BELARUSIANS' FEAR OVER ECONOMY GROWS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000008 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR BO SUBJECT: BELARUSIANS' FEAR OVER ECONOMY GROWS REF: A. 07 Minsk 846 ¶B. 07 Minsk 1012 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) According to independent nationwide polling data from December 2007, public opinion on the state of the Belarusian economy has become decidedly pessimistic. Eighty-five per cent of respondents identified price hikes as one of the most serious problems facing the country, while the portion of respondents who said their family's economic position worsened in the past three months doubled. In other significant changes, Aleksandr Lukashenko's popularity continued a slow, steady decline, while attitudes toward the EU improved. End summary. Price Increases on the Minds of Average Belarusians -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Minsk's Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted its most recent nationwide public opinion poll in December 2007, with a sample size of roughly 1500 respondents and a margin of error of three percentage points. While in previous IISEPS surveys public opinion of the Belarusian economy had been rather static (ref A),the most recent polls showed increased uneasiness. When asked what the most serious problems were facing Belarus and its people, 84.2 per cent identified price hikes, more than twice as many as identified the second most popular response, unemployment (38.3 per cent). ¶3. (SBU) Respondents also demonstrated growing dissatisfaction with their own economic fortunes. When asked how their own economic situation had changed in the past three months, the proportion of respondents who said their economic situation "got worse" more than doubled since September 2007, while the percentage of respondents who said their economic position improved or remained the same fell by about six and twelve percentage points, respectively. May '07 September '07 December '07 Improved 14.6 16.6 10.8 Remained Same 66.3 67.1 55.3 Worsened 17.7 15.6 32.4 Don't Know/No 1.4 0.7 1.5 Answer Lukashenko's Popularity Continues to Slide -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The slow but steady decline of Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating continued apace according to the latest data. When asked, "If elections for President of Belarus were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?" Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating fell an additional five per cent since the September '07 survey, roughly eleven percentage points on the year. A slight dip in the support for Aleksandr Milinkevich was statistically insignificant. May '07 September '07 December '07 ¶A. Lukashenko 48.0 44.9 39.9 ¶A. Milinkevich 12.2 12.3 9.8 ¶A. Kozulin 4.6 3.2 3.7 ¶S. Gaydukevich 1.2 1.3 1.9 ¶S. Sidorskiy