Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08MINSK8
2008-01-03 16:02:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
BELARUSIANS' FEAR OVER ECONOMY GROWS
how-toVZCZCXRO4043 PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHSK #0008/01 0031602 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 031602Z JAN 08 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6783 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0375 RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1782 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000008
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIANS' FEAR OVER ECONOMY GROWS
REF: A. 07 Minsk 846
B. 07 Minsk 1012
Summary
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000008
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIANS' FEAR OVER ECONOMY GROWS
REF: A. 07 Minsk 846
B. 07 Minsk 1012
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) According to independent nationwide polling data from
December 2007, public opinion on the state of the Belarusian economy
has become decidedly pessimistic. Eighty-five per cent of
respondents identified price hikes as one of the most serious
problems facing the country, while the portion of respondents who
said their family's economic position worsened in the past three
months doubled. In other significant changes, Aleksandr
Lukashenko's popularity continued a slow, steady decline, while
attitudes toward the EU improved. End summary.
Price Increases on the Minds of Average Belarusians
-------------- --------------
2. (SBU) Minsk's Independent Institute for Social, Economic and
Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted its most recent nationwide
public opinion poll in December 2007, with a sample size of roughly
1500 respondents and a margin of error of three percentage points.
While in previous IISEPS surveys public opinion of the Belarusian
economy had been rather static (ref A),the most recent polls showed
increased uneasiness. When asked what the most serious problems
were facing Belarus and its people, 84.2 per cent identified price
hikes, more than twice as many as identified the second most popular
response, unemployment (38.3 per cent).
3. (SBU) Respondents also demonstrated growing dissatisfaction with
their own economic fortunes. When asked how their own economic
situation had changed in the past three months, the proportion of
respondents who said their economic situation "got worse" more than
doubled since September 2007, while the percentage of respondents
who said their economic position improved or remained the same fell
by about six and twelve percentage points, respectively.
May '07 September '07 December '07
Improved 14.6 16.6 10.8
Remained Same 66.3 67.1 55.3
Worsened 17.7 15.6 32.4
Don't Know/No 1.4 0.7 1.5
Answer
Lukashenko's Popularity Continues to Slide
--------------
4. (SBU) The slow but steady decline of Aleksandr Lukashenko's
rating continued apace according to the latest data. When asked,
"If elections for President of Belarus were held tomorrow, for whom
would you vote?" Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating fell an additional
five per cent since the September '07 survey, roughly eleven
percentage points on the year. A slight dip in the support for
Aleksandr Milinkevich was statistically insignificant.
May '07 September '07 December '07
A. Lukashenko 48.0 44.9 39.9
A. Milinkevich 12.2 12.3 9.8
A. Kozulin 4.6 3.2 3.7
S. Gaydukevich 1.2 1.3 1.9
S. Sidorskiy
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIANS' FEAR OVER ECONOMY GROWS
REF: A. 07 Minsk 846
B. 07 Minsk 1012
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) According to independent nationwide polling data from
December 2007, public opinion on the state of the Belarusian economy
has become decidedly pessimistic. Eighty-five per cent of
respondents identified price hikes as one of the most serious
problems facing the country, while the portion of respondents who
said their family's economic position worsened in the past three
months doubled. In other significant changes, Aleksandr
Lukashenko's popularity continued a slow, steady decline, while
attitudes toward the EU improved. End summary.
Price Increases on the Minds of Average Belarusians
-------------- --------------
2. (SBU) Minsk's Independent Institute for Social, Economic and
Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted its most recent nationwide
public opinion poll in December 2007, with a sample size of roughly
1500 respondents and a margin of error of three percentage points.
While in previous IISEPS surveys public opinion of the Belarusian
economy had been rather static (ref A),the most recent polls showed
increased uneasiness. When asked what the most serious problems
were facing Belarus and its people, 84.2 per cent identified price
hikes, more than twice as many as identified the second most popular
response, unemployment (38.3 per cent).
3. (SBU) Respondents also demonstrated growing dissatisfaction with
their own economic fortunes. When asked how their own economic
situation had changed in the past three months, the proportion of
respondents who said their economic situation "got worse" more than
doubled since September 2007, while the percentage of respondents
who said their economic position improved or remained the same fell
by about six and twelve percentage points, respectively.
May '07 September '07 December '07
Improved 14.6 16.6 10.8
Remained Same 66.3 67.1 55.3
Worsened 17.7 15.6 32.4
Don't Know/No 1.4 0.7 1.5
Answer
Lukashenko's Popularity Continues to Slide
--------------
4. (SBU) The slow but steady decline of Aleksandr Lukashenko's
rating continued apace according to the latest data. When asked,
"If elections for President of Belarus were held tomorrow, for whom
would you vote?" Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating fell an additional
five per cent since the September '07 survey, roughly eleven
percentage points on the year. A slight dip in the support for
Aleksandr Milinkevich was statistically insignificant.
May '07 September '07 December '07
A. Lukashenko 48.0 44.9 39.9
A. Milinkevich 12.2 12.3 9.8
A. Kozulin 4.6 3.2 3.7
S. Gaydukevich 1.2 1.3 1.9
S. Sidorskiy