety of rice rose from $25-30 to $30-35 in the past two months. The price has increased 13% at the wholesale level over the past year, but up to 50% at the retail level, according to monitoring by the World Food Program and Embassy staff. (Note: The official ceiling on rice prices, set by the Ministry of Commerce, is $26-28 per bag. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) Even before the food price increases, hunger was prevalent in Liberia. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment carried out in early 2006 found 81% of the population either highly or moderately vulnerable to food insecurity. According to the Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ) conducted in 2007, almost 64% of Liberians, an estimated 1.7 million, live below the poverty line. The World Bank notes that a 20% increase in the price of rice correlates with a 3-4% increase in the share of the population in poverty. The amount spent on rice imports has surged over the past two years, rising from $17 million in 2005 to $65 million in 2007, according to Central Bank figures. By value, total imports of food, animals and vegetable oil almost doubled over the same period, from $71 million to $130 million. For example, USDA reports the wholesale price of powdered milk has doubled to $4,000 per ton. With a majority of Liberians living below the poverty line, the perceived dependence on rice cre ates pressure on food security and on the government. ¶5. (SBU) The GOL is feeling the pressure. President Sirleaf, in an April 14 radio address, described initiatives to tackle the price increases, but explained that rising prices are an international trend, due in part to demand from larger countries and diversion of traditional food products to biofuel. She made several concrete concessions, announcing removal of the $2/bag tax on rice. She also referred to plans for a Chinese agricultural team to start training in production of large-scale mechanized rice production and announced that the GOL is studying the possibility of offering public land to those who are willing to go to their communities and engage in farming. That said, Liberia has food, and can grow more, but it is poorly distributed. Agricultural markets have been distorted and farmers do not have incentives to produce beyond the subsistence level. ¶6. (U) Noting that "the increase in food prices will be with us for a long time to come," President Sirleaf called on Liberians to grow rice, cassava and plantains. Her urging, and her example of growing rice at her own home, have not MONROVIA 00000325 002 OF 004 seemed to persuade Monrovians. The high prices should support GOL efforts for Liberians to return to the land, start farming, and reduce dependence on imported food. That trend may be further encouraged by the GOL's (unrelated) renewed enforcement of property tax collection, which will encourage productive use of land. ¶7. (U) The increase in gasoline prices has been a contributing factor, with particular impact on rural areas where fuel prices not only increase the cost of transport and other inputs, but reduce the number of vehicles plying the route. The border with Guinea appears to be particularly volatile. We have heard the Ministry of Commerce has not been able to enforce restrictions on transporting gasoline, cement and rice (and more recently palm oil) into Guinea where prices are higher. SUPPLY: Getting the food where the people are -------------- ¶8. (SBU) GOL and industry sources tell us there is sufficient rice on hand to last until about August, and there are reasons for optimism. Ministry of Agriculture crop yield analysis forecast a good harvest. There is now evidence yet that farmers have responded, but to encourage domestic investment, the GOL has been providing technical services and free inputs, such as seeds, tools, and fertilizer, directly and via NGOs. (This included 300 mt of seed rice.) The GOL has also put priority on rehabilitating damaged agricultural infrastructure, and there are plans for a $30 million investment in large-scale commercial rice production. ¶9. (U) The inadequate infrastructure is a major impediment to exports and domestic trade. Essential components include roads, warehouses and market facilities, all of which are high priorities under the GOL's Poverty Reduction Strategy. The USG and other donors are undertaking supply chain analysis of the full range of factors restricting transport of food. Liberia's land tenure system was inequitable before the war and conflicts over land ownership have been exacerbated by destruction of deeds and other land records and by fraudulent sales during the social disruption. The difficulty in confirming ownership hampers long-term investment and access to credit. POLITICAL IMPACT: Remembering 1979 -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Despite the increasing price pressure, Liberia has not experienced public protests or violence and Liberians we talk to consistently say the memories of the aftermath of the 1979 rice riots are still too fresh for violence to be an appealing option. However, they also note that the frustration engendered by rising prices could inflame a demonstration triggered by another cause. ECONOMIC IMPACT: What is due to