THIRD 2008 ENTREPRENEURS' PROTEST NO CHARM

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000090

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV ECON PINR BO
SUBJECT: THIRD 2008 ENTREPRENEURS' PROTEST NO CHARM

REF: A. MINSK 042

B. MINSK 063

C. MINSK 017

D. MINSK 030

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) The two main organizers promoting Belarusian
entrepreneurs' protests recently split over whether to
support a demonstration on February 18. In any case, neither
figure foresees the government compromising in the near term.
While the regime appears willing to allow the leaders and
their organizations to exist, the GOB may still employ
repression in the run up to February 18 to ensure that the
protest stays small. End summary.

Perspektiva NGO Opts Out of Upcoming Protest
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2. (C) On February 6, the leader of the NGO "Perspektiva,"
Anatoliy Shumchenko, confirmed to Deputy Pol/Econ Chief that
his organization will not support calls for entrepreneurs to
demonstrate on October Square in central Minsk February 18.
Shumchenko said he based his decision on concerns over a
reduced turnout and fears that authorities would once again
forcibly disperse protestors. Perspektiva would instead ask
entrepreneurs and their supporters to join the opposition's
traditional march on the March 25 anniversary of the founding
of the Belarusian National Republic in 1918.

Competitor Carries on with Plans for February 18
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3. (C) In contrast, the leader of the campaign "For Free
Development of Entrepreneurship" Viktor Gorbachev said he and
his supporters would turn out on February 18, as well as
March 25. He participated in a February 7 press conference
to draw attention to the upcoming event. Gorbachev seemed
unconcerned by Shumchenko's decision, and told Deputy
Pol/Econ Chief that "For Free Development of
Entrepreneurship" recruited 95 percent of those at the last
protest (ref A).

Compromise Not Near at Hand
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4. (C) While disagreeing on tactics, both Gorbachev and
Shumchenko thought that the GOB would not back down on
Presidential Order 760 in the near term. Gorbachev thought
the government would wait until closer to the summer to make
concessions so that the public would not draw the conclusion
that the protests produced a positive result.

Pressure on Leaders Down, but Middle Ranks Still at Risk
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5. (C) Shumchenko said that authorities said they made a
mistake earlier when they threatened to close down
Perspektiva. Gorbachev also stated that the regime moderated
its stance toward him. He says he received official
notification of an event billed as dialogue between the
regime and small- and medium-sized businesses (ref B),and
was allowed to send a representative. He complained,
however, that jail time after the last demonstrations meant
financial hardship for regional representatives. He also
feared two or three participants from the last demonstration
might face criminal charges in order to intimidate potential
participants in the February 18 protest.

Comment: Early Elements of Successful Protests Fading Fast
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6. (C) The surprising success of the initial entrepreneurs'
demonstration this year (refs C and D) rested upon uncommon
cooperation among rival organizers of entrepreneurs, real
hopes the regime would seek to compromise and spreading
information on the protests by word of mouth in markets.
Unfortunately, it appears unlikely these factors will once
again come together by February 18.
STEWART