price increases? -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) It is difficult to tease out the impact of increasing prices from the influence of overall economic growth as macroeconomic data are limited. The trade deficit increased 75% from 2005 to 2007, but most of that increase was from 2005-2006 rather than in the past year. Although food and fuel account for most of the growth in the value of imports (with solid contributions from machinery, transport equipment and manufactured products),the timing indicates the increase was due in large part to higher demand related to the overall economic recovery. The increasing price of rubber, which accounts for $171 million of the total $184 million in exports, has buffered impact on the trade balance. ¶12. (U) Liberia's traditional exports -- minerals, timber and tree crops in addition to rubber latex -- would have provided solid revenue had the sectors been producing. However, tree crops, including rubber, will not resume peak production until new trees reach maturity, in approximately five years. Although UN timber sanctions were removed in 2006, exports have not yet resumed. There are increasing investments in mining but those, too, are several years from producing export revenue. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: Lots of land, lots of water -------------- -------------- ¶13. (U) With low population density, ample rainfall and MONROVIA 00000325 003 OF 004 almost no mechanization, the environmental impact has been minimal. Food is easy to grow, with cassava and other tubers, tropical fruits and fish readily available much of the year. Of greater environmental concern is damage from the concentration of population in Monrovia, which far exceeds capacity of the city's infrastructure. The President's call for Liberians to return to the land may have the additional benefit of encouraging some of those who sought refuge in the capital during the war to return to rural areas. GOVERNMENT POLICY RESPONSE: All we need is subsidized rice -------------- -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Rice is designated a "sensitive" commodity and has a volatile history. It has long been subject to GOL efforts to manipulate price and supply, which has led to periodic shortages, hoarding and rent-seeking. The GOL is still trying various strategies to break the perceived control of the rice market by Lebanese importers but so far the cure (giving a monopoly on imports to a Liberian firm) has not worked and recently the restriction on the former importers has been relaxed. ¶15. (U) The Poverty Reduction Strategy calls for expanding agricultural production by at least 3.6% a year in 2009 and ¶2010. Agriculture and fisheries account for an estimated 42% of GDP and are considered the sectors most likely to show growth quickly. The GOL is directly supporting inputs such as seeds and fertilizer (targeting the neediest),and has provided 300 mt of seed rice to farmers. To improve food security, the GOL intends to rebuild roads and storage facilities, and develop a targeted social safety net. IMPACT ON POST PROGRAMS: Stay the course -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Post's programs are focused on supporting the GOL's poverty reduction programs, boosting incomes, rebuilding infrastructure such as farm-to-market roads, and encouraging agriculture. The increase in prices confirms the validity of those choices and may, in fact, support our goals by increasing the incentive to return to the land. A rising frustration among Liberians at the slow pace of progress reinforces the need for the USG (and the GOL) to continue to focus on tangible projects with immediate benefit and to be effective in publicizing those successes. The USG, in partnership with the GOL and private sector, should continue to support market development as a key step toward staple food self reliance. POLICY PROPOSALS: What Next? -------------- ¶17. (SBU) While responding to the needs of vulnerable populations and compensating for the damage and disruption of the war in the short-term, the GOL should continue its initiatives to make the business climate more inviting and remove or reduce barriers to trade. The growing economy provides some breathing room for emergency response, and the rising prices support ongoing policies of increasing agricultural production and encouraging population growth outside Monrovia. Comment -------------- ¶18. (SBU) Liberia is a very fertile country, with great potential to expand agricultural production, even in the short term. The GOL is working with donors and looking ahead to take steps to mitigate fallout from the rising prices. While Liberians are unlikely to face starvation in the absence of conflict, rice is a sensitive commodity. For many Liberians, cheap, readily available rice is the main measure of the government's effectiveness. ¶19. (U) Prices -------------- Following, for comparison purposes, are some standard prices: 50 kg imported rice: $30-35 "butter rice;" from $20 in 12/2007 $40-50 par-boiled; from $40 in 12/2007 50 kg domestic rice: $17 (L$245) 50 kg flour: $30-45 50 kg bag of potatoes: $10-15 MONROVIA 00000325 004 OF 004 1 gallon gasoline: $4 3-gallon vegetable oil $30 1 gallon palm oil $3-5 ROBINSON